psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Jumps off OBX at 33, Nasty dry slot. DC gets almost 7 inches from the waa this run. Really nice. Let’s see what happens the fgen boundary that’s going to become the deform is much further south this run then 12z at the same time in western PA and WV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: NAM other than 06z is ever so slightly ticking colder and it stays snow longer and longer. Hoping its wrong about the flip to sleet down in Central VA. Doesn't show up in other guidance. eh, that's kind of a lie. It does. I just hope its wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Decent amount of folks concerned about sleet/mixing. I'd think some sleet or mixing is possible for many areas outside of the favored all-snow locations. Don't the bigger storms always tend to mix? We've discussed this extensively in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King George Dee Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 38 in King George. Man hoping for some snow. Been Sooo long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW21 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 32/10 in Edinburg, Va. Actually feels warm out after the last couple days of blustery winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM is blasting the dry slot way further NW then any other guidance. Let’s hope that’s just a NAM mirage. Everything else about this run is better. And it’s slightly better with the dryslot but it’s still ugly and will make it hard to really ramp up the deform once the dry air has blasted that far north. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Decent amount of folks concerned about sleet/mixing. I'd think some sleet or mixing is possible for many areas outside of the favored all-snow locations. Don't the bigger storms always tend to mix? We've discussed this extensively in the past. Yeah, I believe psuhoffman was vocal about that tradeoff in the last thread. If you want to avoid any chance of mix whatsoever, get ready for a colder, dry storm. That's not an unreasonable trade to make, but it won't give you the 20" HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Man that is an ugly dryslot, but it's better than seeing 35 degree rain melting all the snow for 12 hours straight. 12k NAM is 12km of dryness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, dukeblue219 said: Yeah, I believe psuhoffman was vocal about that tradeoff in the last thread. If you want to avoid any chance of mix whatsoever, get ready for a colder, dry storm. That's not an unreasonable trade to make, but it won't give you the 20" HECS I dunno if the original complaint was directed at me, but down here in Charlottesville I just don't want to mix with the WAA. IDAGF if I mix on anything I'd get Monday/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerichohill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 39 -> 37 over the last hour here in Del Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I dunno if the original complaint was directed at me, but down here in Charlottesville I just don't want to mix with the WAA. IDAGF if I mix on anything I'd get Monday/Tuesday. Not a complaint - more of a reassurance/observation. I'd think a lot of folks may mix - perhaps not during the early parts of the WAA thump - but as it transitions to the lull period sleet is probable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Not a complaint - more of a reassurance/observation. I'd think a lot of folks may mix - perhaps not during the early parts of the WAA thump - but as it transitions to the lull period sleet is probable. Fair enough -- it's something I should expect. 3k NAM's thump looks great for DC. Lot like it's brother. Not as good in my locale. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Well, on the plus size, WAA looks more sizable on the 18z NAM. So...there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 36.5/15.6 on the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: NAM is blasting the dry slot way further NW then any other guidance. Let’s hope that’s just a NAM mirage. Everything else about this run is better. And it’s slightly better with the dryslot but it’s still ugly and will make it hard to really ramp up the deform once the dry air has blasted that far north. The NAM is in a whole other world in the upper levels and it's low placement is directly over the convection in the Atlantic. Not even the HRRR is that ridiculous. I mentioned this morning, it's either going to score a major coup and every other piece of guidance will be off the rails, or it's on an island won't come back until it's basically beginning the transfer. The WAA piece is at least still pretty solid. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 35 here in Townsend, DE. Few high cirrus but mostly sunny with a breeze. Counting down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: The NAM is in a whole other world in the upper levels and it's low placement is directly over the convection in the Atlantic. Not even the HRRR is that ridiculous. I mentioned this morning, it's either going to score a major coup and every other piece of guidance will be off the rails, or it's on an island won't come back until it's basically beginning the transfer. The WAA piece is at least still pretty solid. The NAM had a much better idea for the December storm because it was less tricky, it got lucky and scored a coup. These hybrid "Miller C" storms with a strong WAA and then a transfer are throwing the NAM off for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 What a firehose into NYC on the 3k. You can see some semblance of the deform rotating into north eastern Maryland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Decent amount of folks concerned about sleet/mixing. I'd think some sleet or mixing is possible for many areas outside of the favored all-snow locations. Don't the bigger storms always tend to mix? We've discussed this extensively in the past. We’ve discussed it extensively (ad nauseam, really) in the past few days, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 40 degrees in the sun here in Western Fairfax around 12 hours till the storm starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I dunno if the original complaint was directed at me, but down here in Charlottesville I just don't want to mix with the WAA. IDAGF if I mix on anything I'd get Monday/Tuesday. Based on prior experience, we will be fine for the first part of this. It has been PLENTY cold today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Fair enough -- it's something I should expect. 3k NAM's thump looks great for DC. Lot like it's brother. Not as good in my locale. On the road... but what was QPF for DCA on both 12km and 3km 18z NAM runs for WAA? Looks like 18z NAM was 0.6" QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, yoda said: On the road... but what was QPF for DCA on both 12km and 3km 18z NAM runs for WAA? Looks like 18z NAM was 0.6" QPF? On TT DCA is over .75 total. It translates to 6-10” total. 3k still chuggin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: On the road... but what was QPF for DCA on both 12km and 3km 18z NAM runs for WAA? Looks like 18z NAM was 0.6" QPF? 3km is more like 0.5” before a mixing threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 37/10 with high clouds to the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: 3km is more like 0.5” before a mixing threat. And the regular 18z NAM reading above posta looks like 6 to 7 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 36/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Anyone know why the 3k NAM are so different between TT and Pivotal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hopefully the NAM continues to be a little too far north with coastal reformation on Monday. Most of the good stuff is well into PA and NJ/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, yoda said: And the regular 18z NAM reading above posta looks like 6 to 7 inches? 0.7” QPF, though I’d use the 3km at this range. 4-6” is looking good. NAMs don’t have much on the back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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