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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.


John1122
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Looking at all the maps that have been posted, the Chattanooga area is oh so close, as usual, for a chance at frozen early next week. It's usually too warm here but a little drop of that lurking cold air can be the difference. This far out it's a toss up. With that said, I found the verbage interesting on the Weather Channel app. I know it's the Weather Channel and their forecast changes with every model run but I found it interesting.bdfe14b49a641381d577020126a668d6.jpg7e64df5b74bac760281766e989b2909b.jpg

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The GFS is getting colder each run with that big early week event. Snow and sleet in Nashville, probably 2 inches of each. 4-6 inches of snow in west Tennessee. Freezing rain east with the sleet line creeping closer. 

Another big storm after for the western areas. NW Tennessee has a 22 inch snow depth 9 days from now. 15 inch depth in Memphis. 

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The 6z GFS had a light mix/icing event Tuesday re: NE TN.  And for the record, the multi-day overrunning event is likely going to verify for this subforum - just  not the NE corner...yet.  Let’s see the trend on modeling for next week before pronouncing E TN out of the picture.  I am not even sure I want any part of an ice storm.  That said, the boundary has slowly pressed eastward for Tuesday.  This is how much modeling has missed the current system regarding SE positioning...I am 4 miles from the latest ice advisory area.  

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45 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 6z GFS had a light mix/icing event Tuesday re: NE TN.  And for the record, the multi-day overrunning event is likely going to verify for this subforum - just  not the NE corner...yet.  Let’s see the trend on modeling for next week before pronouncing E TN out of the picture.  I am not even sure I want any part of an ice storm.  That said, the boundary has slowly pressed eastward for Tuesday.  This is how much modeling has missed the current system regarding SE positioning...I am 4 miles from the latest ice advisory area.  

Echo this, there has been some dramatic easterly shifts on the gfs suites.  It went from running the low west of the apps, to the spine (transfer to asheville), to the 6z that looks just east of the apps to me. It still looks like ktri need the cold to push further east (still our downfall?) but interesting. Is there a mechanism that can extend the cold east by 100 miles or so?

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Mostly rain for the 1st system in East TN after the initial onset of FRZ. Middle/West TN still gets in on all the "fun". 2nd system shifted east some, but still all rain for most of middle TN and all of East TN. West TN still has snow/sloppy mess with some backside snow for west/mid TN.

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1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

How did the UKMET do at range with your Christmas snow?  I feel like I remember the GFs being pretty locked into it from a ways out but I may be remembering wrong 

To be honest, IMO, the UKMET has usually been off in its own little world this winter. I still can't tell if the one I post the precip maps from (F5 wx's UKMET that goes out to hr 168) is any different. The visuals pivotal and F5 create for their respective versions of the UKMET data are so different, that it's hard to tell. 

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