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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


MAG5035
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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well, you have Horst on your side which definitely gives me pause. He's been saying that Thursday is a rainer in Lanco. 

Latest from Horst......

(1/2) Keeping with the recent trend...tonight's system is rather weak & north-tracking. Temps are marginal, but colder outlying and low lying areas may get some front-end ice...whereas milder areas (and treated surfaces) may see mainly plain rain. #StayAware

(2/2) The next system in the queue looks stronger and more impactful with snow developing before daybreak Thursday...then an extended period of sleet/freezing rain Thursday midday and afternoon. Definitely not a good day for travel, especially heading northward.

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3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Latest from Horst......

(1/2) Keeping with the recent trend...tonight's system is rather weak & north-tracking. Temps are marginal, but colder outlying and low lying areas may get some front-end ice...whereas milder areas (and treated surfaces) may see mainly plain rain. #StayAware

(2/2) The next system in the queue looks stronger and more impactful with snow developing before daybreak Thursday...then an extended period of sleet/freezing rain Thursday midday and afternoon. Definitely not a good day for travel, especially heading northward.

Thanks for posting that, I hadn't seen it yet. Sounds like he's warming up to a more wintry event, which is good. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks for posting that, I hadn't seen it yet. Sounds like he's warming up to a more wintry event, which is good. 

Yes it seems like he's coming around.  You aren't kidding about the Ukie! 2M, 925, 850 and 700 temps all look to hold throughout the duration of the storm for most of the forum too.  Color me intrigued. 

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes it seems like he's coming around.  You aren't kidding about the Ukie! 2M, 925, 850 and 700 temps all look to hold throughout the duration of the storm for most of the forum too.  Color me intrigued. 

I like having the Ukie on my side - I think it often gets overlooked but it's overall verification scores are pretty good. We're building a pretty good team for Thursday. 

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hey I’m on my phone. Can someone take a look at 12z models for Wednesday in north east Texas over to Dallas and let me know they say?  Thanks in advance. 

Temps in upper teens to low 20s at this point and they don't seem to rise much from there.  QPF around a half inch for most throughout the day.

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4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes it seems like he's coming around.  You aren't kidding about the Ukie! 2M, 925, 850 and 700 temps all look to hold throughout the duration of the storm for most of the forum too.  Color me intrigued. 

Its like the anti NAM right now.  Hard to buy into either of them with almost opposite reflections of the SLP.  One inland and the other a Miller A like LSV crusher. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its like the anti NAM right now.  Hard to buy into either of them with almost opposite reflections of the SLP.  One inland and the other a Miller A like LSV crusher. 

Very true but certainly more support for the Ukie at this moment, albeit not overwhelmingly so.  The 12z Euro run coming up here is huge, should really be in its wheelhouse at this point. 

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Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Very true but certainly more support for the Ukie at this moment, albeit not overwhelmingly so.  The 12z Euro run coming up here is huge, should really be in its wheelhouse at this point. 

Yea, UK's depiction has more support than the Nam right now.   UK almost never transfers and just rides under us.  There is a reflection trying to boil up off VA Beach at hour 78 but it never really takes over vs. the primary just plowing off the coast. 

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