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Feb 7th discussion/obs


The Iceman
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Everything seems like its kinda SE/less qpf today on modeling. I guess not all bad considering I was worried everything would keep going NW and the rt.130 corridor in Burlington would be mostly rain. Feels like its narrowed in on 95/Jersey tpk being the bullseye 3-6 maybe some isolated spots more

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59 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Ch6 seems a little high for my backyard, but I'll take it. My bar is set at 3".

34F/DP 25F

I think what happened is a lot of these maps came out yesterday when NAM was going nutty. It’s a weekend so they dont update them. Not like you can expect them to change every 6 hours. I’d be Absolutely stunned shocked if Philly got 8”, there’s just no way. This is a 3-5” event with Isolated 6-7” in NJ imo

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26 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I think what happened is a lot of these maps came out yesterday when NAM was going nutty. It’s a weekend so they dont update them. Not like you can expect them to change every 6 hours. I’d be Absolutely stunned shocked if Philly got 8”, there’s just no way. This is a 3-5” event with Isolated 6-7” in NJ imo

Yeah, they probably sent the weekend intern out on a Starbucks run instead of updating the wx graphics.

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Final call:

2-4" N and W of 95 with less the further out you go from 95.

4-8" Along 95 S and E about 25 miles 

1-4" along the shore... Will be tricky here, can rates eventually overcome boundary layer? 

 

I think 8" will be the max in our area, don't think anyone will hit double digits but should be a fun little event. I expect it to come down at a heavy rate for a good  2-3 hours. Will be a nice nowcasting storm as well with the banding. Make sure you set your alarms for tomorrow morning. 

 

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Final call:

2-4" N and W of 95 with less the further out you go from 95.

4-8" Along 95 S and E about 25 miles 

1-4" along the shore... Will be tricky here, can rates eventually overcome boundary layer? 

 

I think 8" will be the max in our area, don't think anyone will hit double digits but should be a fun little event. I expect it to come down at a heavy rate for a good  2-3 hours. Will be a nice nowcasting storm as well with the banding. Make sure you set your alarms for tomorrow morning. 

 

Good call on the alarms, what time you think the heavier rates will be?  After sunrise?

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17 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Somehow the SREF has a better chance of 12+ across south Jersey than 8+. I mean I'll take it I guess

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That seems to be almost a fallacy or bug.... wouldn't the probability of 8"+ be included in the mathematical intersection of 12"+ ....if it was the probability of 8-12" then it would make sense as the probability of 8-12" would be part of the complement of the probability of 12"+     :rolleyes::arrowhead:

Of course weenie rule #119 is never look modeled snow in the mouth! 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like precip comes in at 12z/7 am. My best guess at the heavy stuff would be 9 - noon but I'm getting up at 5 just to watch it come in lol:weenie:

I could weenie tag your post just in good fun but didn’t. I am a late riser but if I get up, I will check things.

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Good morning everyone! 

29F and cloudy here in Hopewell, don't think we ll have any issues starting as rain here. Maybe towards 95 though as Levittown is 33f, NE Philly is 34f, and PHL is 36f. DC having a bit of issues with the bl to start but they're just getting into the heavier stuff so we ll see if they switch over soon.

 

 

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