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Feb 5-20, 2021 arctic cold


beavis1729
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9 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Oof. Tomorrow looks like our last high temperature above 10 for the foreseeable future. Lake Superior will be manufacturing ice this month. 

Looks like you are forecast to finally get above 10 next Sunday !

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the midnight high today will be 15.  But after today the highest point forecast is 8 degrees for the next week.  Here's the top ten longest streaks for temps below 15 and below 8 in Madison history.  Think it's definitely attainable to get on at least one of these lists by the end of this stretch

max of 15.png

max of 8.png

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25 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I just dont see how it can even be that cold with what will be a Late October sun angle next week. Seems to go against science but what do i know ?

All things being equal, you're right that it's more difficult to get severe cold in mid-Feb...but in Chicago, record lows are still fairly cold (generally -10s) this time of year.  The airmass has been building up north for awhile, and sun angle up there is still weak with relatively short daylight.  Plus, there's extensive snow cover in the source region all the way down to here, which acts like a refrigerant.

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4 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

All things being equal, you're right that it's more difficult to get severe cold in mid-Feb...but in Chicago, record lows are still fairly cold (generally -10s) this time of year.  The airmass has been building up north for awhile, and sun angle up there is still weak with relatively short daylight.  Plus, there's extensive snow cover in the source region all the way down to here, which acts like a refrigerant.

I mean avg highs in Indy next week will be close to 40, and one day is forecast to have a high of 2 degrees. So essentially that's about the equivalent of having a high temp around 75 right ? I just cant imagine a high of 75 in Mid Feb in Indy. 5 straight days of 15 or below, so thats like a 5 day heatwave of 65-75 in Mid Feb.

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43 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I mean avg highs in Indy next week will be close to 40, and one day is forecast to have a high of 2 degrees. So essentially that's about the equivalent of having a high temp around 75 right ? I just cant imagine a high of 75 in Mid Feb in Indy. 5 straight days of 15 or below, so thats like a 5 day heatwave of 65-75 in Mid Feb.

fwiw, Indianapolis has had 3 occurrences of 75+ in February and 6 occurrences of a high of 2 degrees or colder in February.  So they are both really rare and wouldn't be wise to bet on well in advance.

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6 hours ago, Snownado said:

I just find that incredible honestly. Isnt January colder on average than February ?

I think it was you and I a little while back talking about March temperatures. Up here in the eastern Great Lakes our coldest is normally delayed because of the lakes. A cold airmass in December has to travel across Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Lake Huron so it normally loses a bit of punch. By late January the Lakes are normally 32F or have significant ice cover thus allowing the air to stay "colder" 

Thats also why Niagara, Downtown Toronto, Downtown Buffalo  have about the same growing season as Central Indiana even though we are much further north. In October the lakes are warm enough that Central Indiana gets a frost and its 32F but in Buffalo/Toronto its 35-40F and the growing season continues. Same in May as the lakes have normally warmed enough to protect the lakeshore from late season frosts. 

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