Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, 2001kx said: 1.3" Here so far with light snow.. How is that any different from normal? I've been spending a lot of time up your way this winter and it's been insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Wmsptwx said: I think we see nice 5 to 9 out of this thing yet, especially with parent low being healthy still. Yeah thats what im thinking as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: closing in on 3" with the best rates so far 27 bubbler you should getting mod snow Yep it's coming down pretty good. 2.5" or so here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Hard to ignore the trend on guidance centering the biggest amounts on far eastern PA/northern half of NJ into NYC with the coastal low getting captured a bit higher up the coast. Now when i say "biggest amounts" I"m mainly talking about the excessive stuff (20+). I still like the general 8-14" in our region, but we're going to have to watch the southern tier and NW part of C-PA for some bust potential either direction as well as a zone TBD that could see higher amounts than the said 8-14". As mentioned, the most intense deform from the coastal winding up targets far eastern PA/Nj/NYC, but the overall fetch and likely extension of this deform is still going to reach back into C-PA and questions are where and how intense? You look at models like the 3k NAM and RGEM and they actually arc the best snow with this more through northern/central, while Euro/GFS runs southern third of the state. I'm not sure the near term guidance (HRRR) is robust enough with the precip shield/banding later on tonight into tomorrow but there's a lot to be determined yet and HRRR (outside of the 0,6,12,18z) doesn't even reach out to where the coastal really winds up yet. Also have to monitor the slot far southern tier LSV and maybe some mix while precip's light but worst case scenario I still expect at least 5-8". Again though, the overall picture is this continues to look like a long duration general 8-14" snowfall over the area. Ratios. Taking a rough gauge of the latest Euro snowmap, for instance... The big amounts stretching back deep into C-PA are driven more by high ratios while the big amounts in the Lehigh Valley into NJ are driven by QPF (likely the better bet to realize widespread big amounts). This is also notable on the RGEM too. Not to say there won't be notably higher ratios late in the storm, but I think it will be narrowed down where the bands set up at that stage of the storm inside of the overall precip shield. If your running a steady light to moderate rate outside of heavier bands, probably going to continue to have 10-12:1 type ratios. Biggest takeaway, patience is definitely required for this event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Wmsptwx said: That low is wayyy more tucked than I thought looking at qpf distribution. If that comes to fruition well inland is still in game for big totals. That’s what I’m boggled by. Euro is smokin bad weed or that is a really nice track and a very nice result. I hope it comes back west at happy hour.....I will have beer n popcorn ready. we r soundin a bit MA threadish in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: How is that any different from normal? I've been spending a lot of time up your way this winter and it's been insane. yeah we see a bunch of the T-2" snow days. I swear it snows every night here (this year) lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, 2001kx said: yeah we see a bunch of the T-2" snow days. I swear it snows every night here (this year) lol. Osceola Mills in particular is like its own snow planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: Osceola Mills in particular is like its own snow planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, 2001kx said: Btw my best bud is from hautzdale. U kno Mitch Yarger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Osceola Mills in particular is like its own snow planet. Houtzdale too, although I guess that's only 5 miles down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That’s what I’m boggled by. Euro is smokin bad weed or that is a really nice track and a very nice result. I hope it comes back west at happy hour.....I will have beer n popcorn ready. we r soundin a bit MA threadish in here. We are allowed only because of last year. This is an exception year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Snow picking up a bit here. here we go maybe ?? edit. Yeah it’s legit now. Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: Snow picking up a bit here. here we go maybe ?? still have 47.6 hours to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: Houtzdale too, although I guess that's only 5 miles down the road. It's been interesting to see the snow this winter in Osceola Mills and Houtzdale but to go down 453 into Tyrone or 53 into Bald Eagle and there's nothing. I mean, I get why, but it's still mind blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: It's been interesting to see the snow this winter in Osceola Mills and Houtzdale but to go down 453 into Tyrone or 53 into Bald Eagle and there's nothing. I mean, I get why, but it's still mind blowing. Why are you fleeing civilization for those parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, canderson said: Why are you fleeing civilization for those parts? Yeah, that's a good question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Btw my best bud is from hautzdale. U kno Mitch Yarger. No i dont know him. I only know a few people there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, 2001kx said: No i dont know him. I only know a few people there. He seems to know EVERYONE up there so thought I’d ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Stole this LOL. I guess we are LSW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 CTP’s afternoon discussion talks about them being leery on double-digit totals in the LSV. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 10AM/15Z: Initial shot of WAA snow (varying intensity) has overspread the majority of the CWA as of 10AM. Only minor adjustments needed to hourly T/Td with maxT still on track. After seeing the 12Z extended HRRR run, we are growing a little leary (somewhat less confident) in double-digit snowfall totals across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. This would be the result of a longer period wintry mix in the dry slot with the main deformation band setting up farther to the north. We will continue to monitor closely. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A long duration winter storm will continue to impact central Pa in the form of lingering, light warm advection snow associated with weakening primary low in the Ohio Valley, then potentially more significant snow across the southeast half of the state associated with a strengthening coastal low Monday. The gradient between deepening coastal low and high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will result in an anomalous easterly flow trained over eastern Pa, supportive of increasing snow rates Monday. Model soundings indicate enough warm air will work in aloft to result in a brief changeover to mixed precipitation Monday roughly south of I-81. Otherwise, model consensus supports a long duration, all snow event, lasting through Monday night over eastern Pa. Latest NBM snow probs and WPC guidance indicate most likely snow totals by early Tuesday ranging from 10-14 inches across the southeast half of the forecast area, to around 6 inches over the northwest mountains. However, uncertainty remains with regard to developing coastal low and placement of heaviest snow. Model fgen fields and latest HREF snow rates currently indicate the heaviest deformation band snow will fall northeast of the forecast area Monday/Monday night. However, conceptual model of a deepening mid level low over the northern Delmarva suggests heavy snow rates are possible across the eastern part of Pa. Thus, can`t rule out some of the upper end ensemble members, which would result in higher than forecast totals across the eastern counties. The other area of uncertainty is over the extreme southeast part of the forecast area, which is on the southern gradient of the heaviest precipitation. The arrival of dry slot could potentially result in significantly lower than forecast snow amounts over this region. 00Z GEFS indicates snow will taper off Monday night from west to east, as surface low and associated easterly low level jet lift into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is all sound analysis and reasoning. I know this is location sensitive, but some of us will lose QPF to sleet and freezing rain as well. Not all of the precip depicted is snow down here. My snow goggles are just not fitting correctly I guess. I should have been more clear in my Euro posts that I was making comments on where the heaviest snows were setting up. But in my specific location Kuchera showed me getting 13" of snow on .8 qpf and I did not buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Snow is really picking up here now. Approaching 1". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Snow is really picking up here now. Approaching 1".Yep, nice flake size too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It's finally restarting here. Radar echoes are about 2 miles south of me so I expect the intensity to ramp up shortly. No additional accumulation since my 1:00 ob which was 0.8". Temp has dropped from the high of the day which was 28.0 degrees, and now is 27.3 degrees. I see NWS has dropped me from 13" to 9". I still think the former is doable. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: It's finally restarting here. Radar echoes are about 2 miles south of me so I expect the intensity to ramp up shortly. No additional accumulation since my 1:00 ob which was 0.8". Temp has dropped from the high of the day which was 28.0 degrees, and now is 27.3 degrees. I see NWS has dropped me from 13" to 9". I still think the former is doable. We'll see. the band im in is sweet nice fat dentrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: the band im in is sweet nice fat dentrites congrats! now send it my way please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: congrats! now send it my way please. its been stubborn. i want to keep it south of me and wait foe the pivot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 snow picking up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Radar out west looks kinda rough. Are the mountains tearing the primary apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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