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East TN, SWVA, E KY, and Plateau NW flow obs. Feb 1 - 2


Holston_River_Rambler
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3 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Idk what happened, it wasn't but 30 minutes I looked outside and just went out and it's pouring snow.  Already sticking to the roads in some spots 

I know man, it’s like after 3:30 the sun stopped having as much influence on the temperature and the banding that set up really cooled things off. Down to 29 now

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Still looks very NNW with the flow at this point, even almost due N to S at times, after a small pivot to NW earlier. Not sure the actual NW flow has started or will. MRX mentioned something about it being NNW yesterday in the AFD.  That may mean snow for different folks than a normal NW flow event, at least for now. 

 

The reason I mention this is I always say know your back yard here in the region. Small differences make big differences for a lot of back yards. How well you do or don't in NNW or almost N flow is worth filing away for the future.  

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Another odd thing about this event, 98 percent of flow events are connected to Lake Michigan.  This one actually looks like it's picking up some Erie moisture instead and it's pointed down into the mountains further north than normal flow snow. I'm curious about whether or not LeConte is getting hit hard like they do when it's true NW with the Lake Michigan connection. 

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14 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Heavy snow now. 27 surface temp and 850s are approaching -10c.  Flakes are decent size and coming down in buckets. 
 

ground smoothing over.  Wonder what the ceiling is for this event.... several hours left..

From my understanding it's supposed to snow till tomorrow morning

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Still looks very NNW with the flow at this point, even almost due N to S at times, after a small pivot to NW earlier. Not sure the actual NW flow has started or will. MRX mentioned something about it being NNW yesterday in the AFD.  That may mean snow for different folks than a normal NW flow event, at least for now. 

 

The reason I mention this is I always say know your back yard here in the region. Small differences make big differences for a lot of back yards. How well you do or don't in NNW or almost N flow is worth filing away for the future.  

Excellent post and points John ! The slight trajectory difference has really affected here. Only a dusting since the half inch this morning! Downsloping from Mountains along KY border apparently. Temp down to 27.6. .  Odd, regardless in that Kingsport and back to Morristown is cashing in more. No real upslope area there. Maybe the residual moisture along with warmer ground over there allowing development.??. Anyway, glad for you guys. You deserve it, even if my home fails with this one.

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Feeling pretty good about this event in Greene County. Currently at 1.25 inches. With the RAP showing some support at 700mb and the coldest 850mb temperatures still being advected into the area, there should be continued development/enhancement as it interacts with the terrain.

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13 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

Feeling pretty good about this event in Greene County. Currently at 1.25 inches. With the RAP showing some support at 700mb and the coldest 850mb temperatures still being advected into the area, there should be continued development/enhancement as it interacts with the terrain.

Yep, just looked outside and it's coming down good.  I imagine travel tomorrow will be difficult, the roads here are white already

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29 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Excellent post and points John ! The slight trajectory difference has really affected here. Only a dusting since the half inch this morning! Downsloping from Mountains along KY border apparently. Temp down to 27.6. .  Odd, regardless in that Kingsport and back to Morristown is cashing in more. No real upslope area there. Maybe the residual moisture along with warmer ground over there allowing development.??. Anyway, glad for you guys. You deserve it, even if my home fails with this one.

I figured you might be doing well. Since the pivot is east right now and it's pulling in the Erie moisture i figured SWVA was in a good spot. I guess Black Mountain Kentucky and High Knob may be down sloping you.  You'll see it really hit hard 15 or 20 miles in the shadow of the mountains then redevelop further east.

That happens even more pronounced in North Carolina. The upslope rides up the west side of the mountains here, spills over into NC, then the down slope areas hit. Then you'll see redevelopment 50 or 60 miles east of the shadow. 

I'd guess thats what is happening South and Southeast of you.  

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