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Super Bowl Sunday Snow Show


Stovepipe
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From MRX afternoon update.

Main focus will be the Saturday afternoon through early Sunday
morning system. The vertical temperature profile makes this
forecast, as always, tricky and quite variable across the forecast
area. Will rely heavily on ensembles to help fine-tune the area
forecast but latest operational model runs of the NAM, GFS, and
ECMWF are aligning to a potential significant snowfall.

 

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Euro is slightly NW like the rest of the 12z suite.  Its western edge of snow accumulation has definitely trended west over the forum area.  Looks like modeling is defiantly relying on the backside of the precip to be enhanced as the system along the coast pulls northward.  

I think that backside shield will help out totals west of the mountains. The 12z nam went from no backside at 06z to a pretty robust shield of precip.  Hopefully that continues to beef up as we get inside a day this evening.  Nice little “surprise” event.

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ICON model gets the Upper Plateau with accumulation too. It'll be cold enough at the surface all models. Thickness is low enough all models. See what the afternoon package says about the Plateau.

Nashville unfortunately is victim of the stubborn boundary layer, but could still pull off sticking snow if a heavier bust. Issue is easterly wind downslope off the Plateau and some partial thickness issues which reflect the problem. A slightly stronger comma head would overcome for at least a dusting Nashville. 

Knoxville faces the dreaded warm Valley boundary layer early; but relative to Nashville, may have more time in QPF while cold enough. Not thinking much for Chattanooga though. (Thanks John trying to help though, lol.)

On a positive, I think I like the system for northeast Tennessee into Virginia, and of course the Mountains. Maybe MRX yes TRI. Will have some Valley warm nose (partial thickness) issues mid-system, but should end cold with accumulating snow.

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5 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

It's like an old school Kuchera.  It takes into account melting and compaction for a usually more realistic snow total.

Interesting. I think for official measurements you are supposed to use a snowboard and sweep it clean every six hours. I've used a snowboard for several years now and it can vary quite a bit from old school ground measurements. If the ground is frozen solid, you'll get more with a ground measurement. If its warm and/or wet, you get significantly more on the snowboard. 

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I just think something is really off right now with modeling.  I will say it makes since with the trough amplification to have a storm move sharply north - that makes sense.   What doesn't make sense is why modeling took this long to get to this point.  It has been obvious for weeks.  We were dealing with out to see options just a few days ago.  I really think we are entering a time frame where we need to see the cold driven to the Gulf Coast, and then have the boundary work back north...in order to have a shot.

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If I was MRX, I would kick valley location decisions to the next shift.  LOL.  

MRX mentioned an inverted trough up the valley. If that is correct I can see the extra forcing helping with dynamic cooling. If that’s the case I can see this potentially busting on the high side.

 

 

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