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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


MAG5035
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CTP's latest update on Mon/Tues. I'd be ecstatic with that clean of a storm and 4-6"...but personally expecting a much messier outcome. I'm always a proponent of the cold hanging in better in C-PA than modeled, especially in the interior counties.. but CTP is really bullish inside the area boxed in by I-80 and the turnpike (N-S) and US 219 & US 11/15 (E-W).

That area in particular is going to be the hardest to forecast, and clearly CTP is favoring a colder column and perhaps factoring climo in with the track. 12z Euro still the coldest aloft while having the most expansive freezing rain, which I still don't get how the p-types get ZR out of a large portion of the interior central showing solidly below zero at 925 and surface.. and even 850. Issue is, column also warms between 850mb all the way up to 700mb in this zone at least briefly with 700 temps right around 0ºC or slightly above in roughly the eastern half of PA on some guidance. So I think even if the mostly frozen precip did happen here that it could be more sleet than snow, which would easily knock those bullish totals down. 

Otherwise, my main points from last night's post are pretty much unchanged. I personally think CTP should consider watches for some south central counties (all current non-watch counties NW of Franklin/Perry counties as that would be the region with the best chance to achieve a stripe of .25"+ ice in the very possible event that we get more of a freezing rain/sleet deal vs the more snow/sleet event being portrayed there in CTP's forecast. 

 

1713879068_ScreenShot2021-02-14at12_53_18PM.png.b1f34e4ebafd681729e4efd19f6c0ad1.png

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm.

#itshappeningthursday

Only real big difference is the more robust high pressure progged to our north and NE for Thursday (and overall in the rest of the CONUS. That was the kind of high pressure models had north of us for Mon/Tues a few days ago whenever it was looking mostly snowy in PA. Helps deflect the surface low to the coast in time and at worst anchors a CAD wedge if the low tries to work up the other side of the Apps. Going to be extremely important to maintain that, because Thursday's storm could easily do the same thing the next one up seems destined to do, especially in the LSV. 

Mon/Tues storm arrival:

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp_anom-3455200.thumb.png.505426dbf1bf2d83746d7dd5f52d0594.png

 

Thursday storm arrival:

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp_anom-3660400.thumb.png.237dfc51c21d99610a9623d72fab7719.png

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40 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Does anyone know when the last time the ENTIRE state of Texas was under a Winter Storm Warning at the same time?

Untitled.jpg

 

Probably never. That is a gigantic expanse of the southern US under winter storm warnings. And those wind chill warnings that cover pretty much the entire north central US also are including a large portion of those winter storm warned counties. Def a historic and wide reaching arctic air outbreak. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

PAZ033>036-056>059-063-150900-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0006.210215T2100Z-210216T1800Z/
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
and Carlisle
346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to two tenths of an inch, with locally greater than a
  quarter of an inch, mainly over the higher terrain.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The best potential for sustained freezing
  rain is Monday night.

 

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Update lol 

Yup lol just saw. It does make sense since there's still time to review more guidance tonight ahead of this. Saw Mount Holly go right to warnings for half their CWA and figured CTP was about to do the same. So watches on a swath of south-central PA for the heightened ice concern (possible areas of .25"+). Some of the central/north central watch counties plus the non watch counties to advisory for more mixing eating into snow totals and likely more of a sleet event over ZR for the mix type. 

Also, I understand the LSV folks kind of tuning this out for the Thursday one but this next one starting well, tomorrow is still going to get everyone in here with at least a fairly high impact advisory level winter storm. 

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3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yup lol just saw. It does make sense since there's still time to review more guidance tonight ahead of this. Saw Mount Holly go right to warnings for half their CWA and figured CTP was about to do the same. So watches on a swath of south-central PA for the heightened ice concern (possible areas of .25"+). Some of the central/north central watch counties plus the non watch counties to advisory for more mixing eating into snow totals and likely more of a sleet event over ZR for the mix type. 

Also, I understand the LSV folks kind of tuning this out for the Thursday one but this next one starting well, tomorrow is still going to get everyone in here with at least a fairly high impact advisory level winter storm. 

You are right, with all of the cold air around, many of us could be in store for major icing tomorrow pm into Tuesday. 

Hopefully we are chiseling out of the ice on Tuesday as we are staring down an approaching  major snow to ice event on Thursday.

Busy week ahead!

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20 minutes ago, Ruin said:

man nws in our area are jokes they love to downplay storms so much you see the hate they have for winter storms. I just dont know lol.

I actually think some of the NWS Met's relish winter storms and their long AFD's show it albeit a pain when they copy and paste the AFD from period to period.  Lots of non forecasters read those AFD's.  They are no longer the domain of weather heads.   I usually provide them myself when sending forecasts, 

 

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

You are right, with all of the cold air around, many of us could be in store for major icing tomorrow pm into Tuesday. 

Hopefully we are chiseling out of the ice on Tuesday as we are staring down an approaching  major snow to ice event on Thursday.

Busy week ahead!

Fun winter week! 

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Speaking of AFD updates haha.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 pm update... Overall, a northwestward shift in the cyclone
track for the early week winter storm has continued with today`s
model runs. The consequences for this across Central PA are
somewhat less snowfall, but a higher freezing rain risk for
areas near and just south of I-78 and US-22.

A shot of mostly light snow still looks to move across the
Commonwealth Monday morning to early afternoon, but with the
bulk of the steadier/heavier precipitation holding off until
later in the day and at night. Strong low to mid-level jets will
bring in much deeper moisture tomorrow night, along with
significant warming above the boundary layer. Closer to the
PA/NY border, thermal profiles still support mostly snow, with
perhaps a brief wintry mix in the pre-dawn early Tuesday. Thus,
we felt comfortable with a Winter Storm Warning for the northern
tier, with generally 6-9" of snow foreseen. Farther south,
initial snow will go over to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing
rain, with a likely change over to rain for a time in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

The primary uncertainties involve sleet vs. freezing rain and
how much ice accretion can thus take place over some of our
southern counties. At this time, we felt the course of least
regret was to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the potential for
localized ice accretions GTE 0.25" from the Laurel Highlands,
northeast to just north of Harrisburg, then over towards the
southern Poconos (Lebanon and Schuylkill counties). A strong
ageostrophic northerly flow and fairly cold air perched just to
our north and northeast will make it difficult for surface
readings to go above freezing in some locales across the Watch
area.

For all unmentioned locations, a Winter Weather Advisory seems
in order, for a general 2-6" of snow, along with a
sleet/freezing rain mix for a time Monday night.

Steadier precipitation should begin to wind down from southwest
to northeast, as a mid-level dry slot rotates overhead towards
daybreak Tuesday.

 

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