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Feb 5-20, 2021 arctic cold


beavis1729
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Time for a separate thread...I'll start with madwx's comments from the long range thread, and a Day 7 Euro prog.  The cold arrives sooner on the GFS, and is more intense.

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Euro in agreement with cold starting Friday after the EOW system with the core of the coldest temps on Sunday thru Tuesday with some slight moderation after that.

Some relevant record mins and low maxes for the period at MSN

5 -21 1936 -8 1895

6 -19 1977 -5 1875

7 -21 1875 -2 1893

8 -22 1899 -7 1875

9 -28 1899 -15 1899

10 -25 1899 -5 1899

11 -22 1885 -6 1899

Notable that all those 1899 dates are during the great Arctic outbreak where ice floes came out of the mouth of the Mississippi and New Orleans got down to their all time record of 6. 

sfct.conus.png

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Still could change but this airmass looks pretty potent.  I know some here aren't fans of extreme cold, but from my point of view, I wish we could've brought this in during January for maximum effect.  Not that it can't get extremely cold in February (especially early in the month) but generally speaking the coldest records are in January.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Still could change but this airmass looks pretty potent.  I know some here aren't fans of extreme cold, but from my point of view, I wish we could've brought this in during January for maximum effect.  Not that it can't get extremely cold in February (especially early in the month) but generally speaking the coldest records are in January, especially outside of the northern tier.

On the other hand, in February it is a bit easier to break records because it doens't usually have these mega cold outbreaks

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Here's that part of the IND afd

Several of the CIPS analogs for late weekend align with some
notable dates. Of particular interest are favored analogs for
1/20/1985 and 1/18/1994...two dates/events responsible for some
of the coldest temperatures in recorded history in our area. Those
events though also had the aid of a deep snowpack and a cold
airmass that had recycled repeatedly in the 7-10 days prior to
those dates. Want to stress that we are not anticipating record
cold as suggested above. But those dates being highlighted drive
home the idea and increase the confidence that this is an
anomalous level of cold that will be impacting the region by
Sunday and Monday.
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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Still could change but this airmass looks pretty potent.  I know some here aren't fans of extreme cold, but from my point of view, I wish we could've brought this in during January for maximum effect.  Not that it can't get extremely cold in February (especially early in the month) but generally speaking the coldest records are in January.

Something something sun angle yadda yadda.

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KLOT

The main story though looks to be the arrival of a true arctic
airmass over the weekend. Timing differences in the global
guidance remain, but the signal in the deterministic and ensemble
output for a period of significant cold is impressive at this
range. The heart of the arctic airmass may not arrive until later
on Sunday into monday, but lingering breezes and high temperatures
that may not rise much above 0 result in wind chill values during
the overnight periods that may fall below -20 F.
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1 minute ago, Snownado said:

Why is it always guys who wear shorts in the cold ? Have you noticed that guys seem to do this more than women ?

Because guys are dumb.

Although have seen women wearing skirts/dresses outside while it's in the single digits, but it's less common and they're usually (a) not outside for very long and (b) heavily bundled up top.

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1 minute ago, Snownado said:

Indy probably wont even have a snowpack by the time next weekend rolls around. Going to be hard to get below 0 with a bare ground !

I think as progged, this airmass would be able to get below zero at IND even without snowcover.  It is hard to get way below zero without snowcover though (say colder than -10F), especially around 40N.  We'll see though... maybe IND will have a snow pack.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

I think as progged, this airmass would be able to get below zero at IND even without snowcover.  It is hard to get way below zero without snowcover though (say colder than -10F), especially around 40N.  We'll see though... maybe IND will have a snow pack.

I think it was early January 2019, we had an Arctic outbreak where it was in the single digits either side of zero with bare ground. Puke.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I think as progged, this airmass would be able to get below zero at IND even without snowcover.  It is hard to get way below zero without snowcover though (say colder than -10F), especially around 40N.  We'll see though... maybe IND will have a snow pack.

God I hope there's a snowpack, because it would suck to have days of freezing cold with a bare ground.

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Brief but potent. Should be the coldest of the season for me. -17F was from the last blast (colder -20's west of me). -20's with this one, again, and more widespread.

Many days of -10 to -25 lows with 5 to -5 highs is pretty rough from past winters. This will be a short one. Like them like that.

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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think as progged, this airmass would be able to get below zero at IND even without snowcover.  It is hard to get way below zero without snowcover though (say colder than -10F), especially around 40N.  We'll see though... maybe IND will have a snow pack.

Usually if its going to get this cold it finds a way to snow here in Indy 

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8 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

18z GFS doubles down.  Not expecting it to verify this cold, but crazy to see this on a day 6-7 map.

sfct.conus.png

The Sunday 2/7 daytime temperature map brings back memories of 1/30/2019.  I remember the GFS having lows in the -30s in Chicago, even at short lead times.  Obviously ended up being overdone, though did have -30 readings in northwest/north central IL.

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19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The Sunday 2/7 daytime temperature map brings back memories of 1/30/2019.  I remember the GFS having lows in the -30s in Chicago, even at short lead times.  Obviously ended up being overdone, though did have -30 readings in northwest/north central IL.

Yep.  The source region for this airmass is modeled to be brutally cold on the GFS - see this wind chill map for hour 114.   At the very top of this image in far NW Manitoba (around 59N), the color is off the scale...but the point WCs are as low as -89F.  It just keeps getting colder up there on each subsequent GFS run.  Yesterday, the modeled WCs in that area were -75F to -80F.  I haven't seen this type of cold in Canada in a very long time...

sfctapp.conus.png

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