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February Banter 2021


George BM
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7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'll say this...the end-of-season map is going to lay bare how utterly frustrating this season has been for those within 10 miles NW of 95 - at least those of us in VA.

I don't think the grass on my front lawn has been fully covered once, and I actually cut it down pretty low for the last cut of the season.

I want @mappy to contour every 1".

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26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I want @mappy to contour every 1".

I say contour it in micrometers around I-95 and southeast, gradually transitioning that to meters as you get far enough north and west of there.  But don't put a scale on it.  That way, it will give the illusion that I-95 was in the jackpot zone this year! :lol:

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I feel like I have missed some shit today. 

Just got home and given all the rain, I am surprised how much glacier cover I still have here. My yard is the local flatland equivalent to Mount PSU.

Anyway it rained it ass off today, but I never bothered to clean the glacier out of my rain gauge so it reads 0.00. I will have to check some local reports. 

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The jackpot of this winter has been the Catoctin Mountains.  Specifically, northwest Frederick County and eastern Washington County.  Those areas have about 55" for the season.

About 60 miles due south of there, as the crow flies, there  was only about 10".  Crazy N-S gradient right at that longitude.  

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2 hours ago, H2O said:

Mt PSU will look like a zit

This was from a project they did years ago that used both snowfall reports and estimates using a model that factored in geography to come up with an accurate snowfall map.  I lost the key years ago but you can figure it out from what known locations get in each color code.  Love how my ridge shows up on the map.  Shame I can't find the whole project online anymore, it had really cool maps like average first and last day of snow, average days of snowcover, and average largest storm. 

MtPSU.thumb.png.75fc5eb3259695c5812b76ce13cec8c5.png

 

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Did some after-dark hiking on nearby trails through the woods.  I was only sinking into the snow a couple of inches with each step.  Been a long time since I could walk "on top" of a snow pack like that.  It's composed of five snowfalls and some glazes along with numerous freezes.  Really cool conditions.  Sad to see it melt.

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6 hours ago, mattie g said:

I'll say this...the end-of-season map is going to lay bare how utterly frustrating this season has been for those within 10 miles NW of 95 - at least those of us in VA.

I don't think the grass on my front lawn has been fully covered once, and I actually cut it down pretty low for the last cut of the season.

Yeah, I feel your pain. Everyone far outside the beltway (to the north and west) has had snow cover for almost the whole month meanwhile here near the snow hole known as DC there were 1-3 days when the grass was covered. We still got March and then we have next year(s). 

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So as we near the end of “winter” what would y’all’s opinion be on how and why we failed on so many potential big events in the mid Atlantic?? It truly did seem like it was all around us this year but we could never score area wide and why the models even short term models failed badly on many events? Last week was a prime example, many of us expected to start snow and several hours of snow only to wake up to sleet from the start. 

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49 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

So as we near the end of “winter” what would y’all’s opinion be on how and why we failed on so many potential big events in the mid Atlantic?? It truly did seem like it was all around us this year but we could never score area wide and why the models even short term models failed badly on many events? Last week was a prime example, many of us expected to start snow and several hours of snow only to wake up to sleet from the start. 

The big storm that was missed was more of a situation where climo came back to bite with regards to how the storm unfolded. You need anomalous amplification of the trough with a farther south transfer, as well a primary as lower latitude to prevent either being skipped over, or warm air flooding through the mid-levels to cause an abrupt change in ptype. That last part was why the failures were more common this year. WAA snowfalls are efficient when the antecedent airmass ahead of the storm is more arctic in nature and not an in-situ situation where there's moderating boundary layer temps due to a vacating high pressure, or weakening high over Quebec/Northern New England. It can produce some prolific snowfall. The timing was off several times, and WAA ALWAYS is under-modeled in the Mid Atlantic. That's where knowing climo is important. The higher elevated areas north and west of the fall line will ultimately win more times than not due to colder temps favored to hang around longer. With so many storms taking the WAA route, and pretty much all of them with in-situ CAD signatures as fresh arctic air was not present during the systems, it ended up being even more pronounced in the favored regions, adding to the frustration. You NEED fresh arctic cold in the low lands/east of the fall line to score big events. Those are fewer and far between historically, however.

I know a lot of people are frustrated, especially with models busting terribly this year for whatever reason. It MAY have something to do with lower data feeds from aviation thanks to Covid? I don't have the answer to that specificity. The fact they were able to sniff out events pretty well this year was a positive, but the short term was rough. It was an anomaly in performance compared to the past. We'll see if there's a shift later next fall/winter. Meteorology, not modelology :) 

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

FYI...vaccine appointments at M&T Bank stadium available now.  Hurry.  covidvax.maryland.gov. 

Was able to schedule 3 folks we know over 65 already.

just went through the initial information for my mom and no appointments available. 

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Just now, mappy said:

just went through the initial information for my mom and no appointments available. 

Yup, we just tried again and it's all booked.  7am is the time, that's when new appointments drop.  We ended up getting 5 appointments for friends and family 65+. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yup, we just tried again and it's all booked.  7am is the time, that's when new appointments drop.  We ended up getting 5 appointments for friends and family 65+. 

good to know. ill try again tomorrow morning. thanks friend. she's been trying for weeks and no such luck

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