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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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Just now, Ruin said:

hmmm just took a look at current and future radar and the future radar isnt showing anything like the models are showing for tomorrow :( Myabe it hasnt been updated yet?

idk what "future radar" you're using, but there's a 99% chance it's total crap. Most apps/sites that use "future radar" are HORRIBLE. 

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29 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

They are easy to pin down... they suck for this area 95% of the time but we choose to accept guidance that produces a pipe dream just like the one poker hand that works out of 100 that keeps us coming back for more. 

Okay, guess we’ll see. Of course you have no defined limits of what I’m hoping for and vs what a pipe dream is, so you’d never admit your own error. Pointless to even try to discuss. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

 

idk what "future radar" you're using, but there's a 99% chance it's total crap. Most apps/sites that use "future radar" are HORRIBLE. 

accuweather and intilicast. Yeah i wasnt sure how good or bad those radars are when they do future radar's

 

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34 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

In fairness, NONE of the models have verified, so perhaps the best strategy is to simply trust the climo and play the percentages based on that.

Try that here and you'll get banned.

Although it's historically the best approach to forecasting. 95% experience and probabilities, 5% guidance

Never made it over 3 inches here anyway.

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12 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

globals were pretty bad; mesos were pretty good.  according to gfs, we should be pouring rain right now and approaching 40 degrees.  what a terrible model.

Yeah not for one moment did I think we’d touch 40. Didn’t even think we’d rain. I might be right in the end we’ll see. 

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Just now, haudidoody said:

Try that here and you'll get banned.

Although it's historically the best approach to forecasting. 95% historical experience and probabilities, 5% guidance

Thats true I heard old timers say that in weather all the time. but the new crop of meteorologists will use %90 of models and they live and die by it. If a model shows ots they hug it. if a model shows up the coast oh its to early to know if it still goes ots. if a model calls for 1-3 they hug it if a model shows 12-18 inchs they are like hold your horses.

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Just now, Ruin said:

accuweather and intilicast. Yeah i wasnt sure how good or bad those radars are when they do future radar's

 

Problem is there's no such thing as future radar. That's a model that takes its initial state and runs out some amount of time. Maybe some "future radars" pull their data from actual weather models, but many do NOT. In either case, if you want to use a model, use a real model. Many sites have simulated radar for NAM and other hi-res products. 

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