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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


MAG5035
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16 degrees here his morning. Yesterday's event didn't really effect me much other than freezing stuff on cars. Roads was pretty much bare.

I see we got bumped down overnight. Still has been a much better winter than normal.

Guess today grease and fuel up...

Good Luck to everyone tomorrow!!

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Overnight low here of 20.  I see Bradford hit -1, although that's chump change compared to the -34 that Seagull Lake, MN bottomed out at, anyway.......currently 21/8 here with scattered high clouds.  I think we'll start seeing the convection-allowing models pick up on the sneaky warm layers today and the increased chances for sleet intrusion along the southern tier counties but not before the initial morning thump brings us all a solid 4-8" of fluffy flakes.  The standard northern shift inside of 24-36 hours seems likely as well but hopefully not to an extent that would bankrupt us southern folk, doubtful.  WPC is on board with southern ridge and valley region/eastern CTP land being the best zone for solid totals.  Onward and upward!

day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It has that two phase look to the storm.  Just keeps the really good stuff mostly south but clips Lancaster on the way by. 

I’m not a big fan of the 2 wave idea.  You get 2-4” round 1 then by the time 2nd wave starts you lose the mids and switch over. (Past storms)   I’m hoping we get the qpf bomb where the snow starts hot and heavy, and continues with no let up 

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3 minutes ago, paweather said:

so many Low Pressures. It comes back around at 21z. So the idea is there will be breaks where everyone will think it is over and then comes back. 

yeah i dont think you were done w/ the run when you posted that.  Truth is we are getting close enough that most in our forum are in for something, but so long as nooners hold or even tick back north at many of us expect, we should still be fine w/ this event.  Sligthly south is a great spot right now IMO

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’m not a big fan of the 2 wave idea.  You get 2-4” round 1 then by the time 2nd wave starts you lose the mids and switch over.    I’m hoping we get the qpf bomb where the snow starts hot and heavy, and continues with no let up 

Yea, me as well.  That was why I was a bit disappointed in the HRRR look.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’m not a big fan of the 2 wave idea.  You get 2-4” round 1 then by the time 2nd wave starts you lose the mids and switch over.    I’m hoping we get the qpf bomb where the snow starts hot and heavy, and continues with no let up 

Yeah as MAG so eloquently stated, w/ part 2 we need coastal to wrap up and get us an easterly fetch to throw the goods back this way, but even if that doesnt happen light overrunning events may attack the thermals, but may not wreck them, so I'm sorta ok w/ either.  

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It has that two phase look to the storm.  Just keeps the really mostly south but clips Lancaster on the way by. 

Yes it does have that two-parter look to it that we've seen on some globals for a while now.  With that said, I put VERY little stock in the HRRR at anything past hours 8-10ish, just hot garbage at range.  But it can be useful at sniffing out trends as the start time becomes imminent.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes it does have that two-parter look to it that we've seen on some globals for a while now.  With that said, I put VERY little stock in the HRRR at anything past hours 8-10ish, just hot garbage at range.  But it can be useful at sniffing out trends as the start time becomes imminent.

Agreed, it was just the only 12Z out at the point I looked.  Nam is getting close to being at the game time.   

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Agreed, it was just the only 12Z out at the point I looked.  Nam is getting close to being at the game time.   

haha yes I know the feeling, just itching for something to look at.  I'm right there with ya, always looking even when I know there's little value to be had.  NAM looks almost unchanged to my eyes early on.

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Someone's going to bust hard in Lanco - Horst going for 2-5" south of Rt. 30 and 4-8" north...and once again, believes that a changeover will occur long before models say it will...

Yep the man knows.  This is what I was getting at earlier with the near-term Meso models picking up on the sleet intrusion as we progress through the day.  The resolutions of the globals always struggle with those narrow layers.  Already seeing that a bit with the NAM, even more so with the 3k.  Hopefully those of us north of 30 can stave it off until the heaviest rates have come through, which it seems we will.

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yep the man knows.  This is what I was getting at earlier with the near-term Meso models picking up on the sleet intrusion as we progress through the day.  The resolutions of the globals always struggle with those narrow layers.  Already seeing that a bit with the NAM, even more so with the 3k.  Hopefully those of us north of 30 can stave it off until the heaviest rates have come through, which it seems we will.

Yes, he's not afraid to go against ALL guidance...and he's usually spot on OR even he underplays the advancement of the warmth aloft.

Sterling is going 6-8" in Harford and Cecil counties, hence my post that someone is going to bust. 

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