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Super Bowl Sunday Snow Show


Stovepipe
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Anyone else lost trying to decipher that AFD..so they are basing the advisory area with where the warm nose lines up, but the warm nose will have little impact on the ptype? Moisture moves out right as warm nose exits? I'm lost lol.. here's latest HRRR with 850c, looks like nose is gone and bulk of the moisture is behind the nose.Screenshot_20210206-162503_Chrome.jpg.487d14cd05829038ddeab7510d9ddbf4.jpg

Screenshot_20210206-162434_Chrome.jpg

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1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Anyone else lost trying to decipher that AFD..so they are basing the advisory area with where the warm nose lines up, but the warm nose will have little impact on the ptype? Moisture moves out right as warm nose exits? I'm lost lol.. here's latest HRRR with 850c, looks like nose is gone and bulk of the moisture is behind the nose.Screenshot_20210206-162503_Chrome.jpg.487d14cd05829038ddeab7510d9ddbf4.jpg

Screenshot_20210206-162434_Chrome.jpg

My confusion started with the models, so they went with 4 models and all 3 Hr models were golden then they post that. Very confusing to the general public lol 

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My confusion started with the models, so they went with 4 models and all 3 Hr models were golden then they post that. Very confusing to the general public lol 

That was my thoughts. When I read the 4 mods they are rolling with I was expecting 2-4” north of 40


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Not CAD, 850s are below 0 all way down into that area. Sounding has some very dry air, then 850s crash..what can make it thru is falling as sleet.
Screenshot_20210206-171823_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ca0b7a79e0e6ea2d6cffddbd9e6a696a.jpg
Screenshot_20210206-171734_Chrome.thumb.jpg.5327aad4e4d51336cd99bb8c04f523f9.jpg

That’s going to take a strong push for Knoxville, north to get above 0c IMO. Unless there’s a warm layer somewhere else in the column.


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Downsloping, warm nose, snow bubble is right over the home base. Can see it in all model predictions and the National Weather Service disco. #superbowlsnowshowfail
I just can't see model increases in precipitation mattering all that much

Where’s the home base?


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