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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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Just now, RDM said:

Yup - can relate to the same thing.  Used to live in W. Spfd near Old Keene Mill and Rolling and saw the effects you are talking about there.  Now we're at 385' asl just NW of Vienna.  Even though Tyson's is near 500' they often get reduced by the heat island effect.  A little further to the east and Falls Church often gets 2-3" when we get 4-5".  Just little to the west and a little higher and away from the concrete helps a lot, especially when on the margins.  

 

Hello old neighbor!  I used to live in that exact area until I moved to Fairfax a few months ago... snowing pretty well here right now

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am very pleased with my yard but kinda disappointed for everyone else. Was pulling for a more amplified coastal so we had a region wide celebration. This seems pretty elevation dependent. 

Seems to be verifying as the most likely outcome for the setup leading in. Inline with my thoughts. A sprinting storm with much of the area at or above freezing rarely if ever produces anything "big" in these parts. I think I've joined @Ian with putting climo in front of models with all events and adjusting accordingly. Makes me feel smart but climo has been around many thousands of years longer than me. I aint that smart. My memory is good enough tho

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10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yup. I’m west of the fall line at 325’ or so, which definitely has made a difference in these kinds of events in the past. I’ve mentioned this in discussions on here with H20, with 12/5/09 being one event that really sticks out as one that produced here but not so much in your neck of the woods.

I lived in Baltimore in the early 2000s, and I remember a few small events back then when Baltimore would end up with 1 to 3 or even 3 to 5 inches, while very little fell in DC.  Now, our fate seems more closely connected than had been the case. Maybe just coincidence since it seems like we get fewer smallish snow events in general now. But I do wonder if something else is at work.

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Snow picking up again here. Looks like a nice band forming again over Leesburg and Western Loudoun
My 3-6 for wintry mix looks like it will verify. I was tempted to post last night and cut back but I saw radar....knew Loudoun usually wins in marginal setups and said...nah lol
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