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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


MAG5035
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54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

7-11" in the LSV on the 18Z GFS.  LOL.    Much of the MA as well (not the 2-5" mentioned down there). 

Here is that 18z GFS! Nice....!

I am going post these while I can. We are in the 4th quarter of the season and the clock is ticking.

Win or lose, I plan on enjoying these last few weeks of tracking!

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91ED6030-D8D6-4878-A085-E6BD9ACD6817.png

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11 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

 This is from DT: for NC VA WVA MD DEL PA OH KY IND NJ the Risk of any sort of **SIGNIFICANT Winter Weather*** is done. Yes I know some in VA NC MD did not see real winter / snow.

Now the key phrase is **SIGNIFICANT Winter Weather**. Yes of course between now and say APRIL 1 it will get cold from time to time. Like Duh.....

When I say "SIGNIFICANT Winter Weather" that term refers to SNOW and or ICE chances. If the mountains of WVA or western PA see a snow shower... that really does not count. Also notice here I left out the Great Lakes and New England regions from this. I see no real threat for those areas through March 20 but it is too soon to call it for those areas 

Lol. 

Proclaiming such things north of DC and north of the Ohio River west of the Apps in that group of states is a hot take at best at this point with more than three weeks left in March. And I'm not even super excited about the prospects at the moment beyond acknowledging the warm-up this week is probably an early spring tease (aka "Spring of Deception" in that often shared 12 seasons of *insert state or region here* meme).

I'm personally not really eyeing up individual storm threats that pop up in the long range GFS/Euro quite yet, as I believe we're going to need to get through the warm-up this week to see where the pattern is actually going to evolve... and I think this potential window probably shows up somewhere in the last two weeks of the month if it materializes. Nearest potential bigger thing showing up just before St Patty's Day on the models I feel is actually too early for the potential overall pattern change as NAO/AO still looks quite positive at that stage with lots of low heights over Greenland. 18z GFS evolution of the parent low going west isn't quite ideal this late with core of preceding cold NE of PA and a retreating high. So I think 12z Euro or maybe the 18z ||GFS depending on if there's a retreating high to the NE is probably a better take on something that's still in D7-9 to begin with. There were a couple individual ensemble members on both Euro and GEFS that were cranking out some wild stuff accum wise for that too, likely driving the mean a bit. I mean we could score something there, but I think the general period of interest is after that. 

We definitely look chilly late month but we need more than just a bit below average in the second half of March outside of a one-off thread the needle hail mary. I want to see a more dominant teleconnection signal show up...whether its an -EPO (and/or +PNA), a redevelopment of a stronger -NAO (preferred) or some combination thereof to sign off on a Late March/early April 2018 kind of late season run. Today's 12z Euro control run for instance really built a -NAO with big ridging over Greenland and presented the kind of pattern and strong eastern trough you need to see for a run of late March winter weather. Ensembles look somewhat mixed, showing eastern troughing but not really showing much -NAO (esp GEFS) and some Greenland ridging in the case of the 12 Euro EPS. Both are showing some semblances of an -EPO  which is reflective on the plots (mean is negative in the longer range). MJO plots are stalling near phase 1 or going null right now. We need 2-3 this time of the year for that teleconnection to correlate best to eastern cold. So workable overall but as I said we need something more dominant teleconnection-wise to materialize to have a better chance at scoring from a late season wintry period. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

 This is from DT: for NC VA WVA MD DEL PA OH KY IND NJ the Risk of any sort of **SIGNIFICANT Winter Weather*** is done. Yes I know some in VA NC MD did not see real winter / snow.

Now the key phrase is **SIGNIFICANT Winter Weather**. Yes of course between now and say APRIL 1 it will get cold from time to time. Like Duh.....

When I say "SIGNIFICANT Winter Weather" that term refers to SNOW and or ICE chances. If the mountains of WVA or western PA see a snow shower... that really does not count. Also notice here I left out the Great Lakes and New England regions from this. I see no real threat for those areas through March 20 but it is too soon to call it for those areas 

this idiot needs to retire. He gives pro-meteorologists a bad name. He could not predict himself out of a wet paper bag. He must have gotten his college degree from Timbuktu

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4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

That lake I was at, Cowans Gap SP,  added 3" of ice since Thursday.  Wowzer. 

That’s a nice little SP nestled in  the mountains. Nice beach and trails. If you drive to the park from the rte 30 side there’s an incredible look out on a fire road to the right. The view is magnificent looking south towards Chambersburg and east towards Harrisburg. 

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7 hours ago, pirates21 said:

That’s a nice little SP nestled in  the mountains. Nice beach and trails. If you drive to the park from the rte 30 side there’s an incredible look out on a fire road to the right. The view is magnificent looking south towards Chambersburg and east towards Harrisburg. 

Yea, its beautiful.  There is another SP in MD very much like Cowans Gap when it comes to the lake, trail, and beach.  Greenbrier SP near Hagerstown.    We do usually enter Cowans Gap the way you suggested...turning onto the access road off route 30 at the peak of the chain there.  That drive alone is worth the time.  When up there Friday that area still had 4-8" of solid, full snow cover.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Made it to 18 this Am.  Cash's' rig is not reporting again but he was 22 before midnight. 

 

1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Lol down to 16 now up to 19 

 

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

14 here this morning.

 

Stellar night for radiating...I finally cracked the teens, got down to 17.6 at 4:35AM. Already up to 28.

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Glad to hear it.  3 days that may hit 70 this week.  

Bring it. I'm so looking forward to walking in pleasant weather. Like MAG, I still don't really see anything to get excited about, so if snow is finished, let's have some nice weather. 40s and winds in March is not fun if there's no real hope for true wintry weather. 

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55 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Bring it. I'm so looking forward to walking in pleasant weather. Like MAG, I still don't really see anything to get excited about, so if snow is finished, let's have some nice weather. 40s and winds in March is not fun if there's no real hope for true wintry weather. 

Starting to think the warm walks may have to wait at least one day.  Full sunshine here and still only up to 29.  

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39 minutes ago, paweather said:

Have a good enjoyable spring week then buckle up the train will be departing for one last hurrah. I won’t be here for it but you guys can enjoy! 
 

* and JB is hyping it through Easter so it has to be true :D

This really begs to ask the question....which is more likely to come true....JB's forecast or seeing the Easter bunny?  I sort of wasted my post 4000 on this.  LOL

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