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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The 06z RGEM begins to hint at explosive development off the coast by late Monday, looks like bad news for LI and se MA snow potential but possibly returning a stronger potential for MD-DC-VA as a lot of Atlantic moisture is going to be forced aloft and uppers are still marginally favorable (more than a few miles from the shore at least). Some place in PA will probably top four feet at this rate. If that's not too far from the PA-MD line then some place in MD could top three feet. This could get very interesting. 

I’ll bet nobody in Maryland gets a foot much less 2 or 3. Do you ever post realistic expectations?

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10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The 06z RGEM begins to hint at explosive development off the coast by late Monday, looks like bad news for LI and se MA snow potential but possibly returning a stronger potential for MD-DC-VA as a lot of Atlantic moisture is going to be forced aloft and uppers are still marginally favorable (more than a few miles from the shore at least). Some place in PA will probably top four feet at this rate. If that's not too far from the PA-MD line then some place in MD could top three feet. This could get very interesting. 

Justin Berk?

Starting to see some flurries. Waiting on my 2 feet lol

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hugging the Euro and 6z ICON for the coastal. Both get some nice banding here. Mount Holly seems less enthused about the potential lol.

The pretty maps.

1612342800-Sbf3LRjVcQY.png

1612321200-Uj3iuqBIvSg.png

One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow :) 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow :) 

Thanks @MillvilleWx and everyone for the awesome analysis! Much appreciated!

Light Snow and 28 NW of Fredericksburg 

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11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow :) 

On the Euro when 850mb low moves a bit SE off the SNJ coast it gets into a pretty decent spot. This is what I have been watching. Cant see the upper levels on the Icon, but I have a feeling it looks similar.

GFS has the action further east/southeast during this timeframe.

1612299600-n2uYP44xPZE.png

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Euro_Trailing_Vort.thumb.PNG.3ab6fe3f69e33cb5bd4e519595bb2db6.PNG

This trailing piece is definitely something everyone from Carroll to the DE will want to watch out for. It's a nice low-level vort to provide modest ascent with a saturated boundary layer This trailer could easily drop 2-3" of fresh powder prior to the storm shutting off. It's been on quite a few models the last 36 hrs, so it has merit. Might not be solved until close to end game though, so patience will be a virtue. Hope you cash with 5-8" over there!

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

On the Euro when 850mb low moves a bit SE off the SNJ coast it gets into a pretty decent spot. This is what I have been watching. Cant see the upper levels on the Icon, but I have a feeling it looks similar.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Euro_Trailing_Vort.thumb.PNG.3ab6fe3f69e33cb5bd4e519595bb2db6.PNG

This trailing piece is definitely something everyone from Carroll to the DE will want to watch out for. It's a nice low-level vort to provide modest ascent with a saturated boundary layer This trailer could easily drop 2-3" of fresh powder prior to the storm shutting off. It's been on quite a few models the last 36 hrs, so it has merit. Might not be solved until close to end game though, so patience will be a virtue. Hope you cash with 5-8" over there!

 

The other thing that is interesting on the GFS is this panel as the deform band is just beginning to develop nw of the low. Has some heavy precip and 850s and surface are cooling at the same time. This is 'recorded' as rain (here) verbatim on the model, but maybe it ends up rain flipping to snow as temps are starting to crash during this window. GFS is also warmer than other guidance. ICON has it too and it thinks it's snow here.

1612202400-JHjsEt6CPK8.png

 

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5 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Very unimpressive so far. 30 in wheaton with light snow. Dusting on the grass. Street just wet. Without any rates this will be an all day couple of inches deal. The WAA snow didn’t start early nor come in like a wall. Not good signs. 

It’s 6:30 am.  Best stuff today was always between 10-4pm.

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8 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Very unimpressive so far. 30 in wheaton with light snow. Dusting on the grass. Street just wet. Without any rates this will be an all day couple of inches deal. The WAA snow didn’t start early nor come in like a wall. Not good signs. 

Nothing was ever supposed to come in like a wall either lol 

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