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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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Just now, osfan24 said:

I never understand why people outright dismiss the NAM. You can be skeptical of it, but all guidance should at least be considered and analyzed, not just tossed. Even the ICON. Maybe.

 

Its been awesome. But its ultimate test will be when it tries to show snow over us when nothing else is. Let's see if it leads the way then....

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I never understand why people outright dismiss the NAM. You can be skeptical of it, but all guidance should at least be considered and analyzed, not just tossed. Even the ICON. Maybe.

 

Yup. @ers-wxman1 talks about this all the time. NAM can be the first to sniff out a short term trend, but gets dismissed.

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Will never laugh at the NAM again. This will be 2 storms this winter where it won. Dryslot is coming. And it was the first model to sniff it out.

The Nam does over do qpf totals so the joking about a "namming" is fairly legit but it is extremely useful for trend based forecasting.  With that said it was by itself this time so could not buy into it fully even if it ends up being the best forecast.  It dismays me to see Red Taggers cast it off or start sentences with "Good thing its not going to be right because its the Nam..."

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water vapor shows that slither of drier air pretty well, but it's been slowly filling in. that might coincide with better radar returns as we get through midday. nothing really surprising about this storm so far. it was always a bit north for central md, but it's also reasonable to think the ccb could nudge further southwest.  there's certainly time for that if the coastal forms further south or deepens quicker than expected.

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