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Feb 7th-9th event


Thundersnow12
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25 minutes ago, Stebo said:

There is very obviously a SE ridge there too. It can only trend so far south.

Yea think this one will probably be a higher confidence scenario track wise. With the block over the pole, there's a limit to how far northward this can reasonably track, and the flexing SE ridge should limit the ability for this to end up super suppressed. In fact, the more the ridge presses and tightens the baroclinic zone, the greater the likelihood of a more organized system imo. That polar airmass will be entrenched at the surface and tough to move, which may lend itself to an ice scenario for someone, especially if we get a more well defined system with a moderate/strong WAA regime out in front.

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29 minutes ago, Stebo said:

There is very obviously a SE ridge there too. It can only trend so far south.

It's nice to have Stebo in our neck of the woods offering his insight and wisdom.  He's kind of like a big brother for us Michigan/Indiana/Ohio folk.  Thanks, Stebo

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2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Cue that happening because so far this winter everything has missed me north so only logical that next it would miss me south. Lol. Hoping I can squeeze a few nice fluffy snows out of this sustained cold pattern. Would be a waste to not put this quality cold air to work ;)

I can't remember the last arctic punch here that did not have a somewhat sufficient snow pack. Cold or bust....

 

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14 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

It's nice to have Stebo in our neck of the woods offering his insight and wisdom.  He's kind of like a big brother for us Michigan/Indiana/Ohio folk.  Thanks, Stebo

:wub:

20 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Yea think this one will probably be a higher confidence scenario track wise. With the block over the pole, there's a limit to how far northward this can reasonably track, and the flexing SE ridge should limit the ability for this to end up super suppressed. In fact, the more the ridge presses and tightens the baroclinic zone, the greater the likelihood of a more organized system imo. That polar airmass will be entrenched at the surface and tough to move, which may lend itself to an ice scenario for someone, especially if we get a more well defined system with a moderate/strong WAA regime out in front.

Yeah there will be a squeeze play here which will force a strong gradient pattern at the very least.

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1 hour ago, hlcater said:

Yea think this one will probably be a higher confidence scenario track wise. With the block over the pole, there's a limit to how far northward this can reasonably track, and the flexing SE ridge should limit the ability for this to end up super suppressed. In fact, the more the ridge presses and tightens the baroclinic zone, the greater the likelihood of a more organized system imo. That polar airmass will be entrenched at the surface and tough to move, which may lend itself to an ice scenario for someone, especially if we get a more well defined system with a moderate/strong WAA regime out in front.

I can see that. 

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Expect a good amount of run to run variability on the op runs. 00z GFS is still decent but not nearly to the extent of its previous runs, while GEM is more suppressed and sheared. Meanwhile the 00z UKMET is juiced for the system with QPF up to 0.4 to 0.7 across the LOT CWA.

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Expect a good amount of run to run variability on the op runs. 00z GFS is still decent but not nearly to the extent of its previous runs, while GEM is more suppressed and sheared. Meanwhile the 00z UKMET is juiced for the system with QPF up to 0.4 to 0.7 across the LOT CWA.

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With temps in the teens at best.

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Since I think it's meant to be for this thread, the 12z GEM has a really nice event starting Sunday evening and continuing through Monday. Probably would've been better to group together the 7th through 9th because there's a way you can get a longer duration round out of this setup, such as shown by the GEM. The ECMWF runs I cited in medium long range thread had some wave spacing between Sunday and Monday, though it's too soon to tell if we could get one longer event or two shorter events or specifically most favored areas.

All we can say is that multiple short-waves that won't be sampled for a couple days lends to lower predictability than last weekend's event. Don't think the threat has really trended downward, gotta take a wait and see approach. The pieces are there for a nice event because of the tight baroclinic zone expected to be in place.

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