Daniel Boone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Winter of 76-77 was similar as far as cold(actually colder January) and being out of School but, although snow was on North facing and shady areas from early Dec. To Mid Feb.. the total was much less with just over 30". The River in Pennington gap froze solid and was snow covered . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Icon through next week. Looks a lot like the Euro a few days ago. . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 49 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said: Don't know how reliable they are, haven't followed TWC much ....? In this pattern, nothing is reliable at that range. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Icon through next week. Looks a lot like the Euro a few days ago. . Just maybe the models are figuring out where the frozen precip will be. Now how much and what type is the next thing to figure out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 FYI... the 18z Para-GFS didn’t run again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z GFS is setting up a multi-day overrunning event. Nearly impossible to know the details at this range, but not a bad look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yep, 0z GFS has a significant overrunning event later next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 0z GFS is setting up a multi-day overrunning event. Nearly impossible to know the details at this range, but not a bad look. Looks like the orientation of the icon no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Bigbald said: Looks like the orientation of the icon no? Quite similar and quite similar to the para gfs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z is depicting multiple waves of wintery precip(the kitchen sink if you will) later next week. Impressive look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Like someone turned a firehose loose on an Arctic boundary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z GFS has some foot totals on the Plateau from multiple events through 222. Pretty much the entire forum area has something. Eastern half gets hammered. We will see if that holds, but the signal for an overrunning event is still apparent on both the 0z GFS and ICON. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 There’s gonna be lots of ups and downs over the next week. It’s all gonna depend on where the arctic boundary sets up shop. Fun times ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Obvious at this point that modeling is struggling to find the Arctic boundary and also the strength of the cold. Still, nice look. BNA got me with the ninja! LOL edit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 TRI has 16" with the Kuchera/WxBell through 252. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 TYS also has 16" through 252. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Besides the snow...this would be devastating to the South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff H Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Check out that high pressure on the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 My favorite look is an arctic boundary with that WSW orientation...as long as it’s far enough south to allow a deeper penetration of an arctic air mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 True Siberian air is very shallow..if modeling is even remotely close, it's either gonna back right against the plateau or the Apps. There's very few instances where I can remember NWS office raising a red flag like CPC did a week in advance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It's amazing the jump that occurred from 12-18z to 0z on most of the models now honing in on the artic boundary, even if alot of the details and precise placement will still vary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Besides the snow...this would be devastating to the South Yeah, total mess. Fill in those blank areas in the sub-forum with either sleet or heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Besides the snow...this would be devastating to the South Close to an 1.00",ice,this is Jackson,MS FS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: HKS LAT= 32.33 LON= -90.22 ELE= 341 00Z FEB05 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 00Z 05-FEB 15.3 9.7 1009 85 55 567 559 FRI 06Z 05-FEB 8.5 6.5 1013 78 56 0.20 564 553 FRI 12Z 05-FEB 2.9 4.5 1016 84 50 0.00 561 548 FRI 18Z 05-FEB 10.3 4.1 1018 46 72 0.00 560 546 SAT 00Z 06-FEB 6.5 3.1 1015 65 79 0.00 561 548 SAT 06Z 06-FEB 4.9 2.8 1017 78 99 0.00 562 548 SAT 12Z 06-FEB 6.0 2.4 1016 79 98 0.00 561 548 SAT 18Z 06-FEB 7.2 4.5 1015 83 94 0.03 560 548 SUN 00Z 07-FEB 7.1 5.7 1011 90 95 0.04 557 548 SUN 06Z 07-FEB 7.3 1.6 1015 94 3 0.03 559 547 SUN 12Z 07-FEB 5.3 4.0 1018 89 7 0.00 564 549 SUN 18Z 07-FEB 9.2 6.6 1020 71 19 0.00 568 551 MON 00Z 08-FEB 7.0 7.5 1020 82 17 0.00 570 553 MON 06Z 08-FEB 3.6 8.9 1022 94 12 0.00 571 554 MON 12Z 08-FEB 2.4 8.8 1021 96 10 0.00 571 553 MON 18Z 08-FEB 13.5 9.2 1021 57 34 0.00 573 555 TUE 00Z 09-FEB 10.4 10.8 1017 77 48 0.00 573 558 TUE 06Z 09-FEB 10.5 10.5 1019 89 12 0.00 575 559 TUE 12Z 09-FEB 11.4 8.2 1017 93 17 0.00 574 559 TUE 18Z 09-FEB 16.3 9.7 1018 82 45 0.00 575 560 WED 00Z 10-FEB 13.1 10.0 1015 95 36 0.02 574 561 WED 06Z 10-FEB 12.5 10.7 1015 97 21 0.00 574 562 WED 12Z 10-FEB 14.0 11.3 1014 99 31 0.00 573 562 WED 18Z 10-FEB 17.9 11.0 1015 93 30 0.02 574 561 THU 00Z 11-FEB 14.0 10.7 1015 93 36 0.01 573 561 THU 06Z 11-FEB 6.4 10.8 1018 90 88 0.01 573 559 THU 12Z 11-FEB 2.7 9.6 1018 93 94 0.12 571 556 THU 18Z 11-FEB 3.1 8.7 1020 90 90 0.02 572 555 FRI 00Z 12-FEB -0.6 9.7 1019 92 98 0.03 570 555 FRI 06Z 12-FEB -3.3 5.5 1022 95 99 0.56 569 552 FRI 12Z 12-FEB -7.4 5.8 1024 93 63 0.23 566 548 FRI 18Z 12-FEB -6.0 2.9 1025 92 44 0.00 565 546 SAT 00Z 13-FEB -6.4 1.5 1024 94 99 0.15 561 542 SAT 06Z 13-FEB -9.4 1.5 1025 96 50 0.01 562 543 SAT 12Z 13-FEB -12.3 0.8 1025 96 31 0.00 562 543 SAT 18Z 13-FEB -7.7 -2.9 1027 94 56 0.00 564 543 SUN 00Z 14-FEB -7.8 -2.3 1027 95 62 0.00 564 543 SUN 06Z 14-FEB -10.3 -2.6 1029 95 11 0.00 565 543 SUN 12Z 14-FEB -12.3 -2.5 1030 94 9 0.00 563 540 SUN 18Z 14-FEB -4.8 -2.7 1032 86 28 0.00 564 539 MON 00Z 15-FEB -7.6 -3.6 1032 93 58 0.00 564 539 MON 06Z 15-FEB -12.3 -6.7 1036 94 6 0.00 564 537 MON 12Z 15-FEB -13.8 -6.7 1037 94 3 0.00 564 536 MON 18Z 15-FEB -2.2 -4.9 1038 85 10 0.00 568 539 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -4.6 -3.6 1036 95 13 0.00 570 542 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -7.7 -1.9 1037 95 7 0.00 572 544 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -8.0 -2.0 1037 93 6 0.00 571 543 TUE 18Z 16-FEB 1.4 -1.6 1037 94 21 0.00 573 544 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Don't assume the western areas of the forum are left out of the frozen fun...mostly sleet and zr in addition to the amounts show. Tellico has already highlighted the ZR threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I saw where someone said this starts Wednesday if we really look at it. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, BNAwx said: There’s gonna be lots of ups and downs over the next week. It’s all gonna depend on where the arctic boundary sets up shop. Fun times ahead. Yep, great post and worth a read by everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wish I could find the surface analysis for this...but a similar situation where you had a 1050 high move from the Rockies east, with a stalled frontal boundary right along the Apps with multiple waves..Jan 29 - Feb 1, 1951. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Wish I could find the surface analysis for this...but a similar situation where you had a 1050 high move from the Rockies east, with a stalled frontal boundary right along the Apps with multiple waves..Jan 29 - Feb 1, 1951. I posted this the other day https://www.weather.gov/ohx/1951icestorm#:~:text=The worst ice storm in,inches of ice and snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I posted this the other day https://www.weather.gov/ohx/1951icestorm#:~:text=The worst ice storm in,inches of ice and snow. Wow. Yikes! I bet they were ready for spring after that mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z GEFS snow totals are impressive for the eastern half of the state. Chattanooga has a roughly 4-5" snow mean, TYS is 6-8", TRI is 8-10", Plateau is roughly 7-8", Nashville is 3-4", Memphis is almost 3", northern sections of the GOM states are 1-3", Arkansas is 3-4", and southern KY is 3.5 -8." That is through 324. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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