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Feb 7th-9th event


Thundersnow12
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28 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Disappointing this turned into a weak turd. Looked promising for a few runs a couple days ago on the euro. It seems every event that shows promise in SEMI this winter turns to poo. All were asking for is one solid event in a 4 month span nov-feb.

The other night we had some of the heaviest rates anyone in this sub has had this Winter (outside of a lake band I'm sure). 3" fell in 1.5 hour and it was dense snow too. Total accumulation for the 4 hour event was just over 4" so obviously not a big storm, but coming from someone who has criticised many big storms over the years for taking too many hours, you should have appreciated the weather porn aspect of it.

FB_IMG_1612492470348.jpg

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The other night we had some of the heaviest rates anyone in this sub has had this Winter (outside of a lake band I'm sure). 3" fell in 1.5 hour and it was dense snow too. Total accumulation for the 4 hour event was just over 4" so obviously not a big storm, but coming from someone who has criticised many big storms over the years for taking too many hours, you should have appreciated the weather porn aspect of it.

FB_IMG_1612492470348.jpg

Yea it would've been cool to be home for that. Still down in Florida until march. I have a bunch of delta miles to use and planned to use them this winter if a 8+ storm looked likely. I assumed back in November I would fly home atleast once this winter but there's been no opportunities. 

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14 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea it would've been cool to be home for that. Still down in Florida until march. I have a bunch of delta miles to use and planned to use them this winter if a 8+ storm looked likely. I assumed back in November I would fly home atleast once this winter but there's been no opportunities. 

you can fly home if you want tundra lol. The snowpack is frozen dense so everything on top will build it up. Definitely looks like deep winter. Next potential good one is next Friday. 

 

Only 2 of the past 20 winters have not seen a 6 plus inch storm and there were 36 such storms in that time frame.  I think we will get one however I also have a funny feeling it will come in March. Obviously we remember the February 2015 bitter cold as having very deep snow, but some of the other infamous February cold snaps of years past have had very little snow cover and then we get a big March storm. In fact 2 of the more infamous cold snaps were Feb 1899 & 1934. During each of those cold snaps we only had around an inch of snow on the ground, then March brought a big snowstorm (12+ in 1899, 10 in 1934).  It could be worse... Bismarck will be spending most of the next 2 weeks with wind chills between 30 and 50 below 0, dew points in the -20 's and no snow on the ground.

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KLOT thoughts for Monday

Snow is likely to be ongoing across, at least southern portions
of the area at the start of the period Sunday evening. This snow
will likely overspread the rest of the area for Monday into Monday
evening. Given the strength of the baroclinic zone across the
area, we are likely to see some enhanced isentropic upglide and
bands of lower level frontogenesis develop with each approaching
mid-level impulse, and this should in turn support at least some
locally heavier periods of snow, especially on Monday and Monday
evening. A deep dendritic growth zone in this arctic airmass is
also likely to support high snow ratios (possible in excess of 20
to 1 at times), and this should in turn support some notable snow
accumulations through Monday evening. With this in mind, we will
have to keep an eye on the snow amounts for this period, with
advisory level snow amounts (2"-5") certainly looking probable.
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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Looks the same as it has the past few days...A few to a couple of inches for a wide area.

yep. the hope is you can spring a big dog while the ingredients are there, Fretting over every 24-36 model depiction of these various impulses in this flow is useless. Embrace the ride. 

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14 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Our promising week is quickly becoming cold and dry. 

Yes. As a met I'm sure you know the possibility of a shut out with the arctic overtaking the pattern with suppression exists. But I'll take my chances with that given the ingredients exist for some decent events compared to the pattern from 12/1-1/16.  Can't win em all.

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8 minutes ago, Baum said:

Yes. As a met I'm sure you know the possibility of a shut out with the arctic overtaking the pattern with suppression exists. But I'll take my chances with that given the ingredients exist for some decent events compared to the pattern from 12/1-1/16.  Can't win em all.

At least we have snow on the ground, but, yes, suppression always a concern, especially with cold of this magnitude. 

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The magnitude and longevity of this arctic outbreak is a feat in itself. Can't recall the last time I saw a pattern like this. Like Baum said, predicting low amplitude impulses in this flow is fickle. Hoping we can either get several small events or one decent one next week. It's a battle between cold surging south and moisture surging north. Unfortunately the cold will eventually win out and suppress the storm track. Hopefully we can squeak out a few nice storms before then. 

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6 minutes ago, Owensnow said:

Bring on April please

 

this pattern is a write off here in SEMI and SW Ontario 

 

plenty of cold but no storms possible this far north (suppression)

That's not necessarily true. Anything is possible.  We will see several bouts of snow this week to add to our snowpack. Nothing significant at this time however the models are in pure chaos mode struggling with multiple waves. Just embrace deep Winter in the Great Lakes for now.

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Been SN to -SN here for the last 2 or 3 hours.  Pixie to quarters and back again but steady.  About an inch so far.  There seems to be a touch more moisture than forecast (doesn't take much with these temps) and the subtle forcing seems to be hanging around longer than forecast.  Returns to the west looking decent so maybe add another inch or 2 by morning if we're really lucky.  Keep the Swoop McClain ripples coming :weenie:

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