Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.


John1122
 Share

Recommended Posts

The CMC reloads the ice pattern again for middle and west TN late in the run.  My guess(and it is only that) is that modeling is underestimating the extend of the cold front.  My gut says that cold slides along the surface for 100-150 miles further than what is shown there - if that model is even right.  I can't decide right now if I want any part of that!!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Give me no part of the GFS at 246 - none at all.   Want no part of that.

Tough thing is, it's been my experience that models scour residual cold artic too fast, so maybe it's worse than depicted at that hour given that bitterly cold air entrenched is harder to rid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the 12z Euro comes on board, likely time for a thread.  This event literally lasts for a week on the GFS.  So, looks like modeling has the cold again.  As BNA notes, really tough to know where that boundary goes.  Might even wait until 0z (to make a thread) to see if modeling continues to hone-in on this.  But this is thread worthy if ever there was one - if it holds.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Holly ice storm on 16th on gfs

Screenshot_20210206-115251_Chrome.jpg

Need a "wow" emoji.   Not a "good wow", but just "wow."  That is craziness.  Might be the only time I am glad to be inside of the little white circle in NE TN.  Quite literally, I would be the only place in TN without ice...ya'll come on over if it gets bad!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Holston_River_Rambler, do you have the ability to make a GIF of the MSLP(not the anomaly, just MSLP) of the 12z GEFS?  There is a 1054 hp on the ensemble over front range in Canada!  The GEFS is just one system after another attacking cold which slowly(and I mean slowly presses eastward).  The MSLP map(I know gif speed is an issue), but I think it does a good job of depicting all of this.   The US or NA view should do it...just whichever one has that big high sling SE.  Thank in advance if you are able and understood if you are too busy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Looking to the skies said:

Those same signals were here on the Gulf coast  less than 36 hours ago. That is how far the cold has been shoved back and warmth pushed up per models thinking. 
 
How many times will this continue? Models sgnal an Arctic outbreak then poof it is magically gone or shoved so far back north it should be counted as their Normal winters

Honestly I love cold and snow but I want no part of this. That ZR would be devastating for my town and my business in Portland Tennessee. The cold temps that followed is what really scares me. The one problem is that middle Tennessee is absolutely due for a devastating ice storm. I have lived here since 2006 and have always been able to avoid the worst during ice storms. 
 

1FA2324D-4354-4794-A106-6ACEB1C68357.thumb.png.9cbe727592bc85a4da7a809f0c6ee9e9.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Carvers Gap

 

giphy.gif

 

No worries, just killing time till lunch and the Euro right now, lol. 

That is awesome and thanks.   What the GEFS depicts is a glacier being built over the MidWest.  The highs migrate to that cold.  What folks can't see on that depiction is that the southern branch keeps attacking the base of that high.  It is non-stop on that run.  I am out to 270 on precip type, and it is just crazy.  Basically the -NAO pushes confluence and cold over this region.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

Honestly I love cold and snow but I want no part of this. That ZR would be devastating for my town and my business in Portland Tennessee. The cold temps that followed is what really scares me. The one problem is that middle Tennessee is absolutely due for a devastating ice storm. I have lived here since 2006 and have always been able to avoid the worst during ice storms. 
 

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c1FA2324D-4354-4794-A106-6ACEB1C68357.thumb.png.9cbe727592bc85a4da7a809f0c6ee9e9.png

Ditto that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

Honestly I love cold and snow but I want no part of this. That ZR would be devastating for my town and my business in Portland Tennessee. The cold temps that followed is what really scares me. The one problem is that middle Tennessee is absolutely due for a devastating ice storm. I have lived here since 2006 and have always been able to avoid the worst during ice storms. 
 

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c1FA2324D-4354-4794-A106-6ACEB1C68357.thumb.png.9cbe727592bc85a4da7a809f0c6ee9e9.png

I live in same area. The Woodlands still show the scars of the last really bad one we had in 1994

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...