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Quick Hitter Obs/Nowcast, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The fronto stuff we said to look for near H6 to H7. I think this morning I was wondering if it would be a little more south, but this looks like what I thought yesterday. I think the one thing I didn’t agree with was with northern mass. That seemed to high. I thought 4-6 here yesterday and then 2-4 this morning. That will be too low.

Nobody had 20 to 1 ratios either. I guarantee a lot of people will have ratios close to that number. 

 

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2 minutes ago, swimmm said:

I'm in Franklin, MA, under the band in Norfolk county (though I think maybe not the heaviest of it)... Been steady, heavy, huuuge flakes since about 11:30. 6" on my deck including 2" in the last hour. Been a long time since it's piled up this quick!

PXL_20210207_194646449.jpg

Keep us posted thought you’d be much higher considering radar returns. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Nobody had 20 to 1 ratios either. I guarantee a lot of people will have ratios close to that number. 

 

I guess when I look back and saw the DGZ getting annihilated on the mesos, I’m not surprised. I even noted yesterday some models had a good cross hair sig.

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are missing my point. There are folks on this board that go 100% with what snowfall maps show . They make forecasts off of them, draw maps to them, get angry when they are too low and elated when they are high. I am saying they need to look at more than silly maps . And if you did that for this .. especially on the higher resolution stuff, they showed the potential . I don’t think the globals did as much 

Ahhh ok.  I think we are talking past each other. The only reason those higher res models showed the potential is because they were way too wet, but in this case because of the high ratios it looks like it's working out.

The HREF looks like it must operate on some other algorithm instead of 10:1 snowfall... because the QPF looks more like the Global model QPF... but it has higher ratio snowfall.  Interesting, I thought that would default to 10:1.  

Anyway, not to clutter up the thread with this.  Basically anytime ratios are 20:1 or higher you'll get a positive bust.  That band is still incredible.

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4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I mean the observations right now, CHH is heavy snow, mist, 32F, vis 0.25 sm, NE winds, and the bands are setting up NE to SW which favors a pivot location over the Cape.  It is incredible snowfall right now over my area.  Radar looks fascinating.  The band over the Cape is being fed by a southerly feed or southeasterly feed, just watch the radar in close over the CAPE, incredible dynamics right now.  Would not be surprised to see temps continue to drop below 30F as the heaviest snow band sets up.  Also 12"+ is certainly plausible.  WOW!

Glad to hear you are finally getting your snowstorm James. Looks like a lot of us in SNE are happy. Always glad when the Cape snow lovers get in on the game.

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kuchera was less! Getting smoked 

Kuchie can underestimate if you're getting deformed with sfc temps relatively warm at 30F+. As long as the crystals aren't melting or sublimating on the way down all that matters is the temp and lift in the DGZ. Oct 2011 was kinda like that up here. It was high ratio under the deformation despite 2m temps of 31-32F.

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5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Nah from what ive seen Kuchera was terrible. Barely higher than 10-1. I usually use BUFKIT for ratios but even for this storm it was too low. I pointed out yesterday there would be some greath growth NW of that 600-800 avgd fronto band but didnt expect us to see 20:1+. Even though the model output was paltry on the qpf there was the potential for some great rates over central and E CT.

It's because models had a warm near surface layer. Like 34-35. That will knock back Kuchera ratios since it takes the highest temp below 500 mb.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess when I look back and saw the DGZ getting annihilated on the mesos, I’m not surprised. I even noted yesterday some models had a good cross hair sig.

When you mentioned the cross hair siggy I looked at a few select soundings for SNE. Under the band definitely had the 15-20:1 potential.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It's because models had a warm near surface layer. Like 34-35. That will knock back Kuchera ratios since it takes the highest temp below 500 mb.

When you mentioned the cross hair siggy I looked at a few select soundings for SNE. Under the band definitely had the 15-20:1 potential.

I feel like when the frontogenesis and sig lines up, lock in the fluff bomb. 

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

2.25" here in Hubbardston.   Nice rates right now...  Prob will come close to or eclipse my max range I forecast for MBY

I'm going to come in with less than my minimum range forecast of 1- 2"    :lol:

Never really got going here outside of an hour or two of steady -SN 

26/20   Flurries.

Hubbardston is on it's way to almost doubling Greenfield totals for the current season.  :o  

I think you are about 30mi East of me?

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess when I look back and saw the DGZ getting annihilated on the mesos, I’m not surprised. I even noted yesterday some models had a good cross hair sig.

Yeah...the key is buying it though. So did we believe the 3km NAM? Most of us prob thought it was too zonked. It prob will still verify as too zonked since it was giving ORH like 0.75 of qpf. 

I knew the ratios would be good in the band but the question was how high would they be just outside the band and where would the band line up? 

It’s really hard to forecast based on high ratios. I’ve been burned before on that. 

But either way, I figured this would be a really fun nowcast event. Hasn’t disappointed. We’re getting smoked here and we’re not even in the heart of the band. 

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