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Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm


MAG5035
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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Let's stay above the line and not tear up mets. We can end up looking mighty foolish. 

Agreed. Mets (well not the ones in this forum which I value higher than others) all say this isn’t a 2’+ storm for the LSV. We have to be happy with whatever we shovel. 

Let’s hope they are are underplaying and the GFS/Euro are correct!

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Back in 2000 there was a Miller B that was modeled and forecast to give me 24"+ up until 8 hours before gametime. I ended up with partly cloudy skies. It was an incredible bust. It happens even when every model says it won't. 

I remember this well! Was 10 at the time and waited all day to see if the returns got closer and they never made it. 8 to 12 forecast, none measured.

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My earlier comment was really more of an observation rather than personal criticism.  And I'm definitely not one to ruffle feathers.  @Itstrainingtimeyou are totally correct and I have no problems with your reply to me.  After the event is over and we have all the final measurements I would love to ask Tom about his forecast reasoning one way or the other.

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I don't know why we're all so feisty in here tonight.

Here's the thing with some of these crazy amounts coming out of models like the RGEM. If someone in eastern PA sees 40-55" from this storm I'll buy everyone in here a beer lol. To me, nailing down this deform band late in the storm means trying to locate an area that sees perhaps up to two feet or so but likely more of a general 18-24" bullseye area. Other than that, this is within a zone where basically every regular in here including 2001kx and wmsptwx should easily see a warning event and I think this is mostly a 10-14+" swath for everyone under I-80 (and probably above it too eastern third to half of PA). We'll have to watch for the slot and perhaps a slight bit of mixing toward the MD border, but I don't think this kills totals all that much by the end if it happens. We should have snows flung back into PA for a good while even if we don't get the intense deform band in our area.

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23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I don't know why we're all so feisty in here tonight.

Here's the thing with some of these crazy amounts coming out of models like the RGEM. If someone in eastern PA sees 40-55" from this storm I'll buy everyone in here a beer lol. To me, nailing down this deform band late in the storm means trying to locate an area that sees perhaps up to two feet or so but likely more of a general 18-24" bullseye area. Other than that, this is within a zone where basically every regular in here including 2001kx and wmsptwx should easily see a warning event and I think this is mostly a 10-14+" swath for everyone under I-80 (and probably above it too eastern third to half of PA). We'll have to watch for the slot and perhaps a slight bit of mixing toward the MD border, but I don't think this kills totals all that much by the end if it happens. We should have snows flung back into PA for a good while even if we don't get the intense deform band in our area.

Cheers to that! 

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This isn't the kind of system where most here outside of maybe the far eastern people near I-81 should expect the best amounts. The coastal redevelopment will take the best dynamics with it, but there's still a very nice easterly moist feed that will keep the snow going over PA and make for very nice amounts but not blockbuster. The 12/5/03 storm could be one to look at for you guys where there was still a good snow event in PA despite there being a coastal redevelopment like this. 

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