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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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What a great 12z GFS run for CTP for this week!

First, on Tuesday, there is a chance for 1 or 2 inches of snow, mostly north of the turnpike with a weak system.

Then the real fun begins Wednesday night with the start of the overrunning snow. The snow then continues at varying intensity until early Friday. This run keeps most of PA all snow for this event.

The snow map is just for this event.

 

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Tuesday's potential light event seems like it may target central and/or northern PA more than the southern tier by the looks of most of this afternoon's guidance. That's looking like a 1-3" stripe of snow wherever it decides to throw down. 

Good to see the Euro backing down on bringing the ice into PA with that Thurs/Fri event for now. Seems like it could be a couple different surges of precip with that and a bit of an extended WAA precip phase before the eventual low comes up toward PA. Doesn't look like something that would deliver excessive snows but could be a real nice snowpack builder (moderate with a stripe of heavier totals). I"m not going to rule out potential mixing issues in parts of the region with this eventual system but the setup should favor mainly frozen. Lot's of cold available and an established snowpack lends some support to the PA favorable storm track. And we're not winding up a big storm with this so any WAA surge aloft would likely be limited. 

 

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now our artic airmass will only be here 2 days? highs in the low 20s for sundays snow but then shoot back up to the upper 30s to near 40 right after the storm?  im getting tired of them since last year saying the artic air is coming and it never comes. I just want a week or so of a good cold push i dont want rain or ice out of no where cause its to warm.

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55 minutes ago, Ruin said:

now our artic airmass will only be here 2 days? highs in the low 20s for sundays snow but then shoot back up to the upper 30s to near 40 right after the storm?  im getting tired of them since last year saying the artic air is coming and it never comes. I just want a week or so of a good cold push i dont want rain or ice out of no where cause its to warm.

Oh my...bitter cold is fun for a little, but boring unless you live near the Great Lakes. Give me an active pattern with cold nearby any day. 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MAG5035 any chance we risk suppression on Thursday? The boundary seems to be shifting south each day, and we're still 4 days out.

The 12z EPS gives the LSV some room to maneuver north or south for the Wednesday night to Friday am event. 
This snow map is just for this work week window through Friday evening.

 

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So many days and nights are supposed to have snow in the 7 day forecast for Williamsport. But it seems that each day or night will only have a little bit. Sort of a unusual forecast for us.

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The 0z GFS targets the southern half of PA this week!
The minor initial wave on Tuesday now brought a couple of inches of snow to the LSV this run.

Then the stronger overrunning wave Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon brought the best snow bullseye into the southern half of PA.

 

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The weaker early week wave on Tuesday has been steadily trending south the last few model run cycles. Southern PA now might have a chance at a couple of inches of snow on Tuesday. CTP has also been bumping up the percentage chance of snow in their forecast zones as well for Tuesday.

Then, the more significant wave arrives Wednesday night and lasts through Thursday.

This pattern is loaded with potential!

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5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MAG5035 any chance we risk suppression on Thursday? The boundary seems to be shifting south each day, and we're still 4 days out.

I'm not too concerned about suppression currently. It's become apparent that the storm track this upcoming week is going to keep us near or in the crosshairs of several waves rather than a complete overwhelming of arctic air via dumping the PV into the east. We have an eastern ridge trying to pop up against this blocking pattern and hyper negative NAO/AO...elongating the PV and providing this gradient pattern with alot of cold air availability. Could be the MJO trying to influence some as it has and will continue to be mired in Phase 6 and now 7. Usually those phases strongly correlate to eastern ridging JFM (especially 6 but 7 reflects it too). Other than the PNA starting fairly negative, MJO is really the only teleconnection flying in the face of the majority of them being pretty supportive this week (-EPO/-WPO). We have such an established blocking pattern up top that instead of what could have been a period of warm weather, we instead have a battleground for delivering potentially more decent snow events. The exchange in all that appears to be not having straight up frigid weather. So god forbid it might not be -15 to -20ºF lol, but we're going to have multiple chances for wintry weather. Just have to nail down the swaths, and it's probably going to vary favoring different parts of the region and perhaps introducing p-type issues in some instances.   

I would be surprised if that PV doesn't directly get swung through at some point within the next couple weeks though. I feel like when this overall pattern does start to break down/change/etc (and it will eventually) that all this cold that has gotten to our side of the pole is going to get moved around. And typically, such a thing likes to happen on the heels of a major amplification and storm system. 

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10 hours ago, daxx said:

Oh my...bitter cold is fun for a little, but boring unless you live near the Great Lakes. Give me an active pattern with cold nearby any day. 

actually I love about of week of really cold why you may ask? It kills all the nasty bugs and we have less of them in the summer and overall I miss cold days as a grown up get under a blanket toasty with hot coco or some thicc soup like broc and cheddar or beef stew 

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