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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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Just now, WEATHER53 said:

It’s not that DC climo sucks it’s that Miller Bs don’t do well here.

50% miss us completely, 30% deliver light to near moderate, 20% moderate to heavy 

The portrayal of the coastal has been all over the place And we still dont know what it’s going to do 

 

That’s called our climo, Miller B Climo. 

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3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s not that DC climo sucks it’s that Miller Bs don’t do well here.

50% miss us completely, 30% deliver light to near moderate, 20% moderate to heavy 

The portrayal of the coastal has been all over the place And we still dont know what it’s going to do 

 

Developing off NC as we speak. Solid start. The key is what does it do from there and how quickly does it get its act together. 

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Seeing a few mets saying NWS and others are getting too jumpy with their changes in forecasts. Miller b’s do come with one thing - the element of surprise. There’s 0 way to know or model where this CCB sets up or how quickly the coastal gets going. We’re going to have to be patient. Still Have a good feeling about the area from I-70 north and north east come tomorrow. 

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4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

I find it hilarious that models are STILL, like 18 hours away, whiffing on how much snow we will get.

Are Miller Bs that bad for us and they mess with models that hard?

Miller Bs are just complicated. Climatologically, they’re not the MOST successful for DC, but that’s neither here nor there. IMO Miller Bs have too many points of variance to be modeled as accurately as something like a clipper or a Miller A. (Although those do bust sometimes) 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm def busting your chops but only because it's going down the bad way. I read a fraction of the analysis posts last week but on Tues I was surprised how different you and I were thinkng when I tuned in to lurk. I kept looking at the setup and thinking congrats pa/nj/nyc and consoling my yard's feelings. I remember looking at a euro run (dont remember what day) and there was literally no snow in the areas I figured the jackpot was headed for. It intrigued me very much but at the same time I was still pretty sure that the crush zone would gravitate to where it always does. 

Your analysis is always sound and solid like 100% of the time. I just didnt believe for a second that NMD/PA/NJ were going to get fringed. Opposing forces always seem to let up in the short range. I was really hoping we'd get to the short range with CPA still north of the super heavies that pump eastward off the ocean NW of the low center. The second the drift towards that idea started I dropped the idea of 12+ for my yard and set the win bar at 6" (ignoring my mental hard drove of memories). 6" is a solid # for any nina hybrid in DC metro. Especially when the multi year struggle is real. It just another example of how climo is often more powerful than NWP supercomputers

It’s funny you say this, I actually felt very similar 4-5 days ago. You articulate one of my concerns very well — which was the typical Jackpot spots were underperforming and that the variance between model runs wasn’t waffling in a way that screamed dc-nova-md banding. I personally thought the manner in which the transfer happens and the low positioned itself seemed to lend itself to later (hence more NW) development and the ccb would be to our NW/NE. 

However, it’s touch and go around these parts now. If you naysay snow too much around here you get axed. Is what it is. But I like the ridge building my out west through the period and recycling of some of our blocking to the north. Our cold source is much better than 4-6 weeks ago. I say we definitely see some good model runs coming in the intermediate, perhaps

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