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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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I couldn’t get the 6-10 inches generated by NWP for days if you hooked a fire hose up to Ocean City, sucked into the trowal and folded over the trop eight times and aimed it at my house. Remember the RGEM, euro, cmc, ukmet for the trash they put out next time. I won’t invest in another storm in this area until I see the whites of its eyes! 

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7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Everyone enjoying the used to be king euro? Next time you call it “king” remember this solution! It’s no better than any other model. Been bad since summer! 

BA7201DC-A783-40F9-A80B-0F3065CFC9E7.jpeg

Haaa. I'm honestly surprised people are still looking at models though even still for the next few hours. 18 hours ago, King Euro said I'd have 9" from this event. I'm sitting somewhere around 2 right now and highly doubting I pick up another 7.

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6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Not gonna boast but I want it noted that I stuck with my gut that there would be surprises tonight. Not exactly the contrarian call of the century but I’m telling you these Miller Bs are almost impossible to pin down. 

They are easy to pin down... they suck for this area 95% of the time but we choose to accept guidance that produces a pipe dream just like the one poker hand that works out of 100 that keeps us coming back for more. 

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4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I couldn’t get the 6-10 inches generated by NWP for days if you hooked a fire hose up to Ocean City, sucked into the trowal and folded over the trop eight times and aimed it at my house. Remember the RGEM, euro, cmc, ukmet for the trash they put out next time. I won’t invest in another storm in this area until I see the whites of its eyes! 

some people here will not like this one bit

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Not that it is fun but we should do a post "storm" analysis on this. From suppression to 40 inches of digital snow and then the miss to the north when people and models were saying the block would keep it south.. This sucked. 

I don't want to get fooled again. 

I get Miller Bs screw us, but dang it man! 

 

 

 

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Not that it is fun but we should do a post "storm" analysis on this. From suppression to 40 inches of digital snow and then the miss to the north when people and models were saying the block would keep it south.. This sucked. 
I don't want to get fooled again. 
I get Miller Bs screw us, but dang it man! 
 
 
 
How much snow did you get bro?
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Just now, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:
Not that it is fun but we should do a post "storm" analysis on this. From suppression to 40 inches of digital snow and then the miss to the north when people and models were saying the block would keep it south.. This sucked. 
I don't want to get fooled again. 
I get Miller Bs screw us, but dang it man! 
 
 
 

How much snow did you get bro?

Just under 3 inches. I mean, I liked it, love snow always, but I love it most when it is falling heavy and visibility is down. 

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7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

They are guidance and we bought into it for days. 

You’re the met so this comes with a great deal of respect but that was four days ago and showed that kind of historic snow for 2 runs. And I think one of them was 18z. The GFS wasn’t close the other way for run after run for days. Euro at least corrected quickly, and has been very consistent since. 

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This has been a painful lesson for most of us.  Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half.  For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2".  Works 95% of the time.  Works for clippers too.

Oh, light frz drizzle and 29.  Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid

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3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

This has been a painful lesson for most of us.  Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half.  For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2".  Works 95% of the time.  Works for clippers too.

Oh, light frz drizzle and 29.  Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid

Don't forget Texas.

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3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So I have to ask when the weather service calls for heavy snow is it the size of the flakes? or is it the rate in which it falls? or can it be both?

I think of it more like liquid equivalent. Heavy snow=more QPF. Flake size is related to a lot of things like temperature and lift and tends to be good in heavy snow, but it's just a different thing. than heavy/light IMO

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36 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Everyone enjoying the used to be king euro? Next time you call it “king” remember this solution! It’s no better than any other model. Been bad since summer! 

BA7201DC-A783-40F9-A80B-0F3065CFC9E7.jpeg

You are dumping on a data simulation of snowfall amounts 156h in the future?

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Just now, SnowDreamer said:

I think of it more like liquid equivalent. Heavy snow=more QPF. Flake size is related to a lot of things like temperature and lift and tends to be good in heavy snow, but it's just a different thing. than heavy/light IMO

ah ok ty

 

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