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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


MAG5035
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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I know...nothing easy about PA snows in a Nina. We have to scratch and claw our way to victory. 

Yep. I agree you have been a stickler about that this winter and good for you. I wouldn't want to be a forecaster right now. I know we have warnings up but this again will be a game time decision on whether we get 2-3, 6-8, 8-10. I really thought the overrunning part of the storm was 99% given and we would capitalize on that and any additional on the coastal would be great. Now nothing is for sure.  

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2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:


Part of the problem is the amount of models we have. We suffer from a gluttony of data, but a dearth of wisdom


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3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

To read each model correctly we would need a bounty of verification scores for each model that is fairly localized. And it seems that info is all behind a noaa login. I’ve spent hours looking and it appears I cannot get access to the data I want because I’m not a noaa employee.


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I know but you would think technology would be better, we are in 2021. Being this hobby for years it is really the same every year with models. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

We probably could do much better seeing one model run per day up until 48 hours then 2 a day.  So many forecasts are wrong by using model watching...myself included. 

It would certainly eliminate some of the back and forth nature of this hobby.  The highs and lows come at you quick when you live and die by each model run.

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

As Eric says "folks...it's Meteorology, not Modelology" 

True but not reality anymore unless we take away the drugs.  The AFD's themselves are littered with model references now.  20-30 years ago a model was rarely mentioned but now the AFD's are as much a model run down vs. meteorology.

 

 

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