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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.


John1122
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The shifts south and east are determined by blocking over the Great Lakes vs the NAO region. Last night there was a 1040ish high over Minnesota and another in Pennsylvania. The one over Minnesota literally disappeared in 6 hours on the EURO and the storm cut. That run it kept the storm suppressed then got out ahead of it and allowed it to gain latitude. 

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Look at how the HP breaks as the storm attacks:

1qKK4Sz.gif

What's to say the high wouldn't break the other way and the storm run up the coast? 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_6.png

Sure there's no 50/50 to lock the HP in, but we've seen bigger shifts at 5 days out this winter. 

Thing is the HP might get moved...but that is some really cold air that is going to likely get trapped north of I-40 if that is legit.  That is nasty.

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25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I mean, this looks like it should end well...

ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png

We need something to lock the cold air in place.  I don't see that when looking at 500.  It's crazy seeing a storm cut north into a massive high, but when looking at 500mb it doesn't seem impossible.  In fact, where it goes looks more likely than solutions further south and east. 

As @Carvers Gap mentioned, it might be hard for the cold air to scour quickly enough to avoid problems early week (even in east TN), but the environment would warm quickly and change us from frozen to liquid up this way.  Further west in west and middle Tennessee, it might not ever stop throwing ZR in west TN, and the central plains might be nicknamed the new frozen tundra of the lower 48.

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Just now, tnweathernut said:

We need something to lock the cold air in place.  I don't see that when looking at 500.  It's crazy seeing a storm cut north into a massive high, but when looking at 500mb it doesn't seem impossible.  In fact, where it goes looks more likely than solutions further south and east. 

As @Carvers Gap mentioned, it might be hard for the cold air to scour quickly enough to avoid problems early week (even in east TN), but the environment would warm quickly and change us from frozen to liquid up this way.  Further west in west and middle Tennessee, it might not every stop throwing ZR and the central plains might be nicknamed the new frozen tundra of the lower 48.

Thing is...the Para-GFS, UKMET, and CMC are even further SE with the cold boundary with the Euro still trending that way.  This might be a case where the cold makes it to the Apps on Tuesday and banks right up against it.  With a 1046 in that position, the cold would run down the spine of the Apps into the eastern valley unit it gets moved out of the way.  IF, IF that looks is legit....eastern valley could be much colder if the precip gets out in front of the low.  Again, I think this boundary keeps pushing eastward to at least the Apps before the SER beats it back.  

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Another thing to consider, that I've been kicking around in my mind, is the Momentum that's being added to the Polar regions right now (see:

 

Does that aded momentum help push the energy that causes the storm east more quickly (forces it further south and east in its ultimate evolution?), or is the that momentum added too far north to do anything except for the big TPV? 

 

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10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think the 10km UKMET is going to be a sight to behold when it finishes its run out to hr 168, lol. 

Here's how it looks at  hr 120:

VOyLmoW.png

The magnitude of this is jaw dropping honestly.  I realize it’s still a long way out but you don’t see scenarios like this on models everyday!  

 In regards to Holstons second post.  The ice depiction is not something we’d want to see in this setup, the sheer duration of the event/events could lead to devastating outcomes if ice is involved.  

 

 

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Unfortunately, like most systems this winter, I don’t think we’ll get a good consensus until about 3 days before the even so I’m sure we’ll see more waffles over the next couple of days.  I can see justification for more of a NW solution as well as a more southerly/easterly track.

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