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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fastest week ever and my weeks already go by in a blink. Nothing technical to add. Excellent job ITT for me to quick scan and go (or go to sleep) this week.

I do want to sincerely thank mets @MillvilleWx @csnavywx @high risk for their outstanding posts about fronto, jet structure, and model guidance considerations when parsing thru suites among other things. I live for this stuff man. It helps build a "concept" versus verbatim surface panel output. That stuff is really important if you want to conceptualize what's going on top to bottom instead of snow map central (not knocking. I like snow maps too!). The only way you can "out think" a model is by understanding the mechanics of what's approaching and drawing your own "painting" in your head.

I had a blast last weekend but it reminded me how easy it is to get sucked in to the wrong idea. One thing we're all guilty of is "maybe it's different this time" with a setup. Sometimes it is but using history as a guide for the future is powerful. In tne end, last weekend went just like I was thinking leading in. I'm pretty damn thankful to get the 6" I eeked out. Thru similar storm history it was an overperformer. Dont lose sight of that. Even if it felt blah on Sunday

The upcoming event should be a blast. Radar extrapolation will work well this time. No worries about needing all kinds of crazy things to line up. We just want to be in the stripe and so far we are. I remember on mon-tues seeing the gfs keeping us in the dead space median strip while energy passed north and south at the same time. My first thought was "this never happens in reality". Memory of past events and your backyard climo is more accurate than just model output alone. 

When you say radar extrapolation will work this time, Are you referring to the ease with which will be able to track the storm in real time rather than relying on the development or transfer of energy and ensuing creation of energy and precipitation? Or are you using a technical term that I am not aware of?

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Nice discussion by Mount Holly, with sufficient dirty talk included.

In terms of sensible weather with the storm, expect snow to develop SW to NE near or shortly after midnight Saturday night. The precip could start as rain over southern Delmarva and parts of southern NJ but as cooling effects take hold it will change to all snow. The brunt of the storm looks to hit into Sunday morning as deepening low pressure tracks northeast off the coast. There should be strong forcing for ascent over the area due to right jet entrance dynamics and also the mid level low looks to track right near the area as it start to close off. The upshot is we expect snow, heavy at times, through the morning with still some question on exactly where the heaviest bands set up. Heaviest bands of snow will likely be near or just north of the mid level low in the strongest F-Gen forcing. Rates in the heaviest bands are likely to be 1-2 inches per hour creating significantly reduced visibility. Most of the forecast area should be all snow Sunday with the exception being southern Delmarva and parts of coastal NJ where a mix with or change to rain and sleet will be possible. But this will depend on the exact track of the storm. A track closer to the coast will result in more mixing near the coast with the heaviest snow near or even north of I-95 while a track farther east will result in mostly all snow even at the coast potentially bringing the highest snow amounts here. Generally favoring a track close enough to the coast to bring at least some mixing here with our highest snow amounts of 6+ inches currently forecast in a swath near the I-95 corridor. But again, confidence still fairly low on these exact details despite growing confidence of the storm impacting the region. Also, within the area we are currently forecasting 6-8 inches there will likely be an area that gets 8-12+ inches in the heaviest bands.

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5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Hello Bob!!  Now we know it's on!  Good to see you...and nice dissertation you wrote up a few posts back!

I'm more excited/less nervous with this one than last. I'm not expecting big totals but the potential exists for the lucky folks under meso bands. One could be in an unusual area east of 95. Or cape's hood. Band locations are real time. That makes these storms fun. And fun to watch when it's dumping. I'm guessing 3-6 in my yard. We'll see

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm more excited/less nervous with this one than last. I'm not expecting big totals but the potential exists for the lucky folks under meso bands. One could be in an unusual area east of 95. Or cape's hood. Band locations are real time. That makes these storms fun. And fun to watch when it's dumping. I'm guessing 3-6 in my yard. We'll see

Agreed.  This one is MUCH more relaxing and actually enjoyable to track.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm more excited/less nervous with this one than last. I'm not expecting big totals but the potential exists for the lucky folks under meso bands. One could be in an unusual area east of 95. Or cape's hood. Band locations are real time. That makes these storms fun. And fun to watch when it's dumping. I'm guessing 3-6 in my yard. We'll see

That's the general range I'm thinking.  But it will be paste and stick to everything, and should be very photogenic!!  I sort of look at this as a combination of Jan.  26, 2011 ("Commutageddon") and Feb. 25, 2007 (if anyone remembers that one).  Both were paste bombs.  The Feb. 2007 one was originally supposed to be icy, but we ended up with good rates and ~5" snow that stuck everywhere as it fell.  Both were near or slightly above freezing during the snow.

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That's the general range I'm thinking.  But it will be paste and stick to everything, and should be very photogenic!!  I sort of look at this as a combination of Jan.  26, 2011 ("Commutageddon") and Feb. 25, 2007 (if anyone remembers that one).  Both were paste bombs.  The Feb. 2007 one was originally supposed to be icy, but we ended up with good rates and ~5" snow that stuck everywhere as it fell.  Both were near or slightly above freezing during the snow.

I loved that Jan. one. Went to bed to rain and woke up to 6-7”.

of SNOW... miss me with that, RR.

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