BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'm starting to think more of 1-2" here... latest trends are not good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 21z rap is a crush job for the upstate and northeast Georgia. Jackpot band has already dropped .3/4 inch of liquid by 8pm across i85 in SC. Rain/snow line is down to Elberton/abbeville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Lookout!!!! Athens jackpot on the rap!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Lookout!!!! Athens jackpot on the rap!! Would take this model run and call it a winter here in the North Mecklenburg area! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The RAP is ugly for mountain folk. They’ve had their share of snow this year though right? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Lookout!!!! Athens jackpot on the rap!!I’d take it and run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The RAP is ugly for mountain folk. They’ve had their share of snow this year though right? Hoping they'd be willing to share the wealth this one time. How accurate has this model been over the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 21z rap and 18z hrrr line up pretty well with keeping the best forcing over the upstate and piedmont. Either they are both way off or the NAM is out to lunch. Time will tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 The HRRR is trending north though. Let's see what the 00z run says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The 21z rap and 18z hrrr line up pretty well with keeping the best forcing over the upstate and piedmont. Either they are both way off or the NAM is out to lunch. Time will tell. The rgem and the gfs are kinda middle ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 34 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Just did a shot of Captain Morgan with the GFS. good times ahead for 50% of the modeling haha Heh, I'm having a rum and coke right now. Funny how we forget that nearly every storm is like this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wow said: Heh, I'm having a rum and coke right now. Funny how we forget that nearly every storm is like this. Difference being, this one is 50/50 for the mountains with some of the short term models pushing everything south, which is a bit more rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 How did the 18z GFS ensembles look compared to the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I will start the next thread and it will be an epic one :+) With the luck we’ve been having, I say we don’t start threads until someone verifies the first half inch of an event. LOL 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 52 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Scrolling back in time there have been many threads started with the word threat or threats in them so I'm not the lone ranger, just saying! True enough. How did most of them turn out? You probably should have scrolled back before you titled the thread. It just reinforces that old saying, “those who don’t remember history, are doomed to repeat it”. What has happened to this world? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How did the 18z GFS ensembles look compared to the OP? Pretty well matched up. The mean trimmed some off the edges in basically all directions and lowered the totals along the escarpment a bit from 12z, probably just from eliminating some high outliers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 What a remarkable winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 All I gotta say is how bad are these models? Geesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 As much as I hate to say it. Never. Trust. In-situ CADS. This winter sucks. That’s all! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The last 2 pages have been free of pastings, puking snow, hammered, crushed, etc. See a pattern here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Avdave said: The last 2 pages have been free of pastings, puking snow, hammered, crushed, etc. See a pattern here i think plenty of people will wish they were hammered and might even end up puking once its all over lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 All I gotta say is how bad are these models? Geesh.Performance this year is just pathetic. Wandered through the digital snow and ice thread and have had over 20 inches modeled from about 5 separate events plus 1-2 ice storms since December inside 4 days.Result? One dusting. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z EUROSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Honestly it’s better to be let down before it happens than let down when it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z EURO Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk What’s so wrong with this? still get 2-3” verbatim along and NW of 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z EURO Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Nice shift south! I knew the 12z suite were outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 What’s so wrong with this? still get 2-3” verbatim along and NW of 85 Because 30 hours more of current trending will turn that into 37 degree rain for everyone in NC below 3000 ft elevation. Meanwhile Richmond north will bank another 5 inch event and whine about it lol.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Euro for Upstate/WNC/GA folks: Definite improvements from the 12z run. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Taken verbatim , the Euro would be right at 5" here. I'm not buying that unless the NAM comes back around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Euro for Upstate/WNC/GA folks: Definite improvements from the 12z run. Thanks. Some here think this is a North Carolina only forum.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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