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Additional 1-5" snow mostly North of I80 Tuesday Feb 9


wdrag
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57 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Actually, upon further investigation snow ratios should be very favorable tomorrow here inland...talking probably right around 15:1 for a majority of the event. wouldn’t be shocked if someone maxes out between 8-9” in elevations where it stays the coldest longest, with most probably getting 3-6”

Just saw this post, yes indeed

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1 hour ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

Its gonna snow where it wants to snow ..id say this stays mostly snow in nyc,maybe mixing at the imm coast and l.i...

Agree. I think immediate south shore of LI and immediate coastal areas of the city mix, 1-3 inches for North Shore/Bronx/Immediate NW burbs, maybe 2-4 or higher NW of I287

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2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Why would this come in warm for tomorrow?

The low is offshore. Airmass decent.

Rain to 84 seems unlikely

Agree I have developed a rule which so far has had some success in predicting storms. If it starts below freezing in the city and no there is no strong mid level warmth expect it to perform well, if it starts above freezing in the city but strong dynamics (ex: yesterday) expect it to perform. Any other scenarios expect totals to bust low. This one starts below freezing in the city.  (there is some mid level warmth but with a weak low tracking off the coast I wouldn't expect it to be that strong) 

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19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree I have developed a rule which so far has had some success in predicting storms. If it starts below freezing in the city and no there is no strong mid level warmth expect it to perform well, if it starts above freezing in the city but strong dynamics (ex: yesterday) expect it to perform. Any other scenarios expect totals to bust low. This one starts below freezing in the city.  (there is some mid level warmth but with a weak low tracking off the coast I wouldn't expect it to be that strong) 

Well, NWS Albany has me all snow but with a 35* high tomorrow and I'm 20 miles north of 84 so they are buying some some warming apparently. 

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4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Well, NWS Albany has me all snow but with a 35* high tomorrow and I'm 20 miles north of 84 so they are buying some some warming apparently. 

Upton has Orange/Putnam counties to your south maxing out in the low 30s and even has my area at the border of the city as all snow tomorrow so the two NWS don't seem to agree

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z NAM south

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_21.png

Pretty significant south shift from its ridiculously warm 12z run. Still not enough as it keeps the 1 inch of snow line slightly north of NYC, but another shift like this on the 0z run tonight would put NYC in the game. This certainly gives hope that there's at least a slight chance that RGEM is right with the snowy solution.

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15 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Winter weather advisory up for 3-4" of snow tomorrow. 

OKX just posted for some too.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
328 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-091000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.210209T0900Z-210210T0600Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-
Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
328 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
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