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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

You may need to give yourself a break. Step away from the models for a bit. Flip on Reelz channel and watch and see if Aerosmith can hang on through their breakup...

I’m at my Baltimore county Rec and parks job and there’s no recreation, so all I have to do is obsess over models on government wifi time:lol:

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3 minutes ago, T. August said:

The nam is ok until you realize the sfc isn’t freezing until you go 50 miles nw of 95.

It’s decent if you’ve been keeping your expectations in check. We knew all along this was going to be a 32-34 event.  Nothing much has changed except NAM QPF maps which always change run to run.  The low is basically in the same spot. 

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

It’s decent, good mix of all the models. 

Yea but it was the only model still showing a nice upside thump potential. You don’t want to see the most amped guidance trending towards the other more anemic. We want to see the anemic guidance trending towards the NAM lol. That is if we want a 4-8” storm and not a 2-4. I’ll still enjoy a few inches to freshen things up but I was kinda excited for the dynamic thump option we saw on guidance 24 hours ago. This is morphing into a more mundane nice but not memorable snowfall event on guidance today. Which kind of surprises me I honestly expected the amplification trend to continue. 

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NWS updated

The air aloft is cold enough to support snow, and despite the
warm conditions this afternoon, there should be enough dry air
for wetbulb cooling to take place, causing any rain or rain/snow
mix at the onset to change to snow for most areas. Even still,
temperatures will be marginal at the surface near to perhaps
even a degree or two above freezing across the metro areas and
southern MD, to perhaps near or a degree/two below freezing near
the Mason-Dixon Line and the higher elevations. Also, with the
warm conditions leading up to the event, that will affect the
SLR`s as well. Therefore, the accumulating snow will be
dependent on the heavier snowfall rates, which are possible
given the stronger frontogenetical forcing that is showing up in
much of the guidance. The banding snow may overtake the marginal
temperatures for a period Sunday morning, causing the snow to
accumulate. Have continued with the Winter Storm Warnings for
the Metro areas as well as northern and central Virginia, and
central Maryland. These areas have the best chance for heavier
precipitation with temps close enough to freezing for 3-6" most
likely. Farther west across the northern Shenandoah Valley into
the Potomac and Allegheny Highlands, Winter Weather Advisories
are up for 2-4" of snow most likely. Temperatures will be colder
leading to higher SLR`s, but the better chance for heavier
snowfall rates will be to the east. Across southern MD, a Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect. Despite the heaviest
precipitation rates across this area, temps will be a little
warmer causing snow to mix with rain at times.

The confidence in the forecast is lower than it would typically
be because, the snowfall accumulation will be dependent on
exactly where the heavier bands of snow setup since temps are
marginal.

Precipitation will move out of the area Sunday afternoon and
most areas will rise well above freezing, causing any snow that
does stick to melt. The one exception will be along the ridges
of the Allegheny Highlands.
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If the ECMWF is truth, College Park is looking at a 4 AM start with perhaps an inch per hour from 6 am till noon; temperatures holding steady through the morning at a workable 33 before touching 40 mid-afternoon  - coldest morning of the year on Monday (wouldn't take much here, I haven't seen less than 23)

416894109_9-kmECMWFUSAPressure06_18zKCGSPrecipitationType.thumb.png.bae2d6154b0b16c9b4c0c2c9c65da9ed.png

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I was looking at 3k. It’s not out far enough yet but man it looks kinda ehh at 8z Sunday compared to prior runs. The difference is a much less amplified trough so there is less moisture transport along the inverted trough with the NS low. The coastal looks about the same but a lot of our qpf was from the interaction with the trough and there is a lot less of that going on this run. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

3k is warmer, dryer, and less amplified. But other then that it’s great. 

This is getting uneventful if you wanted the exciting fast and furious snow. That’s for sure. Keep expectations in check. Thought we might amp further as well but can’t win em all. We’ll see what the ground truth is, Radar looks okay. 

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