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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I expect it will be more in line with the rest of guidance at 0z. One way or the other lol.

Idk man I think you would agree with this sentiment but the Euro hasn’t been itself as of late. Maybe I’m wrong or maybe there’s a compromise in between more amped models vs Euro/CMC combo but those developing winds at 250 just scream some awesome moisture transport so I think regardless we have some good advection and some good quality rates even if the storm is progressive in nature.

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10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Idk man I think you would agree with this sentiment but the Euro hasn’t been itself as of late. Maybe I’m wrong or maybe there’s a compromise in between more amped models vs Euro/CMC combo but those developing winds at 250 just scream some awesome moisture transport so I think regardless we have some good advection and some good quality rates even if the storm is progressive in nature.

When it comes to the LR the euro will always be #1 imo. Frankly it sniffs these out much faster than other models. At this range though it is susceptible to ticks in either direction. Seems odd but happens. This really feels like an event where we see an uptick on the euro once inside 48 hours. Idk, just has that setup 

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27 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

When it comes to the LR the euro will always be #1 imo. Frankly it sniffs these out much faster than other models. At this range though it is susceptible to ticks in either direction. Seems odd but happens. This really feels like an event where we see an uptick on the euro once inside 48 hours. Idk, just has that setup 

I will def give you that and agree to it. In all reality last Sunday the Euro showed a very good storm for us come this Sunday, lost it and now is def trending toward the other guidance. 

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6 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

SREF mean went up pretty significantly 

SREF is another one of those “it’s good to have on our side but don’t rely on it” models. Doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t excite me. SREF’s are always snowy it seems. Gimme that 0z NAM’ing all day!! 

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Just now, jayyy said:

SREF is another one of those “it’s good to have on our side but don’t rely on it” models. Doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t excite me. SREF’s are always snowy it seems. Gimme that 0z NAM’ing all day!! 

I’m not gonna lie back in the day you saw the SREF make a move you knew the NAM or ETA for that matter was getting ready to give us a bomb or a dud. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

SREF is another one of those “it’s good to have on our side but don’t rely on it” models. Doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t excite me. SREF’s are always snowy it seems. Gimme that 0z NAM’ing all day!! 

Plots just came out many are above 4 inches now way more then 15z. Some low members in there also tho big spread 1 to 10 as a max lol

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5 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

SREF mean went up pretty significantly 

WAY more amplified this run.  BTW we know the SREF has crazy biases but it is somewhat useful with trends just as a curiosity in between model runs.  It does tend to trend with the other guidance in general.  

@high risk @MillvilleWx do you happen to know if anyone still even looks at the SREF?  And also...the idea of a short range meso scale ensemble is a great idea imo.  The meso models are needed to pick out features the globals cannot but they are very susceptible to being jumpy which is probably unavoidable when you make them sensitive enough to pick up on meso features.  An ensemble to help eliminate that issue is a great idea...but it seemed the SREF just suffered from having members with crazy biases that skewed them.  Why wasnt there, or is there, an effort to develop a more useful short range ensemble system?  Thanks for any info.  

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Just now, Ravens94 said:

Plots just came out many are above 4 inches now way more then 15z. Some low members in there also tho big spread 1 to 10 as a max lol

Sounds about right. Exactly why I dislike the model. Oh? It’s going to snow between 0-10”?! Tell me more SREF:lol:

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

SREF is another one of those “it’s good to have on our side but don’t rely on it” models. Doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t excite me. SREF’s are always snowy it seems. Gimme that 0z NAM’ing all day!! 

SREF have a crazy wet bias (or at least they did back when I paid more attention) within some members so you cant use their output as is...but they do tend to show trends.  They were with the NAM in predicting the shift north early on back in December and started showing the deform shifting towards eastern PA and north NJ before the globals last week.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

WAY more amplified this run.  BTW we know the SREF has crazy biases but it is somewhat useful with trends just as a curiosity in between model runs.  It does tend to trend with the other guidance in general.  

@high risk @MillvilleWx do you happen to know if anyone still even looks at the SREF?  And also...the idea of a short range meso scale ensemble is a great idea imo.  The meso models are needed to pick out features the globals cannot but they are very susceptible to being jumpy which is probably unavoidable when you make them sensitive enough to pick up on meso features.  An ensemble to help eliminate that issue is a great idea...but it seemed the SREF just suffered from having members with crazy biases that skewed them.  Why wasnt there, or is there, an effort to develop a more useful short range ensemble system?  Thanks for any info.  

I personally am not a fan of SREF's outside an envelope of potential max and min and that's about it. A lot of times, it guides the 5th and 95th percentiles, so you have a clue as to what is the most extreme result. Hi-res is so prone to minute shifts in guidance that SREF's can exacerbate and/or waver from run to run, so they really are only prudent inside 48 hrs, at least imo. HREF is the newest ensemble blend of hi-res guidance and it does a better job overall and can pick out trends, but it realllllllly struggles with ULL's and intense baroclinicity. It did pick out the potential for the banding in Binghamton with the mega bomb up there, so it's not all for naught. I think there will be more investment in hi-res ensembles down the pike, but we have a major step in Fv3 integration the next 3-4 years, so it's probably more of a side project. Someone who works directly with NWP will have more info on that. 

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The SREFS aren’t wetter. They may be better snowfall wise but the precip in our area is about the same and down in southeast Va they are drier. Also driernup the coast. Not what I wanted to see. I wanted wetter and more west basically. I’m looking at the 24 hour totals at 3 z Sunday night.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The SREFS aren’t wetter. They may be better snowfall wise but the precip in our area is about the same and down in southeast Va they are drier. Also driernup the coast. Not what I wanted to see. I wanted wetter and more west basically. I’m looking at the 24 hour totals at 3 z Sunday night.

Idk this looks better to me ?

7A6FB611-0789-4EF2-A8CC-EB0EDCEFD84A.png

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

The precip field is definitely reaching further inland and north overall.  15z was more of a distinct cutoff . But it's the Srefs but I think that's a positive takeaway.  And the qpf stayed similar i95 nw

Well I don’t see it but I’m relying on the NCEP maps which is one long look away from inducing a seizure

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