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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

This thread has gone to hell, but the GFS para puts the brakes on the Baltimore snow party.    It still wants to bring some accumulating snow to most of central MD and hits the MD/PA border nicely, but it's not doing what the ops GFS is.    Looking closely, the GFS precip field is wacky with a big max on the Jersey Shore and reduced totals for the NYC metro area-  GFS para looks more reasonable and consistent.

Makes sense. I was not around here in 1978 - but the legendary four-day blizzard that clocked Boston - I think from Kocin/Ucinelli when I reviewed that storm Baltimore area picked up around 8 inches, give or take. I am wondering if that was a scenario where just enough banding from the stall north eeked into the area to give them that reading over a period of days. This feels similar - 4 inches from today (over 15 hours) but if Balt City picked up another 2-4 over the next 48 hours it would look more robust 30 years from now than is in the moment...

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I know I’m grasping here. Incoming weenie question: is there any precedent for a coastal surprise where it actually could drop 6 inches at this point or have we solidified the goods are gone? 10%? 20%? Trying to remember when it’s happened. I know 1997 maybe but that was called late the night before. 

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4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Makes sense. I was not around here in 1978 - but the legendary four-day blizzard that clocked Boston - I think from Kocin/Ucinelli when I reviewed that storm Baltimore area picked up around 8 inches, give or take. I am wondering if that was a scenario where just enough banding from the stall north eeked into the area to give them that reading over a period of days. This feels similar - 4 inches from today (over 15 hours) but if Balt City picked up another 2-4 over the next 48 hours it would look more robust 30 years from now than is in the moment...

I think BWI recorded 8 in 1978 but there was much better results just north of there. Baltimore metro was 12 plus and northern and northeastern suburbs got 14-18.

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3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Makes sense. I was not around here in 1978 - but the legendary four-day blizzard that clocked Boston - I think from Kocin/Ucinelli when I reviewed that storm Baltimore area picked up around 8 inches, give or take. I am wondering if that was a scenario where just enough banding from the stall north eeked into the area to give them that reading over a period of days. This feels similar - 4 inches from today (over 15 hours) but if Balt City picked up another 2-4 over the next 48 hours it would look more robust 30 years from now than is in the moment...

And tbh temps are cold enough to support this sticking around at least on grassy surfaces. We’re not gonna see any torch that the gfs was showing earlier. These tailing, sweeping bands are exactly what I’ve been thinking about in terms of surprises. 

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3 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

I know I’m grasping here. Incoming weenie question: is there any precedent for a coastal surprise where it actually could drop 6 inches at this point or have we solidified the goods are gone? 10%? 20%? Trying to remember when it’s happened. I know 1997 maybe but that was called late the night before. 

Jan 2000. My all time favorite storm because it was clear as day from the radar that it was headed our way. But they were still just hugging the solutions. 

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4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

So now we look to see what moves from south toward us. 

3.5” most consistent 

Even plowed road got recovered. 

Got about the same here in CP.  I honestly did enjoy it. Was done too soon tho.  Good luck to the folks up norther tho.  We'd need like 2 more clicks south and Jesus himself to get the CCB down to us.

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59 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

This has been a painful lesson for most of us.  Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half.  For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2".  Works 95% of the time.  Works for clippers too.

Oh, light frz drizzle and 29.  Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid

I would just post a sticky giving guidance on how to interpret Miller B's at some latitudes. It would save a lot of white noise, silly emotion over snow and over analysis.

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45 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think it was perfectly reasonable to expect a little more out of the WAA. The coastal was always a question because, well, Miller B...lol

3-5 or 4-6 was most prevalent idea so yes I think more was expected. I got 3.5 which is  in range. Not as busted forcesdt at all, just somewhat low.

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at what point does a 10 to 1 ratio go higher? im down to 23 atm. im thinking atm I may be up to a 12 to 1

Snow ratio is dependent on low to mid level boundary layer temps, specifically between 850-600mb where moisture transport occurs in a mid-latitude cyclone. The greater the lift within the aforementioned zone, the better chance for more well defined flakes. Temperatures between -12 to -18C are the prime range for ice crystallization, coupled with lift to generate larger, well defined ice structures called dendrites. They are light in water vapor content, but have large area bases that tend to stack (accumulate) more efficiently.

There’s all kinds of different flake structures depending on temp profiles, lift, and depth of the moisture layer. Today we likely saw a lot of needles in light precip which are very light, small, and take a lot to accumulate over time. Out west, there was a bit more forcing across the higher terrain and along the isentropic ascent created by upscale troughing out west. So even if the snow was light to moderate in nature for hours on end, flake structure was likely fairly decent, allowing to max accumulation despite a lack of prolific rates.


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That dry slot today was just brutal. Can see it on water vapor all day and it barely moved. It’s even more pronounced now. I’m assuming too much separation between systems and just not an ideal trough orientation. I don’t think a lot of forecasters saw this coming esp considering we had a pretty legit air mass in place fully supportive of snow. It is what it is and there’s still February.

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