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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


MAG5035
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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I mean...3 days ago, YOU were under several inches of snow for tonight's storm. How much are you expecting now? It doesn't matter what you post - how many times this year has 4-8" been reduced to 3-5" to be reduced to 2-3" and then to nothing? 

Do you realize how far you'll need to drive to see snow tonight? 

i'd go to Candersons parents house

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For tonight's storm the southern extend of the snow zone has shifted northwest like 250 miles over the past 3 days...

The models that kept the primary more dominant into the Ohio Valley (CMC comes to mind) will probably score better on this system from what we are seeing in short term trends.   The Euro had a weak surface reflection get into Ohio but had (apparently) incorrectly started the transfer near the Delmarva and turning surface winds here sooner than what is probably going to happen. 

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NAM gives serious pause to Thursday. Way more amped and likely zero snow here as depicted. 

Because it's keying all of the energy on the lead vort heading west, our winds are very unfavorably out of the SW. (just as Nut said a few hours ago)

I liked this threat yesterday assuming NE flow with confluence - we need that or we're cooked. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

NAM gives serious pause to Thursday. Way more amped and likely zero snow here as depicted. 

Because it's keying all of the energy on the lead vort heading west, our winds are very unfavorably out of the SW. (just as Nut said a few hours ago)

I liked this threat yesterday assuming NE flow with confluence - we need that or we're cooked. 

Between the Globals and HI-Res models it is ridiculous right now in differences.  

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I lost interest on the Monday/Tuesday thing 3 or 4 days ago. I never really believed the snow or ice that was being shown on models (at least for LSV).

More interest for Thursday. I do feel there will be a good thump of snow. Just how much and how long we hold on will be the key.

We will switch over to sleet or sleet/freezing rain and over to drizzle/dry slot.


.

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Heaviest snow looks to target areas to our south.  Right where we want it :whistle:

Yeah not buying that at all. I think per GFS and Para they get a front end thump that is good for us. This low is coming north and attacking the high to our north. There is no suppression worries at least right now. It is actually a good sign to see the level of cold air drawn down into the MA. 

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