Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, jayyy said:

Don’t worry guys - all we need is the coastal to pop way further south than progged, bomb out, and for all models to be wrong. What could possibly go wrong? ;)

If you really think about it and be honest with yourself, this event has evolved (or devolved) in a very typical and common fashion. I for one am the opposite of surprised. Once guidance centered the jack up in NJ/PA it fit the mold perfectly. This is an overplayed re-run and exaclty why I was "hoping" I would at least crack 6" if things take a turn. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bob Chill said:

If you really think about it and be honest with yourself, this event has evolved (or devolved) in a very typical and common fashion. I for one am the opposite of surprised. Once guidance centered the jack up in NJ/PA it fit the mold perfectly. This is an overplayed re-run and exaclty why I was "hoping" I would at least crack 6" if things take a turn. 

I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, jayyy said:

I’m sure someone with more knowledge can easily explain how both parts can end up screwing us  

I just don't get how the coastal low is going to develop so far south and we totally whiff. It's in a good spot for us to get crushed and similar to previous storms that crushed us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Kmlwx said:

I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. 

Mechanics of a NS transfer are often hostile here for climo reasons and it's hard to beat that. The handoff kills the waa and if the handoff/re-development pushes the max north of us it's something my yard rarely recovers from. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, osfan24 said:

I just don't get how the coastal low is going to develop so far south and we totally whiff. It's in a good spot for us to get crushed and similar to previous storms that crushed us.

Off the DE/MD border coastline isn't going to do it for us. Would like it a decent bit south and east of there with the tuck. I glanced at a bunch of the models earlier and they seem to be focused in that area. Down off Norfolk or even a little north of there would be much better IMO. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Kmlwx said:

I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. 

The Rgem seems kinda like the ukie to me.  More often than not if its out on a limb it doesn’t lead the way.  BTW I think the para has had the NYC jackpot for a while now, if that does indeed happen it’ll be a good performance for it IMO. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I don't think the RGEM is a "terrible" model - but when it was the only one showing the banding arcing all the way back for the DC-Balt corridor I knew it was probably going to cave. That's when I tempered my expectations and buckled in for the WAA. 

I always thought the RGEM's biggest issue was it had a cold bias.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I just don't get how the coastal low is going to develop so far south and we totally whiff. It's in a good spot for us to get crushed and similar to previous storms that crushed us.

More goes into play here than surface low location. We need h5/h7 to have proper passage, and we need the trough to have a correct tilt. Without these things, there’s no precip shield building on the W flank of the storm. Everything gets firehosed to the NW of the storm into NJ and NYC. We’re caught between 2 storms. Again. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mappy said:

i highly suggest you stop fretting about radar and models and enjoy whats falling. so much better that way. 

I have been outside all morning with my 2 year old daughter fully enjoying it. But it doesn’t change how I only have 3” and it’s the lightest pixie dust in history with a dry a lot approaching. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

I have been outside all morning with my 2 year old daughter fully enjoying it. But it doesn’t change how I only have 3” and it’s the lightest pixie dust in history with a dry a lot approaching. 

okie dokie. you do you friend. enjoy what falls. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

I have been outside all morning with my 2 year old daughter fully enjoying it. But it doesn’t change how I only have 3” and it’s the lightest pixie dust in history with a dry a lot approaching. 

I like your creative way of not actually saying the bad word ;)

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, understudyhero said:

I have a real question.

If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models?

Because the closer in, the better they get. And this is a Miller B that typically always develops too far N for us. I’m thinking tomorrow will be a complete bust but I’m gonna try to enjoy what we get today. Even though the 3K NAM struggles to get me to even 3” before the mix 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, understudyhero said:

I have a real question.

If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models?

You must be new here hahahaha.  
 

Btw FATTIES in Takoma park outta nowhere.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

More goes into play here than surface low location. We need h5/h7 to have proper passage, and we need the trough to have a correct tilt. Without these things, there’s no precip shield building on the W flank of the storm. Everything gets firehosed to the NW of the storm into NJ and NYC. We’re caught between 2 storms. Again. 

One thing that always bothered me about this one was the trough orientation. It always seemed slightly positive to neutral and our big ones show the trough negative.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, understudyhero said:

I have a real question.

If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models?

There wasn't a "wild swing" with the WAA (part 1) of the storm. The shifts have been with the transfer to the coast and the Monday/Tuesday part of the event. The low location and the upper level stuff has adjusted just a touch to be unfavorable for us. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, understudyhero said:

I have a real question.

If everything either had a wild swing leading up to this exact moment or totally overplayed it, why do you have confidence that Monday into Tuesday is a complete loss based on the same models?

Unfortunately yes because much uncertainty from coastal re-development process has been removed now. Surprises are possible always but 100 mile surprises are a bit much at this point if you ask me. I'll gladly take a surprise but so for this is going down like a long list of similar storms. Thankfully not as bad as a cluster of storms that have scarred even the most hardened weenie

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...