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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Lots of “mays” plus low confidence nonsense in that statement 

the ow confidence malarkey needs to go.  I do like CWG boom and bust but not the tapping about low confidence

Confident to me means you think it is 80-100% gonna happen. I really don’t even know what low confidence is supposed to mean, it’s like  sweet sour . You think it is low probability?  Thats  not confidence in any form . Get back to me when you are willing to state a forecast  without weasel disclaimers and qualifiers. 

 

NWS released a statement that Nostradamus was unavailable for this afternoon's discussion. They will make it up with winning lottery numbers later..

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Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

458 PM EST Sat Feb 06 2021 Valid 00Z Sun Feb 07 2021 - 00Z Wed Feb 10 2021

...Southern and Central Appalachians to the Northeast...

Day 1...

A southern stream shortwave moving across the Tennessee valley overnight, before lifting northeast along the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast coasts on Sunday, is expected to produce a fast-moving storm, with winter weather impacts from the southern Appalachians to New England. Initial winter weather impacts will begin this evening and continue overnight across the Cumberland Plateau into the southern and central Appalachians. Areas impacted by the heaviest snow accumulations are expected to include the Blue Ridge and southern Allegheny mountains, where localized amounts of 4-inches or more are likely. Overnight, as a surface low begins to develop along the Carolina coast, snow will likely begin to spread northeastward across the Piedmont into the Virginia and Maryland I-95 corridor. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty as to how far southeast accumulating snows will reach into southeastern Virginia, however an inch or more does look likely as far south as the Richmond metro. Heavier accumulations are more certain farther to the north, especially from northeastern Maryland to southern New York and southern New England. While the NAM is along the western edge of the guidance and is probably showing its typical bias of being too far north and west with its heavier amounts, the overall consensus of the guidance does show the potential for banded, heavier precipitation developing, that is supported by low-to-mid level frontogenesis and strong upper forcing on the northwest side of the low. This is most evident as the low moves southeast of Long Island and southeastern New England during the day on Sunday and is reflected in the higher probabilities for accumulations of 6-inches or more centered across Connecticut, Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts and far southern New Hampshire. Unlike the previous system, this storm is expected to move quickly to the northeast, tracking east of Nova Scotia Sunday night. This will brush the northern New England coast with at least a few inches of snow, with heavier amounts more likely across Down East Maine.

 

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12 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

NWS released a statement that Nostradamus was unavailable for this afternoon's discussion. They will make it up with winning lottery numbers later..

Lotteries are 50/50 anyway. You either win or you dont. Just like 12" tomorrow is 50/50. Math is only as complicated as you make it.

I'm 100% sure nobody on this planet knows exactly how tomorrow goes. THAT is confidence I can stand behind. This stuff isnt hard people. Sheesh

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3 minutes ago, Swiscaster said:

FCPS just caved.

How are 5pm surface temps compared to forecast?  I can’t see this sticking on the roads.

The main reason it wont stick to the roads is because weenies have been huffin and puffin and pantin all day. All that hot air has to be accounted for somewhere. Aint nothin free in wx. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Lotteries are 50/50 anyway. You either win or you dont. Just like 12" tomorrow is 50/50. Math is only as complicated as you make it.

I'm 100% sure nobody on this planet knows exactly how tomorrow goes. THAT is confidence I can stand behind. This stuff isnt hard people. Sheesh

I’ll take that bet. I am 100% sure the sun will rise, set, and Ji will make a terrible post

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It'll be interesting to see how long it takes to flip from a r/s mix to all snow once precip arrives. Is there a chance we start as all snow? Seems like most models have areas around and S/E of 95 getting close to .1" of precip before we flip to snow completely. A quicker flip would be a good sign for accumulation imo. 

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I’m at the Mount in Emmitsburg to drop my son off at school - there is about 2-3” in snowcover remaining in spots that didn’t get much sun.... but also none in spots that do. Wild. Nearly 30” gone in 5’ish days. Going to be great to get another fresh coating   

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lotteries are 50/50 anyway. You either win or you dont. Just like 12" tomorrow is 50/50. Math is only as complicated as you make it.

I'm 100% sure nobody on this planet knows exactly how tomorrow goes. THAT is confidence I can stand behind. This stuff isnt hard people. Sheesh

lol had a very similar convo with a fam member a few weeks ago and he was pretty convinced that everything is a 50/50 chance.  unfortunately, not how it works, though we certainly have a 50% chance that it will "attempt" to snow, just like how i have a 50% chance of "trying" to jump over the moon.

back to obs...just hiked a patapsco trail with my cousin and it certainly feels cold enough to snow.  actually, we were both commenting how it was a little bit chillier than we expected.  nam 12k didn't look too bad.  the lesser qpf might be correlated with the speed of the storm, so i could see how it might still put down some rates for a couple hours.

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6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

lol had a very similar convo with a fam member a few weeks ago and he was pretty convinced that everything is a 50/50 chance.  unfortunately, not how it works, though we certainly have a 50% chance that it will "attempt" to snow, just like how i have a 50% chance of "trying" to jump over the moon.

back to obs...just hiked a patapsco trail with my cousin and it certainly feels cold enough to snow.  actually, we were both commenting how it was a little bit chillier than we expected.  nam 12k didn't look too bad.  the lesser qpf might be correlated with the speed of the storm, so i could see how it might still put down some rates for a couple hours.

Think you guys are prime for 3-5 from Montgomery to Howard to Baltimore counties. I agree - current OBS look better (Temps & radar) than models depicted at this point. 

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