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Feb 7th-9th event


Thundersnow12
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14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Since I think it's meant to be for this thread, the 12z GEM has a really nice event starting Sunday evening and continuing through Monday. Probably would've been better to group together the 7th through 9th because there's a way you can get a longer duration round out of this setup, such as shown by the GEM. The ECMWF runs I cited in medium long range thread had some wave spacing between Sunday and Monday, though it's too soon to tell if we could get one longer event or two shorter events or specifically most favored areas.

All we can say is that multiple short-waves that won't be sampled for a couple days lends to lower predictability than last weekend's event. Don't think the threat has really trended downward, gotta take a wait and see approach. The pieces are there for a nice event because of the tight baroclinic zone expected to be in place.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I'll merge the 6-7 thread with this one if it looks like there will be less spacing in between.  Still kind of unclear.

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2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

I think if the late weekend storm can slide off the East Coast and not intensify too much like the ggem portrays, this leaves the baroclinic zone further north, and allow some ridging for some amplification of this wave of energy. 

No more north trends please. Lol. Time for I80 south to cash in. Would be awesome to build a snowpack to really enhance this arctic outbreak. Bring on the ice age :snowing:

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22 hours ago, WeatherMonger said:

I can't remember the last arctic punch here that did not have a somewhat sufficient snow pack. Cold or bust....

 

image.png.3b5b6fc0fc8e3d234d865226c3e62d54.png

One would think so but 2020-2021 winter be like rain you shall get. But this upcoming pattern has the most promise I seen all winter. Hopefully us central IL peeps can luck out

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step back in overnight runs as alluded to by LOT this AM:

WE REMAIN LOCKED IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MULTIPLE SUBTLE   
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT   
TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ON MONDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY  
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY INTO   
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WE  
ULTIMATELY END UP WITH, HOWEVER. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN  
A BIT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES CURRENTLY FORECAS
T, BUT   
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT'S CONCERNS OF POTENTIALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL   
AMOUNTS REMAIN VALID, ESPECIALLY WITH THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAX   
ALIGNED WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A   
QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS, WITH   
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS   
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY STICK TO SURFACES   
CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

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1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Disappointing this turned into a weak turd. Looked promising for a few runs a couple days ago on the euro. It seems every event that shows promise in SEMI this winter turns to poo. All were asking for is one solid event in a 4 month span nov-feb.

Hanging your hopes on one operational model run will usually end in disappointment. 

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