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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Maybe I’m being pessimistic but I just don’t see that late wrap around stuff working out. If we don’t get it tomorrow afternoon/evening I just think that’s all she wrote 

It’s more of an inverted trough feature. The true CCB tomorrow doesn’t do much for us. Maybe another inch or two. IVTs can put down some snow but they are notoriously hard to predict far in advance.

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Maybe I’m being pessimistic but I just don’t see that late wrap around stuff working out. If we don’t get it tomorrow afternoon/evening I just think that’s all she wrote 

CMC has it too but just over Philly. It’s a real feature imo but placement will vary 

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Not as pessimistic as some here after looking at 12z guidance and current analysis. The GEM and GFS both show quite a strong curved trajectory towards ACY for the coastal and still hint at a stall if not a loop. While this would obviously jackpot e PA, last time I looked there are no states between PA and MD and that jackpot is only 30-50 miles into PA so would expect at least the northern tier of MD counties to approach 20" snowfalls -- the higher this jackpot goes, the better MD does, there would be no physical rule to say that the more snow falls in PA then less would fall in MD. Also the dynamics of this are quite unusual, especially if the CMC is right and they do after all have as good a set of the data input over the current complex upper pattern as any rival model would have. 

Looking at 12z analysis, the low in the Midwest is not stacked but has an unusual C-shaped vertical profile from 500 mb in nw IN to surface in se IN (at that time) with 700 and 850 back in IL. That will distort over 24h into the coastal setup and the hook will then be rotated about 90 deg (counter-clockwise) anchored by a 500 mb low over VA, to a surface low bombing east of Delaware. I think with these unusual dynamics there could be more wrap around effect than you might expect with a more standard Miller B. 

As to bust calls at this early stage, most of the potential of this storm is Monday-Tuesday, I would not write it off anywhere in the mid-Atlantic and especially not in ne MD or n DE. It could be a 60h storm with an interruption later today, so even if 40 of those hours only produced 0.2" inch snowfalls that's still 8.0" and some of these hours tomorrow into Tuesday will produce considerably more, would expect at least moderate snow in some of the bands extending into MD (S+ obviously possible and will be widely reported in PA and NJ, NYC). 

Another consideration is that if a lot of very mild air dams up against a wall of cold south of Long Island while the low is stalling or looping, then some of that will be entrained west across NJ and PA and around the circulation which may create a warm seclusion, which is probably that feature on some models that rotates back across MD in latter stages of the storm.

Anyway, bottom line is this will turn into an intense coastal almost without a direct parallel and do its own thing with memorable results, and you have a front row seat, enjoy. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

It’s more of an inverted trough feature. The true CCB tomorrow doesn’t do much for us. Maybe another inch or two. IVTs can put down some snow but they are notoriously hard to predict far in advance.

Yeah the panel I posted captures the parting shot. There is obviously more just to the north/northeast with the main CCB.

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Maybe I’m being pessimistic but I just don’t see that late wrap around stuff working out. If we don’t get it tomorrow afternoon/evening I just think that’s all she wrote 

It’s actually quite possible this pans out. You’re being pessimistic, and rightfully so. But this solution has plenty of support 

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Maybe I’m being pessimistic but I just don’t see that late wrap around stuff working out. If we don’t get it tomorrow afternoon/evening I just think that’s all she wrote 

Agreed, that does not look like a feature that is predictable 2 days out..   No reason to close everything Monday and Tuesday just for that. 

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

You know this but wrap-around snows (easy RR!) are hard to pin down but when they develop, they can drop a lot of snow in a hurry.

Yep. And the forecasted placement of this coastal low is REAL close to where we need it to be for this CCB to become a reality. I understand people’s pessimism, but we are 90% of the way there to having this verify. We just need a few things to happen. Keep positive all!

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

It’s Sunday. The coastal forms and explodes tomorrow into early Tuesday morning. The radar we see now has zero to do with the way the radar will look tomorrow.  

Tomorrow was never the day for the dc folks.  That will be north.  We will see what happens through the day and tonight but it seems to me the main WAA piece went through Fredericksburg and down to Richmond.  

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro kinda just took a dump on my area. Saw it coming. Was shifting the deform band a little northeast every run and finally pretty much took it away completely.  Does swing that band through Tuesday but on the EDGE so even a 10 mile adjustment east with that and the coastal is pretty much a total bust even up here. Oh well it happens.  Still close...if it corrects back 30 miles suddenly It’s on again but these last minute miller b trends don’t seem to reverse that often. 

Remember when you were worried about suppression a few days ago?

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1.5" here in Crofton, north-central AA County, as of 1 pm. 

Lots of pixie dust snow today. I see the stronger echoes approaching from the south, but how much of that will be additional accumulating snow before the mix?

I was thinking about the Miller B type storms around here. I did a study about the Miller type storm classification, with a reanalysis of several systems since 2008. Every one is different, even if a little, as we know. Most are not handled very well by NWP,  at least in terms of trying to get it consensus at T-36 or 48 hours. We know that as well. Most are scree jobs for us, another known fact.

But I then started to think, what was is about all those Miller Bs in 2013-14 and 2014-15 that did reasonably well for us here along 95 into the eastern burbs? What was different?

Antecedent Arctic air, *that's* what's missing. When you have that colder dome going in, WAA is much more effective (greater slope of the theta surfaces, i.e. better rise/run), as your dendritic growth zone layer (-12 to -18C temps) is lower in the troposphere. Better chances of getting moisture and lift in the DGZ when you have a colder airmass in place. Heck, I vividly recal a system that gave us 4-6" region-wide with the surface high moving out to sea off the Mid-Atlantic coast! Straight, deep layer southerly flow, but the fact that the antecedent airmass was arctic cold to begin with gave us a ton of WAA snow potential before dry slotting or any mixing. 

While not like the Snowquester March 6, 2013 disaster, which had neither the antecedent cold air nor decent deep layer lift over our region (given the timing and location of the low transfer to the coast), at least right now, this to me feels like another in a long line of under-achieving Miller Bs for the majority of our area. 

Which I guess would come as no surprise. But the fact that the NWP still struggles with the details here in the 3rd decade of the 21st century, maybe that's what most disillusions me. 

 

 

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