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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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27 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So I have to ask when the weather service calls for heavy snow is it the size of the flakes? or is it the rate in which it falls? or can it be both?

Intensity is typically tied to visibility, with heavy snow being visibility of less than a quarter mile.  I think of heavy snow as about 1 inch per hour.  Not necessarily flake size as sometimes you can have large wet flakes but spaced way apart.

Get this -- NYC could see rates of 2-4 inches at times.  Man to see that.

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36 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest trends look promising for Baltimore on north especially...for a few inches through Tues 

Guidance is coming in more tucked and south with the coastal low 

Forcing is going north...where the closed upper level tracks...north of it is where the forcing occurs 

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For just barely northeast of Baltimore City my expectations from this storm from a few days ago werr 2-5 inches from Sunday. Got 3.5, so good to go there. 

I did say 3-7 for the coastal impact. Feel like I might be able to scrape the low end of that range, but confidence is low. Some model guidance is keeping the hope alive. 

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3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Intensity is typically tied to visibility, with heavy snow being visibility of less than a quarter mile.  I think of heavy snow as about 1 inch per hour.  Not necessarily flake size as sometimes you can have large wet flakes but spaced way apart.

Get this -- NYC could see rates of 2-4 inches at times.  Man to see that.

Oh thanks 

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5 minutes ago, Ruin said:

im surprised the precip field isnt farther northwest since its getting tucked in more.

This is exactly how I feel. Without any further trending of the low, simply with a more robust precip shield we could see something halfway decent tomorrow. 
 

The models just don’t have a handle on this at all. Should be very interesting. 

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3 hours ago, feloniousq said:

How about the model run last night that had both you and me with 9.5”, 6” coming from the WAA? 
 

Any time a WSW fails to verify, it’s a bust, period

Below is last nights 0z EURO you reference valid up until 0z tonight. It absolutely nailed my area so I don’t know what you’re referring to. 
Also, you originally posted a EURO from 6! days ago. Why you’re moving the goalposts from 6 days ago to last nights run is interesting. You’re still wrong but I’ll leave you to learn why. 
8683C757-F1B3-4B68-8EF8-D8474E57E764.png.dc941cddea7ac177e375dbaa95a2480a.png

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This thread has gone to hell, but the GFS para puts the brakes on the Baltimore snow party.    It still wants to bring some accumulating snow to most of central MD and hits the MD/PA border nicely, but it's not doing what the ops GFS is.    Looking closely, the GFS precip field is wacky with a big max on the Jersey Shore and reduced totals for the NYC metro area-  GFS para looks more reasonable and consistent.

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Seriously guys. Stop.  I know how it is when tempers flare...I just had a fight with a troll white knighter 2 nights ago...I moved it to banter.  But I'm the laziest moderator here and yall are making me mad because I have to moderate.  I'm moving the crap posts to banter.  STOP.  NOW.  Seriously.  I'll even add a please in there.   If you want to fight, ok...go to banter.   People in here trying to enjoy the Miller B screwjob and yall in here fighting.

Relax, calm down.  Also, gotta remind yall,  sending threatening PMs is prohibited.    If you want to be around for the next fail next weekend, simmah down. 

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