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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


MAG5035
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If one looks at 12z NAM, you can see a warm layer "trapped" and thats why the sleet is likely happening.  Good news is that as coastal takes shape, that layer quickly gets scoured out and column cools, so IMO sleet may be around but I think by afternoon, its back to a snow event (this is based of NAM which does pretty well wrt temp profiles).

 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

If one looks at 12z NAM, you can see a warm layer "trapped" and thats why the sleet is likely happening.  Good news is that as coastal takes shape, that layer quickly gets scoured out and column cools, so IMO sleet may be around but I think by afternoon, its back to a snow event (this is based of NAM which does pretty well wrt temp profiles).

 

Your right and as I said OBS in VA that turned to sleet some are already back to SN. 

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4 minutes ago, FHS said:

Coronal hole faces Earth

Thursday, 18 February 2021 - 13:19 UTC

Coronal hole faces Earth

It's that time of the solar cycle again where coronal holes become more apparent at lower latitudes! Less than a week ago we already had a similar coronal hole facing our planet. The solar wind stream from that coronal hole caused active geomagnetic conditions on Tuesday. Right now we have yet another northward extension of the southern hemisphere polar coronal hole facing our planet today.

Does this mean this is the last day on Earth? I just want to know so I can have my favorite meal and drink before it. :D

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Morning all.  Just caught up on the 119 messages that were waiting for me.

In Carlisle it is 24.4 degrees with moderate fine snow falling.  I've had periods of larger flakes to the point where it was briefly heavy.  Not sure when it started but I'm up to 1.7" of snow as of 9:20am.  No sleet.  Wonder how far north that line goes?

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Morning all.  Just caught up on the 119 messages that were waiting for me.

In Carlisle it is 24.4 degrees with moderate fine snow falling.  I've had periods of larger flakes to the point where it was briefly heavy.  Not sure when it started but I'm up to 1.7" of snow as of 9:20am.  No sleet.  Wonder how far north that line goes?

Good morning! I don't think there's a traditional mix line with this event - I have sleet mixing in now, but there are reports of snow (mostly sleet, but some are snowing) well to my south across MD and VA. Some of it might be intensity driven, but it's not all of it. I think nut had a good explanation earlier. 

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4 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said:

Interesting, I was on a work call and looked outside and noticed it had that classic mixing look (scattered flakes falling quickly).  I looked back five minutes later and it's back to SN/SN+, no mixing.

Your area over to parts of the DV really got the goods earlier this morning. You have to be around 5" or more now. 

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Here in Carlisle at 10:00am the snow has all but stopped.  I picked up another 0.2" from my previous report for a storm total of 1.9".  Temp holding at 24.4.

Boy, I was encouraged by the 6Z and 12Z maps.  But, has anyone been watching the HRRR?  It gives the overall MDT area a storm total of 4"!  Looks like it just spits for hours rest of the day and through the night.  Disheartening to say the least.  On the other hand, all the bare is covered again and snow is on the trees and it looks very scenic.

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16 minutes ago, FHS said:

im still a 100% believer that a boring sun makes boring winters and convection for parts of are country ,

I'm minoring in Space Weather and Heliophysics here at Millersville. I agree that the sun is without a doubt a huge driver to even our weather at times through the Global Electric Circuit. An active sun with plenty of solar activity has a higher chance to eject SEPs towards Earth which can interact with our ionosphere, transfer down into the lower atmospheric levels through the GEC.... The sun is important lets just say that haha.

 

Still only light pixie dust falling here, might have around 3-4"

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Just now, sauss06 said:

Not sure we're even at 2" in Harrisburg. I can't tell if its sleeting or very fine snow. I'm going to have to go out. 

The snowfall amounts aren't going to be uniform at all, nor is there going to be a gradual increase going south to north or north to south. Banding structure is supporting a wide disparity in accumulations - parts of the Philly area are at 8" already, for example. There are winners and losers scattered throughout. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

The snowfall amounts aren't going to be uniform at all, nor is there going to be a gradual increase going south to north or north to south. Banding structure is supporting a wide disparity in accumulations - parts of the Philly area are at 8" already, for example. There are winners and losers scattered throughout. 

regardless, snow makes me happy :sun:

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Your area over to parts of the DV really got the goods earlier this morning. You have to be around 5" or more now. 

Just went out to measure, a hair over 5".  Parkesburg is closer to 7.5", we *just* missed the beef of that heavier band to our SE earlier.

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