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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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Snow maps are going to be useless, especially with the GFS.  I seriously doubt the broad brush of uniform amounts.  Its going to come down to mesoscale banding with uneven amounts throughout.  GFS track is good for the region and it will come down to game time where the bands set up.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just wanted to say I think the Mets who post in our forum are great. Really appreciate you guys being here.

Oh yeah, one more thing. I think it keeps coming north (or stronger if you prefer). Lol

The word is trend. And, I’d also be surprised if it didn’t continue trending north before game time. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

This is definitely true. Look at temps, snow growth, etc. 

But despite all our talk, we rarely get snow ratios outside a 8-12:1 range. With the look of the soundings we’ve seen on the NAM and even GFS, I don’t see this storm being different. So unless a storm probably has substantial sleet (not the case Sunday) then the 10:1 snow maps are probably decent. 

Definitely true for the majority of the area.  One of my "secrets" up here actually is ratios.  With my elevation (about 1,050 ft) I typically do get higher ratios.  15-1 is pretty common and I have even gone 20-1 in some storms (feb 10 2010).  Yea the orographics help get a little more precip but its actually more so the ratios that account for my "jack zone" more often then not.  

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Definitely true for the majority of the area.  One of my "secrets" up here actually is ratios.  With my elevation (about 1,050 ft) I typically do get higher ratios.  15-1 is pretty common and I have even gone 20-1 in some storms (feb 10 2010).  Yea the orographics help get a little more precip but its actually more so the ratios that account for my "jack zone" more often then not.  

I can believe that.  I had about 2" of snow (plus sleet/rain) from our December storm and then was up in your area the following weekend.  Your neck of the woods was beautiful with at least 6-8" of snow still on the ground! 

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Good disco by LWX:

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The coveted shortwave trough responsible for the rather dramatic
shifts in the forecast for the second half of the weekend moved
onshore of western North America overnight, and is expected to be
amplify over the Tennessee River Valley Saturday night. This will
result in cyclogenesis (development of low pressure) off the
southeast coast. It appears the northwestward trend in the track of
this low pressure closer to the coast is due at least in part to (1)
a slightly stronger ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
deflecting the low pressure closer to the coast, and (2) slightly
more separation and amplification between the incoming shortwave
trough, and low pressure associated with today`s cold front
departing over southeastern Canada; this results in a subtle
yet all-important opportunity for phasing between the northern
and southern branches of the jet stream.

What this means in terms of sensible weather locally is that the
chances for precipitation have increased markedly for Saturday night
into Sunday. The airmass will be marginally cold (see: high
temperatures near 50 the preceding day on Saturday), but should be
cold enough for the bulk of the precipitation to fall as snow
(though a start as light rain or a mix is possible). The late-
night timing of precipitation and dynamic cooling aloft from
lift between the phasing shortwave troughs on the northwest side
of the surface low should keep temperatures cold enough for
(wet) snow during the height of the event, and the dynamics may
result in a few bands of moderately heavy snow at times,
particularly SE of US-29.

The potential for a warning-level snowfall event (5"+ in 12
hours east of the Appalachian Mountains) seems modest despite
the dynamics given the marginal temperatures and the short
duration of the event. Still, any further shifts may result in
an uptick (or downtick) in forecasted snowfall amounts.
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