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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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@Bob Chill I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z.  One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now.  We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Gotcha. I was just going off precip and it didn’t look all that different to me

Yeah it’s splitting hairs because neither run was particularly good, but in general for most of us, it trended even worse. It’s the HRRR so who knows if it’s right but still don’t like the fact that for the most part everything has trended drier 

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[mention=2035]Bob Chill[/mention] I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z.  One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now.  We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario. 
Is there a reason every storm since 2016 with the exception of 2019 has trended the wrong way for us right before gametime?
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19 minutes ago, Ji said:
47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
[mention=2035]Bob Chill[/mention] I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z.  One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now.  We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario. 

Is there a reason every storm since 2016 with the exception of 2019 has trended the wrong way for us right before gametime?

We’re paying the price for 2010 to 2016.  We’ve had periods when everything trended our way more then it should have. Remember all those waves in 2014 and 2015 that looked like nothing 72 hours out and we got 6”+ of snow.   It’s just been not our luck lately. It will turn around. My guess very soon.  First let’s not totally give up on tomorrow. Weirder things have happened. Maybe this pulls one of those NW bands no guidance picks up on. But the pattern ahead will be very difficult not to score in. We will have LOTS of chances. If somehow we fail every time we need to figure out who in here drank Jobu’s rum right quick. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re paying the price for 2010 to 2016.  We’ve had periods when everything trended our way more then it should have. Remember all those waves in 2014 and 2015 that looked like nothing 72 hours out and we got 6”+ of snow.   It’s just been not our luck lately. It will turn around. My guess very soon.  First let’s not totally give up on tomorrow. Weirder things have happened. Maybe this pulls one of those NW bands no guidance picks up on. But the pattern ahead will be very difficult not to score in. We will have LOTS of chances. If somehow we fail every time we need to figure out who in here drank Jobu’s rum right quick. 

LoathsomeBriskIchidna-size_restricted.gi

 

38.5/15.1

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Final call map below 

Made significant changes based on latest trends in guidance. Hopefully they revert back a bit and screw over my map. Still a nice storm for some. The metros may never accumulate one inch due to UHI hell. Don't feel like writing a synopsis this evening. I'm tired and have a few things to do tonight. I'll check in after the 00z NAM runs and the HREF starts populating. 

1222513445_MASnowForecast2-6-21.thumb.png.d8f711e06dd3178e3cdb167c64f095af.png

Probably want to post this in the right thread

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32 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:
[mention=2035]Bob Chill[/mention] I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z.  One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now.  We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario. 

Is there a reason every storm since 2016 with the exception of 2019 has trended the wrong way for us right before gametime?

I actually agree. I wouldn’t care if it was just 2”. I’d just like for models in unison to get better as we approach game time. It adds excitement 

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