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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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Just now, mappy said:

At this point the NW crew really has nothing to fret over. Short of waa being drier and the coastal shitting the bed at last minute, we will do well up here. :snowing:

You ,  losetoa6  and PSU seem to be in a great spot .

Im the same Latitude as you all but a bit further west.  I might miss the best stuff just to my east.

Time will tell.

Just looking forward to sledding with my kidos  tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

FWIW, DT has a long Facebook post talking about the storm and hyped up the accuracy of the RGEM and said he is worried he could be well underdone in his forecasted totals for Central Maryland and would not take much of an adjustment to see 18-24 inch totals there.

The long duration is very interesting as well. 

Here is a small section about what DT was talking about from his update 1 hour ago.

 <

I continue to be very concerned about heavy snow greater than a foot in the Washington DC and Baltimore Metro areas. The high resolution n short-range and very good Canadian model known as the RGEM as well as other models continue to show 12 to to as much as 30 inches of snow in South Central AND Southeastern Pennsylvania as well as much of New Jersey AND into North Central Maryland very close to Washington and Baltimore. It is quite possible that Hagerstown and Frederick as well as Columbia Sykesville and housing could end up with 8 inches or more of snow when compared to Baltimore or Washington DC.

With that much snow … being that close to these important Metro areas I am very nervous about any forecasts which has snow amounts under 10 in. It would not take much of an adjustment to drop 18 or 24 inches of snow area into these Metro regions as well as Martinsburg Leesburg and Winchester.

More later

>

    

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

God I hate bringing up this storm but there was a time not long ago where the euro amd everything else lined up a great hit but in real time the upper low wobbled SE and slp ended up tucked and more than a little south of prog'd. This storm's result was a heartbreaker but we're talking a real time shift at hour 0 that the euro missed. It's a perpetual cycle of worry parsing it. A trend of getting the waa totals slashed AND losing the ccb piece to the north is worth worrying about tho. I'm not seeing it yet anywhere

12/5-6/03 is an example discussed in these threads the past couple of days of a good WAA surge, then drizzle/mix all day while waiting and waiting for the CCB. The radar progression actually strikingly matches what a couple of models have been showing:

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03-RegionalRadarImagery.html

I was driving home from DC to Potomac after a night out clubbing and ran into snow covered roads near home around 2 am. That band through predawn dropped another 3.5” after the 4” from the WAA. It wasn’t as much as forecast but still ended up being a decent storm around here. At least DC proper will be colder than that event for the WAA phase.

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Just now, Chris78 said:

You ,  losetoa6  and PSU seem to be in a great spot .

Im the same Latitude as you all but a bit further west.  I might miss the best stuff just to my east.

Time will tell.

Just looking forward to sledding with my kidos  tomorrow.

Highstakes too. Enjoy what you get! :sled:

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Has this been mentioned? ... the 1922 Knickerbocker storm looks very similar on historical weather maps at closest approach to DC, although it was entirely coastal in origin ... upper panels on wetterzentrale are obviously back-cast but look rather similar also. Timing (Jan 28-29) and the sort of otherwise bland winter season are also similar. Just a factoid among many. 

One other detail that caught my eye in assessing model scenarios is that offshore the warmer Gulf stream water has pooled out around 70W with a fairly cool coastal layer, there's no instant torching of lower levels available from contact with these relatively cold seas. This is why I tend towards accepting the RGEM solution, if I saw a sharper gradient out around the Texas Tower then perhaps more of a Long Ilsland bomb outcome. 

The 24 hours of east winds will probably advect some warmer surface layers briefly but that may just assist in the loop process and strand a cutoff secondary near the coast. 

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The winds inland will be strong,  added to the heavier snow periods and it will look awesome outside !  

 

Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- 336 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 13 to 18 ft expected. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm. * WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 10 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

 

ecmwfued---usne_ll-60-C-850hgtwind_2021013012_whitecounty.png

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

The long duration is very interesting as well. 

Here is a small section about what DT was talking about from his update 1 hour ago.

 <

I continue to be very concerned about heavy snow greater than a foot in the Washington DC and Baltimore Metro areas. The high resolution n short-range and very good Canadian model known as the RGEM as well as other models continue to show 12 to to as much as 30 inches of snow in South Central AND Southeastern Pennsylvania as well as much of New Jersey AND into North Central Maryland very close to Washington and Baltimore. It is quite possible that Hagerstown and Frederick as well as Columbia Sykesville and housing could end up with 8 inches or more of snow when compared to Baltimore or Washington DC.

With that much snow … being that close to these important Metro areas I am very nervous about any forecasts which has snow amounts under 10 in. It would not take much of an adjustment to drop 18 or 24 inches of snow area into these Metro regions as well as Martinsburg Leesburg and Winchester.

More later

>

    

1996?

 

J/K...27 degrees.here.  

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30 minutes ago, Amped said:

RGEM tucks all the way down almost to Norfolk.  It is not close to doing that.

Ehh it’s not that radical. The capture happens around 13z on both the euro and rgem. From that point on the low loops around for about 12 hours gaining very little latitude then extends and splits off a northern extension while the southern fujiwaras back south again.  That happens off Wallope Island on the rgem and off Ocean City on the euro. Not that big a difference. But when your right on the southern edge...that little bit matters!  But the bigger issue is the better moisture transport on the rgem. If you put that from the rgem onto the euro it would still be better. Not quite as good as the rgem but probably could add on another 3-6” in DC. 


capture moment on both models 

Euro 

0F4F01D4-BA3F-4617-B5AE-37954CB45486.thumb.png.70b2fdc20ef023d079ad5950ee8c4003.png

RGEM

2B52E0ED-37E4-4A9D-A681-DA6FC5CC26BE.thumb.png.7568ae49075af55738945b619f320de0.png

 

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6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Has this been mentioned? ... the 1922 Knickerbocker storm looks very similar on historical weather maps at closest approach to DC, although it was entirely coastal in origin ... upper panels on wetterzentrale are obviously back-cast but look rather similar also. Timing (Jan 28-29) and the sort of otherwise bland winter season are also similar. Just a factoid among many. 

One other detail that caught my eye in assessing model scenarios is that offshore the warmer Gulf stream water has pooled out around 70W with a fairly cool coastal layer, there's no instant torching of lower levels available from contact with these relatively cold seas. This is why I tend towards accepting the RGEM solution, if I saw a sharper gradient out around the Texas Tower then perhaps more of a Long Ilsland bomb outcome. 

The 24 hours of east winds will probably advect some warmer surface layers briefly but that may just assist in the loop process and strand a cutoff secondary near the coast. 

The only line that matters here... “entirely coastal in origin.” This isn’t. 
 

 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ehh it’s not that radical. The capture happens around 13z on both the euro and rgem. From that point on the low loops around for about 12 hours gaining very little latitude then extends and splits off a northern extension while the southern fujiwaras back south again.  That happens off Wallope Island on the rgem and off Ocean City on the euro. Not that big a difference. But when your right on the southern edge...that little bit matters!  But the bigger issue is the better moisture transport on the rgem. If you put that from the rgem onto the euro it would still be better. Not quite as good as the rgem but probably could add on another 3-6” in DC. 


capture moment on both models 

Euro 

0F4F01D4-BA3F-4617-B5AE-37954CB45486.thumb.png.70b2fdc20ef023d079ad5950ee8c4003.png

RGEM

2B52E0ED-37E4-4A9D-A681-DA6FC5CC26BE.thumb.png.7568ae49075af55738945b619f320de0.png

 

It is quite remarkable how different an outcome those two models are showing for our area given how similar those two panels look.  If I didn’t know anything else and you showed me those two I would assume the snow amounts were pretty close between the two. 

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