Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2-7-21 Sunday 8-12 hour nor'easter snowstorm roughly 5A-5P


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Same.  If our area only gets a 2-3 inch refresher, I am OK with it.  Lot more snow chances to come.  Plus I have plans tomorrow that I want to see through without much snow disruption 

I hate hearing that we have more chances because it’s not a guarantee of anything. Rather this one just pan out. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Upton 1:33 pm

 

ill take it

 

Overall, expecting a widespread 6-9 inches across portions of NE NJ, NYC, Southern Westchester, Long Island and Southern CT. Can not rule out a few 10+ inch amounts across eastern LI and far eastern CT, if any of those 2+ inch per hour rates do occur. Further North and West, across western Passaic in NJ, much of the lower hudson Valley and northern Fairfield, amounts may be slightly lower, with less precipitation expected. Snowfall amounts are expected to range form 3-6 inches. Have converted the entire watch area to warnings, along with northern New Haven in CT and western Bergen in NJ. Northern Fairfield in CT, much of the Lower Hudson Valley and Western Passaic, winter weather advisories have been issued.

 

Wow they must be interpreting the models different  than we are 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

I hate hearing that we have more chances because it’s not a guarantee of anything. Rather this one just pan out. 

Chances just mean that.  Chances. Not guarantees. Keep expectations minimal and if those chances verify big, then you are pleasantly surprised.  If not, then it is per expectation. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting to look more like a rain event.       My High T yesterday was 51* and I currently (2pm) have 45*.  (46* at 3pm.)      All I am seeing are T's in the mid 30's for the whole event.         Remember one week ago this was a rain event with the primary low hundreds of miles up into Canada, just dragging a front with it.

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA

12Z Cobb Method outputs:          GFS  1"      NAM   6", mixing issues

 

  • Haha 2
  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Chances just mean that.  Chances. Not guarantees. Keep expectations minimal and if those chances verify big, then you are pleasantly surprised.  If not, then it is per expectation. 

Not so much responding to you as the post you were responding to but In the interior there will be definitely be more chances and on the coast this one still may pan out. Also we can’t control whether this pans out or not. Also the more chances are within 5 days it’s not like fantasy runs.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Upton 1:33 pm

 

ill take it

 

Overall, expecting a widespread 6-9 inches across portions of NE NJ, NYC, Southern Westchester, Long Island and Southern CT. Can not rule out a few 10+ inch amounts across eastern LI and far eastern CT, if any of those 2+ inch per hour rates do occur. Further North and West, across western Passaic in NJ, much of the lower hudson Valley and northern Fairfield, amounts may be slightly lower, with less precipitation expected. Snowfall amounts are expected to range form 3-6 inches. Have converted the entire watch area to warnings, along with northern New Haven in CT and western Bergen in NJ. Northern Fairfield in CT, much of the Lower Hudson Valley and Western Passaic, winter weather advisories have been issued.

 

That is wording carried forward from 4am.  The 1:33pm AFD updated the near term but not the rest.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Starting to look more like a rain event.       My High T yesterday was 51* and I currently (2pm) have 45*.        All I am seeing are T's in the mid 30's for the whole event.         Remember one week ago this was a rain event with the primary low hundreds of miles up into Canada, just dragging a front with it.

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA

 

Which storm is this? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hoping the coasties do well tomorrow. 

Right? I don’t live there, but if it makes other people happy, it doesn’t take away from your own happiness.

I will be pleased if we get a little conversational snow tomorrow in Morristown that doesn’t add to potential roof issues or future flooding concerns.


.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As per Mt. Holly 11am update

Storm Details:

Timing... In stark contrast to the system earlier this week, this
will be a quick hitter with most of the precipitation being in and
out of the area in about 12 hours. Precipitation should begin
working into the area from SW-NE around 06-09Z with precipitation
reaching far NW areas by 12-15Z. The system`s departure will also be
rapid with precipitation largely ending from SW-NE between 18-21Z.

Precipitation Types... Unlike the previous two significant winter
events we had, there will not be a cold/dry antecedent airmass in
place when precipitation begins early Sunday morning. Rather a
"stale" airmass characterized by temperatures in the low 30s and
dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s will be in place. Additionally
the heaviest snowfall will likely occur during the daytime hours,
which while not overly significant in early February, can limit
accumulations somewhat. The one pro for snowfall accumulations will
be the intensity of lift within the aforementioned FGEN band, and
dynamical cooling within this band should nudge temperatures down.
Given all these factors, expect that areas NW of I-95 will see
nearly all snow, areas near I-95 will likely see mostly snow, but
could see some rain mix in at times (particularly when rates are
low), with some mixing likely in southern Delmarva and the Coastal
Plain of NJ. Given that we won`t really have a CAD setup in place
think significant sleet is unlikely, although right at ptype
transition zones we could see it briefly mix in.

Snow Amounts... A very challenging forecast given uncertainties in
both the northward extent of QPF, and the southward extent of
accumulating snowfall. After a consistent northward/more amplified
trend Thursday, there has been a bit of "windshield wipering" the
last couple cycles with the low`s placement and thus the resulting
placement of QPF/snowfall. The latest consensus is a low positioned
a bit further SE of the 18Z suite`s consensus, which would place the
I-95 corridor in the sweet spot of this event (i.e. the intersection
of sufficiently cold profiles and sufficiently high QPF) and the
current placement of the winter storm warning reflects this.
However, any northward shifts would likely cut snow amounts (due to
increased mixing) near and SE of I-95 while bumping up amounts in
the NW, with the converse happening with a any southern shifts. But,
assuming a perfect prog, amounts in the 4-7 inch range look likely
in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor with 3-5 inch amounts buffering
this on either side (where advisories are in place). The most
significant modifications to the snowfall forecast with this package
was near the coast, where a mix with rain looks likely and amounts
will largely be under 2 inches. It should be noted that there is the
potential for higher snowfall amounts within the band (where rates
may approach 2 inches an hour), but would like to really get in the
CAMs temporal wheelhouse (e.g. <24 hours) before increasing amounts
further.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...