Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Additional 1-5" snow mostly North of I80 Tuesday Feb 9


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

649A/8. Little change to the thread, except greater emphasis on snow event. Hazardous snowfall of 2-5" for the entire I84 corridor. Mostly the daylight hours but starts ne PA/nw NJ 3A-6A; CT-MA 7A-9A. Will melt on treated roads but caution advised hills and secondarys. Heaviest NORTH of I84, especially northern CT where ~4" common. Expect 1-3" here in northern NJ possibly down to Easton PA as well. Could be a little ice I80 southward too. Plan for possible travel slowdowns. NYC-LI--- looks like snow to start but melts during the late morning afternoon and may change to rain?  My take is 1/2" NYC but uncertain.  I just worry about melting-like yesterday when probably more fell than the 4.5 recorded but melted-compacted due to urban heat.  

WPC probs issued early this morning for 1 and 4". Use-rely upon as you prefer.  It's going to snow, even NYC but how much NYC-LI and central NJ??

 

 

716A/7  No change to this thread. Think this is reasonable.  NYC might get a little wet snow accumulation from this but still on the margins. Will look at this much more closely Monday morning.  Overall...a minor event except for where a few vehicles slide off the road along the I84 corridor or folks slip and fall stepping outside in that area, even down into the suburbs immediately west and north of NYC.  Sometimes most of the accidents are in these small events.  Therefore, even though a minor climo event for the wintry weather elements, it's still significant for those who are directly impacted. 

 

It appears LI (NYC) and the region along and s of I78 will be too warm for any accumulative snow, but it is not impossible to see several hours of wet snow there as well with something minor, especially if it arrives prior to 9AM.  

This primarily looks to be ne PA/nw NJ potentially hazardous snow event across to CT/MA. Amounts east of the CT River may end up closer to the 5" of the expected 1-5" range.  This is a WAA pattern behind the departing Super Bowl Sunday event. Tentatively expect all treated valley and coastal roads will be mostly wet but  could be slippery at times? Hilly terrain should be slippery at times, despite treatment.  This water content, while minor, adds to the accumulations already on the ground and well insulated or unheated roofs PA/NJ/NYS/CT. 

Will add more graphics tomorrow, once we get past Super Sunday. The initial graphic is the low chance of 3"+ of snow per the WPC ensembles. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-06 at 7.37.28 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-02-08_at_5_24.11_AM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-02-08_at_5_25.09_AM.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, wdrag said:

It appears LI (NYC) and the region along and s of I78 will be too warm for any accumulative snow, but it is not impossible to see several hours of wet snow there as well with something minor, especially if it arrives prior to 9AM.  

This primarily looks to be ne PA/nw NJ potentially hazardous snow event across to CT/MA. Amounts east of the CT River may end up closer to the 5" of the expected 1-5" range.  This is a WAA pattern behind the departing Super Bowl Sunday event. Tentatively expect all treated valley and coastal roads will be mostly wet but  could be slippery at times? Hilly terrain should be slippery at times, despite treatment.  This water content, while minor, adds to the accumulations already on the ground and well insulated or unheated roofs PA/NJ/NYS/CT. 

Will add more graphics tomorrow, once we get past Super Sunday. The initial graphic is txh'e low chance of 3"+ of snow per the WPC ensembles. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-06 at 7.37.28 AM.png

Today’s 18z GFS 24 hour snowfall map for the Tuesday event.

 

165E4F9D-5ABE-4DE0-99D4-822F20A93807.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

716A/7  No change to this thread. Think this is reasonable.  NYC might get a little wet snow accumulation from this but still on the margins. Will look at this much more closely Monday morning.  Overall...a minor event except for where a few vehicles slide off the road along the I84 corridor or folks slip and fall stepping outside in that area, even down into the suburbs immediately west and north of NYC.  Sometimes most of the accidents are in these small events.  Therefore, even though a minor climo event for the wintry weather elements, it's still significant for those who are directly impacted. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay pinned this topic

Tuesday the 9th: Hazardous snowfall of 2-5" for the entire I84 corridor. Mostly the daylight hours but starts ne PA/nw NJ 3A-6A; CT-MA 7A-9A. Will melt on treated roads but caution advised hills and secondarys. Heaviest NORTH of I84, especially northern CT where ~4" common. Expect 1-3" here in northern NJ possibly down to Easton PA as well. Could be a little ice I80 southward too. Plan for possible travel slowdowns. NYC-LI--- looks like snow to start but melts during the late morning afternoon and may change to rain?  My take is 1/2" NYC but uncertain.  I just worry about melting-like yesterday when probably more fell than the 4.5 recorded but melted-compacted due to urban heat.  

WPC probs issued early this morning for 1 and 4". Use-rely as you prefer.  It's going to snow, even NYC but how much NYC-LI and central NJ??

Screen_Shot_2021-02-08_at_5_24.11_AM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-02-08_at_5_25.09_AM.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

This mornings GFS very aggressive with the HV for tomorrows storm. The 6 inches seems overdone, but in this current pattern maybe not. When it wants to snow in your area you run with it as long as you can.

 

gfs_asnow24_neus_4[1].png

Pretty incredible stretch in what had been a lackluster winter until about a week ago. I’ll take it all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, gmendevils8204 said:

Pretty incredible stretch in what had been a lackluster winter until about a week ago. I’ll take it all.

Hopefully the snow will expand a bit south, but we'll still take the mood flakes. I've no rationale as to why it would, but things seem to be overperforming a bit this year.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting that 12z NAM came in warm, but 12z RGEM just came in much colder. Watched the color loop and the darker blues get down to north central NJ and NYC. It looks as if it gets a few inches of snow all the way down to NYC, and has very significant amounts for northern NJ. Difficult forecast with such a huge difference between NAM and RGEM. Hopefully they will come together at 18z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Why would this come in warm for tomorrow?

The low is offshore. Airmass decent.

Rain to 84 seems unlikely

It's definitely puzzling how warm NAM is. Hopefully RGEM has the right idea. Really tough to make a forecast right now with RGEM giving NYC 4 inches of snow while NAM gives nothing at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...