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Feb 7th discussion/obs


The Iceman
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38 minutes ago, Animal said:

Not sure yesterday... weak people were upset with me regarding my bust thread.  

Easy does it-- lets just keep the forum rules in mind. This is intended to be a somewhat professional foum. Professional forecasters (and high level ametuers) tend to get upset with people that get overly emotional with forecast/outcome. If we want those valued contributers to continue to grace our presence here we should keep their user experience in mind. We have the added responsibility here that we are self moderated in this forum. 

 

21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

If there is an elephant in the room here the air mass in place is tepid cold so it's a close call

For that reason I think the quicker the storm the better. I'm hoping for a regular old blitz blizzard. So quick it never has a chance to warm up.... Earlier probably helps us out too with the precip type. I think these kinds of setups work out well for us NW of 95. They are almost like mini-miller A's. The frontgensis aspect of this storm might be getting over amped by the NAM especially the hi-res. I have a feeling the Euro has a good final answer to this storm despite being 1000 miles off course 36ish hours ago! Never under estimate having snow on the ground for helping with temperatures. Snow comes to snow like money comes to money! 

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2 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Indeed she does look a bit underprepared! When in doubt do as the nws! I think her forecasting has improved over the last 10 years and this situation is fairly textbook for the met vetrans in the area. Probably a good call but could see this map getting amounts reduced and moved N & W. 

Canadian agrees 

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1 minute ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Indeed she does look a bit underprepared! When in doubt do as the nws! I think her forecasting has improved over the last 10 years and this situation is fairly textbook for the met vetrans in the area. Probably a good call but could see this map getting amounts reduced and moved N & W. 

Considering my location, I hope.

Overall I'll be happy w/3"+....not that long ago this thing was a no-go.

34F

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Sorry, I have little respect for her forecasting skills. Don't know  why they still use Accu Weather, when they have their own mets.  We all know the reason she is there, and also Brittney Shipp is the chief met at NBC10.  I will take Glen, DT, and the NWS over those two any day of the week, seven days a week.  For the folks that have WFMZ,  Allentown, their mets are pretty good as well 

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1 minute ago, Prairie Dog said:

Sorry, I have little respect for her forecasting skills.  We all know the reason she is there, and also Brittney Shipp is the chief met at NBC10.  I will take Glen, DT, and the NWS over those two any day of the week, seven days a week.  For the folks that have WFMZ,  Allentown, their mets are pretty good as well 

This thread isn't to debate vendor mets but I find that the WFMZ forecasters are pretty good, I think they get the broadcast/scientist mix correct. Personally I think Cecily has a broad appeal, however I notice she has a tendency to "lawyer" her forecasts to protect against the downside.

 

10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Canadian agrees 

From what I've come to understand is that the Candian is a bit of an after thought for many forecasters. I notice it does best in our area with ice events where there is a lot of bombogensis going on. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

RGEM ticked NW and EPS looks better for SE PA. 3-6" is looking good. Maybe some lollis of 8" in the best banding just to the NW of I95.

Sounds about right. The rgem ticking was huge. I think the better totals will be just east of 95 though, but I guess climo argues otherwise. Regardless anyone complaining about even 3-4” a few days after a mecs and with another event in the day 6 vicinity is nuts. This is awesome! Let’s get some tsnow tomorrow

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Sounds about right. The rgem ticking was huge. I think the better totals will be just east of 95 though, but I guess climo argues otherwise. Regardless anyone complaining about even 3-4” a few days after a mecs and with another event in the day 6 vicinity is nuts. This is awesome! Let’s get some tsnow tomorrow

Well anyone that does get the TSnow gets over 6” 

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8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Sounds about right. The rgem ticking was huge. I think the better totals will be just east of 95 though, but I guess climo argues otherwise. Regardless anyone complaining about even 3-4” a few days after a mecs and with another event in the day 6 vicinity is nuts. This is awesome! Let’s get some tsnow tomorrow

The SSW is starting to do wonders. Weeklies are cold throughout this month.

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46 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Sounds about right. The rgem ticking was huge. I think the better totals will be just east of 95 though, but I guess climo argues otherwise. Regardless anyone complaining about even 3-4” a few days after a mecs and with another event in the day 6 vicinity is nuts. This is awesome! Let’s get some tsnow tomorrow

6z HerpesDerpster

hrdps_asnow_neus_41.png

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It wouldn't be right if I didn't voice my concerns. No doubt per the mesos there will be insane f gen lifting and banding of precip in far SE PA and across the river into parts of NJ. However, as is evident on the mesos, BL temps are an issue going into this. Some areas are going to start as sleet or even plain rain (and likely struggle for a bit to flip). Now, most guidance suggests under the heavier banding that temps mix down to the BL and flip to snow quickly. My concern is what happens alongside the heavier banding? We usually see subsidence and lighter rates. That is a concern. Whatever spots fall under subsidence and don't get into the heavier banding are going to struggle to accumulate. I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated spots only seeing a slushy inch or so where 10 miles away they have 5"+ of paste. Going to be interesting to watch unfold, but I think those concerns are legit going in. Someone is going to get screwed while up the road the get a golden shovel. Keep your expectations low for this one and hope for the best lift to occur over your house.

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I would also feel more comfy if this was night and not happening during the day with the marginal BL.

Yes especially for lower elevations Delaware River SE fall line elevations that are higher than 350 feet I’m okay with getting the 4-7” so long as banding is ongoing. 

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