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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


MAG5035
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3 hours ago, Voyager said:

If you look at the ice hazard maps for the entire state (not just the CWA), Carbon County gets .25 to .50" of ice while Schuylkill gets .10 to .20". I guess the ice storm will stop right at the county line, which is how it's depicted on the map...lol

 

yeah i never understood that stupid reasoning. 

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Agreed. It seems like a lot of the meso's are putting out some crazy ice accretions. Much higher than the NWS has. But, in my experience, the ice is usually far less than even what the NWS forecasts for me. It seems like we almost always get to a 33 surface temp quicker than indicated.

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7 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Agreed. It seems like a lot of the meso's are putting out some crazy ice accretions. Much higher than the NWS has. But, in my experience, the ice is usually far less than even what the NWS forecasts for me. It seems like we almost always get to a 33 surface temp quicker than indicated.

i probably should have posted his tweet he had for this. apparently he's using a algorithm that more accurately predicts how much ice will fall compared to what the models are actually showing so what i posted is actually the lower end of what the hrrr was showing. i do agree ice is really hard to forecast and we always usually get much less

 

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1 hour ago, basehore said:

Wow this non stop nw sprint is getting unreal.  Hopefully the late night run stops it.  If not this could be a Detroit special and we move on to Thursday looking for white gold and not ice.  

Yea it's not going to get that far over, it's too cold there lol.

However, pretty much all guidance has moved to running this surface low up the west side of the Apps basically up to SW PA before it shows any signs of jumping to the coast. That's not going to cut it, we need this to stay under PA. Really the only difference this makes for central PA is it just makes thing's icier (more freezing rain) since there is enough of a CAD setup to hang in surface temps near or below freezing over all the area for a good portion of the event before maybe spiking above freezing into the LSV below the turnpike right at the end. This is going to affect the northern tier's snow accumulation's some as the mixing is likely going to drive pretty far into northern PA now with a track like that. Still should be a half decent snowfall up there though. A stripe somewhere in the central counties is probably going to see a decent sleet accumulation  (1-2") where somewhat deeper cold likes to stay anchored. The silver lining? The majority of the main wave of precip associated with the surface low Monday night is out of the area in about 10hrs or so. Then we can focus in on the next incoming mess Thursday. 

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I'm focusing on Thursday's storm right now...and it's looking quite promising that many of us have a significant snowfall with 6-12" for almost all of our subforum.  For this snow map, all the snow amounts on an arc from Altoona to State College to Williamsport to Scranton running south and east are all from the Thursday storm.  It only goes over to rain for a few hours at the end early Friday when temps crawl up into the mid 30's.  Also, looking at Tuesday's storm, any ice accumulations we see are all going to melt as temps shoot up into the low to mid 40's for a few hours Tuesday afternoon before retreating back down below freezing.  Other good news is that temps are only in the low 20's during all of the snow portion of the storm and then begin to rise as the transition to sleet, freezing rain and finally to rain takes place overnight into Friday morning.  Temps Friday only peak in the mid 30's before crashing back down below freezing later Friday and then remain below freezing continuously through to Monday afternoon.  I'm letting myself get "a little excited" for this one for now.

snku_acc.us_state_pa.png

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Can't help but marvel at the craziness of this weather event down in Texas. San Antonio socked in with heavy snow and FOURTEEN DEGREES. Brownsville, TX sitting colder than MDT right now at 32ºF and reporting light snow. The Brownsville NWS was saying in their discussion their ASOS sites aren't even equipped with freezing rain sensors bc well, guess that stuff never happens down there lol. 

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The 0z Euro was great with the front end thump of snow for the LSV on Thursday.
This run keeps the LSV as snow until mid afternoon Thursday before the mixing gets underway in the southern tier. Here is the 4pm Thursday panel.

The snow map is nice because it gives us room for a north shift to not hurt too much at this range in terms of snow totals.

9A0E2FDE-4857-4C03-A5E0-BCE4D5C81F61.png

4993E760-3771-46D3-BAA7-A4F776E67CB3.png

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I'm not exactly liking this set-up for today. We have a slight glaze from a bit of light freezing rain, but the bulk of the precipitation seems to come in after sunset tonight. Seeing as I'm a second shift truck driver, conditions will be good enough for me to start my shift, then deteriorate halfway through, and then I might get caught up in a potentially bad situation. I'd rather this come in now, or at noon so I could just legitimately stay home and stay safe...

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18 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm.

#itshappeningthursday

Keeping those positive vibes going! This is still a somewhat precarious setup, and timing is critical, but for now...

#itshappeningthursday :) 

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12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Keeping those positive vibes going! This is still a somewhat precarious setup, and timing is critical, but for now...

#itshappeningthursday :) 

Dunno....By thursday, it may be a state college to Erie special..at best.  The norther adjustments are just relentless, and quite frankly....pissin me off.  

Go loop the GFS...thursday setup looks alot like tonights. 

I just dont feel it like you do.  Hope I'm wrong but someone needs to show me something more than snow maps to make me "feel better".  too much ridging and HP like tonight wont anchor.  I feel like Thursday may end up at best, slightly south of tonights mess.  Sorry to piss in ya'lls morning cheerios, but I just dont see anything thats going to keep from getting cut once again. 

 500's for tonight.

gfs_z500a_us_4.png

 

Thurday

gfs_z500a_us_15.png

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@pasnownut the difference is the Arctic air gets to move in by Wednesday after this early week storm to set the stage for better CAD for Thursday. 
We have a good amount of room to maneuver. Heck the Para right now is targeting South of the MD line with the best snow.

Right now there is a major model Op & Ensemble consensus for a solid front end thump of snow on Thursday. This is 3 days out, not 3 weeks!

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Dunno....By thursday, it may be a state college to Erie special..at best.  The norther adjustments are just relentless, and quite frankly....pissin me off.  

Go loop the GFS...thursday setup looks alot like tonights. 

I just dont feel it like you do.  Hope I'm wrong but someone needs to show me something more than snow maps to make me "feel better".  too much ridging and HP like tonight wont anchor.  I feel like Thursday may end up at best, slightly south of tonights mess.  Sorry to piss in ya'lls morning cheerios, but I just dont see anything thats going to keep from getting cut once again. 

 500's for tonight.

 

 

 

 

Oh boy you are up the creek now.  You did not feel out the room before posting this! :cliff:

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13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@pasnownut the difference is the Arctic air gets to move in by Wednesday after this early week storm to set the stage for better CAD for Thursday. 
We have a good amount of room to maneuver. Heck the Para right now is targeting South of the MD line with the best snow.

Right now there is a major model Op & Ensemble consensus for a solid front end thump of snow on Thursday. This is 3 days out, not 3 weeks!

confluence is further north on thusday to my snakebit eyes.  Yes it is a bit more pronounced, but verbatim its another norther deal for most.  I dont see the arctic air you do, but ok. 

tonight

gfs_T700_us_4.png

thusday

gfs_T700_us_16.png

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Oh boy you are up the creek now.  You did not feel out the room before posting this! :cliff:

feel out da room???? lol  I guess thats the psu thing you guys were chattin about?

Dunno man, I just dont want to get set up once again.  Yes its been a decent run, but down here in the lsv its not been near as good as what you snow hogs have been getting....

:weep:

and yeah....I hate mondays (except the ones that are holidays :P)

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