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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Never like seeing the cold and snow down into Texas like that. Usually does not work out well for us..

Yea, I've been considering that aspect. Typically an amplification as major as one taking extreme winter weather pretty much to old Mexico and the Gulf Coast generally wouldn't bode well for us in the eastern US but we still have the sprawling high pressure and the cold air to the north and the low attacking it from the Gulf. Majority of guidance and ensembles keep this surface low below us, initially on the west side of the Apps in the SE but eventually going to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Not a wound up deep low either. So this is definitely looking like a pretty high impact winter storm for C-PA, but details on P-type are anyone's guess really at this point. I still personally prefer more frozen (snow/sleet) solutions, like the GFS. Should note there is a huge difference in surface temps GFS vs Euro (8-10ºF) during the height of this. Even with that, I don't really buy the Euro's expansive ZR, especially outside of the southern tier where the column would suggest sleet more than ZR.  

Why do I prefer the colder solutions? Despite the core of the arctic air not pushing into our region, it slides east across Ontario and Quebec with that sprawling high pressure. So I think surface/low level cold is going to bleed down into PA pretty efficiently, especially with the majority of guidance keeping the surface low underneath us. It seems that 700-850mb zone is most likely region this busts above 0ºC and that's high enough in the column that i'd be considering sleet as predominant mix over ZR, although there's going to be a stripe of more significant ZR to deal with somewhere as well.. and our southern tier near the Mason-Dixon is a place to watch for that possibility . 

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5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

To me, and as a number of you have mentioned, by far the biggest story of the pattern is the inability of the truly arctic air centered over the central part of the country to bleed its way east.  I mean, considering what all the models were advertising for most of the past week it's pretty stunning to see where things are heading.  Disappointing really, as I was looking forward to some icebox temps, to say nothing of the fact that snow is likely off the table for most of the LSV now as well.  Not giving up yet but trends are less than ideal.

I'll gladly take the milder temps and active storm track we have right now over having the extreme cold. Especially since we are still cold enough to mostly maintain the pack that's on the ground. We've had conflicting signals via the teleconnections for a lot of this exceptional NAO/AO blocking period with a mostly -PNA and a solid MJO magnitude that's been floating in the Phase 6-7 region. (currently 7) 

Want to know what they usually translate to, especially in 6? Not going to get into a whole thing and stat lesson on the significance % maps but regions in that blue or purple shows high correlation to the temperature pattern. That's why phases 4-6 are frowned upon greatly in the eastern US, esp during a Nina. Phase 7 is a warm phase in the east too, but not as strongly. But the gradient pattern we're in and the arctic air not completely dropping in to the east makes alot of sense when this is considered. I think it's a blessing in disguise personally. You don't have such strong NAO/AO blocking then you guys are talking about still having the AC on. You don't have the conflicting MJO signal and it's conceivable its frigid in PA and we're lamenting DC and VA getting all the snow. And I guarantee you guys wouldn't be so disappointed we're missing out on it being -10 if that happened. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'll gladly take the milder temps and active storm track we have right now over having the extreme cold. Especially since we are still cold enough to mostly maintain the pack that's on the ground. We've had conflicting signals via the teleconnections for a lot of this exceptional NAO/AO blocking period with a mostly -PNA and a solid MJO magnitude that's been floating in the Phase 6-7 region. (currently 7) 

Want to know what they usually translate to, especially in 6? Not going to get into a whole thing and stat lesson on the significance % maps but regions in that blue or purple shows high correlation to the temperature pattern. That's why phases 4-6 are frowned upon greatly in the eastern US, esp during a Nina. Phase 7 is a warm phase in the east too, but not as strongly. But the gradient pattern we're in and the arctic air not completely dropping in to the east makes alot of sense when this is considered. I think it's a blessing in disguise personally. You don't have such strong NAO/AO blocking then you guys are talking about still having the AC on. You don't have the conflicting MJO signal and it's conceivable its frigid in PA and we're lamenting DC and VA getting all the snow. And I guarantee you guys wouldn't be so disappointed we're missing out on it being -10 if that happened. 

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ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif.98803cf31e4cb0adeddbfcd028d0fb75.gif

I’ll take sleet ice or rain all day before -10 and dry.

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I'm bummed.  It looks like sometime this afternoon Pivotal Weather took away the ability to hover over a graphical spot on a map and have its value displayed.  That's true for all the maps as far as I can tell.  Obviously I can still get approximations since the MDT value is always plotted.  But I'm so used to getting the exact temperature or qpf or snowfall.  It was there this morning but when I got back late this afternoon it was gone.  Does this mean that I have to subscribe in order to get that feature restored?  They offer a month-to-month subscription for $6.99 / month.  I certainly wouldn't mind paying for Feb and March.  They add some nice features in like zoomed in state level graphics and other stuff.  Are any others experiencing this same issue (with Pivotal Maps)?

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20 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I'm bummed.  It looks like sometime this afternoon Pivotal Weather took away the ability to hover over a graphical spot on a map and have its value displayed.  That's true for all the maps as far as I can tell.  Obviously I can still get approximations since the MDT value is always plotted.  But I'm so used to getting the exact temperature or qpf or snowfall.  It was there this morning but when I got back late this afternoon it was gone.  Does this mean that I have to subscribe in order to get that feature restored?  They offer a month-to-month subscription for $6.99 / month.  I certainly wouldn't mind paying for Feb and March.  They add some nice features in like zoomed in state level graphics and other stuff.  Are any others experiencing this same issue (with Pivotal Maps)?

Yes I was having the same issue earlier but now it appears to be working again, at least for the short range models.  Just checked and the hover feature is working fine for the Euro too but not the GFS.  Maybe just a temporary glitch, who knows......

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes I was having the same issue earlier but now it appears to be working again, at least for the short range models.  Just checked and the hover feature is working fine for the Euro too but not the GFS.  Maybe just a temporary glitch, who knows......

Thanks much for replying. I'll be watching for it to come back.

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Quick look at guidance for tomorrow it appears not much qpf will be making it up here along the m/d line . Also looking at a few soundings its sleet in majority of the "storm " . Maybe a couple snow showers early tomorrow transitioning to spotty sleet and overnight Saturday maybe some freezing drizzle.  That's my interpretation.   key word . ...is LIGHT.  I'm still rooting for a lil snow thump before a flip for early week but that door is closing fairly quickly imby   Places like State College,  up towards Williamsport definitely in the game still . 

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27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Quick look at guidance for tomorrow it appears not much qpf will be making it up here along the m/d line . Also looking at a few soundings its sleet in majority of the "storm " . Maybe a couple snow showers early tomorrow transitioning to spotty sleet and overnight Saturday maybe some freezing drizzle.  That's my interpretation.   key word . ...is LIGHT.  I'm still rooting for a lil snow thump before a flip for early week but that door is closing fairly quickly imby   Places like State College,  up towards Williamsport definitely in the game still . 

Tomorrow night into Sunday am has always been a light event, but we might get a light dusting of snow or sleet or a minor glaze of ice, which could still cause trouble on the untreated roads.

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On 2/11/2021 at 12:38 AM, MAG5035 said:

Lol @MillvilleWx might win "coldest snowstorm of the winter" down there in Midland, TX with the storm that becomes our Tuesday event. Yes those temps are in ºF

Just now seeing this. Had a rough past 24 hrs for something personal. I won't get into it, but I am physically healthy and no one is ill. I'll leave it at that. As for the snow, it's going to be something fairly surreal for me, especially considering my geographic location. I don't think people down here, including some of our own forecasters understand how rough some models are with handling the type of arctic boundary, coupled with a strong s/w trough. They are gonna miss convective snow elements and be all over the place with intensity and location. The impacts will be very high for down here. It's already enhanced with the ice around with more to come tonight and tomorrow. It's pretty insane, I'll tell you that.

10 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Quiet in here.   What happened to all the storms?

It’s crazy how cold it is in the middle of the country down to Texas.   @MillvilleWxMidland below zero lows, Dallas low of 0 and temps 30-50 below average are just insane.   Could the pattern reload and a similar event happen for the east coast in March?  March has produced in recent years.   

We are now forecasting a low of 1 on Monday morning. I'm calling -3 with the snow cover, at the highest. I've seen this song and dance before back home. It'll be a top 5 coldest day ever in Midland on Monday. I'll try to take some pictures. 

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The 18z GFS gives my parents in NE Texas basically 2 feet of snow through next Thursday. They average less than .5” a year and iirc the record snowfall is 5”. They also might hit 0 Monday morning. I never remember it getting under 15. 

It’s going to be an epic disaster with infrastructure failures. Be safe @MillvilleWx. And best wishes to you going through personal things. 

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6 minutes ago, canderson said:

The 18z GFS gives my parents in NE Texas basically 2 feet of snow through next Thursday. They average less than .5” a year and iirc the record snowfall is 5”. They also might hit 0 Monday morning. I never remember it getting under 15. 

It’s going to be an epic disaster with infrastructure failures. Be safe @MillvilleWx. And best wishes to you going through personal things. 

Thanks Canderson for the kind words. I'm just mentally trying to get back into things. Today was a day to come back from what happened yesterday. I'm going to enjoy history made here. Thankfully I have that going for me. 

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4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea, I've been considering that aspect. Typically an amplification as major as one taking extreme winter weather pretty much to old Mexico and the Gulf Coast generally wouldn't bode well for us in the eastern US but we still have the sprawling high pressure and the cold air to the north and the low attacking it from the Gulf. Majority of guidance and ensembles keep this surface low below us, initially on the west side of the Apps in the SE but eventually going to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Not a wound up deep low either. So this is definitely looking like a pretty high impact winter storm for C-PA, but details on P-type are anyone's guess really at this point. I still personally prefer more frozen (snow/sleet) solutions, like the GFS. Should note there is a huge difference in surface temps GFS vs Euro (8-10ºF) during the height of this. Even with that, I don't really buy the Euro's expansive ZR, especially outside of the southern tier where the column would suggest sleet more than ZR.  

Why do I prefer the colder solutions? Despite the core of the arctic air not pushing into our region, it slides east across Ontario and Quebec with that sprawling high pressure. So I think surface/low level cold is going to bleed down into PA pretty efficiently, especially with the majority of guidance keeping the surface low underneath us. It seems that 700-850mb zone is most likely region this busts above 0ºC and that's high enough in the column that i'd be considering sleet as predominant mix over ZR, although there's going to be a stripe of more significant ZR to deal with somewhere as well.. and our southern tier near the Mason-Dixon is a place to watch for that possibility . 

The 18z GFS agreed with your preference for a colder solution. It keeps the low below us and tracks it towards the DelMarVa and then off of the coast. There is High pressure to our north and Arctic air waiting to press in from the west.

If the low takes this track, and the cold air presses even slightly further south, all of CTP could be looking good for more snow. As it stands now verbatim on this run, the 6 inch snow line gets down to Altoona & Selinsgrove. The 3 inch line gets down to Harrisburg this run. A lot of sleet shows up in the I -81 to I-78 corridor, while the bulk of the freezing rain hits the southern tier.

Still a few days to go, but Plenty of time for this to trend for the better or worse, but I like where things are heading at this time.

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